VUE Thursday 27 November 2008 Vingstedcentret, Denmark

1. VUEThursday 27 November 2008Vingstedcentret, Denmark Guidance in Scotland – demands, methods and results Vivienne Brown, Head of Policy & Strategy Skills Development Scotland

2. Dynamic times • Globalisation & economic instabilities • UK economic challenges • Social well-being & cultural shifts • Education, employment and skills Reforms • Political elections which defy the pundits • Fast moving technology and changing interpersonal communications

3. Key UK policies and strategies -a critical time… • Leitch Review on skills – others in UK • Economic strategies • NEET and “worklessness” strategies • Increase in vocational learning opportunities in school and beyond • Investment in “Third Sector” • Welfare Reforms and IES

4. Additionally, IAG landscape • Review of Careers Wales • Changes to Connexions and design of new AACS in England • Emergence of Skills Development Scotland from Careers Scotland • Recent new all-age IAG developments and split from ES in Northern Ireland

5. Why do we need a Skills Strategy “Skills development contributes to economic development from which …. other benefits flow, such as social justice, stronger communities & more engaged citizens.” but Scotland’s skills profile and qualification levels are not matched by its economic growth rate • so ..it is not just about more skills… • we need to address the demand for and utilisation of skills

6. Our Vision A smarter Scotland with a globally competitive economy based on high value jobs, with progressive and innovative business leadership • people motivated & confident to learn new skills • small businesses & migrant workers encouraged • employers invest in and access to a skilled workforce • learning & training delivery = one system – barriers removed

7. Approach - Consensus • Skills nested within lifelong learning • Improve employer voice, but not at the expense of the individual • Create demand for skills, not increase the qualifications stockpile

8. Three Priorities • Individual development • Economic pull • Cohesive structures

9. Across the continuum of lifelong learning • A strong start – early years, compulsory education • Developing potential – learning for the world of work for those out of the workforce • Making skills work for Scotland – work based learning & role of employers • Information, advice & guidance – support services • Learner centred funding support

10. Individual Development • Developing a distinctively Scottish Approach- balancing the needs of employers & individuals & placing the individual at the centre • Ensuring equal access to & participation in skills and learning for everyone • Developing a coherent funding structure – that encourages participation & increases choice

11. Economic Pull • Stimulating demand for skills from employers –public & private • Improving skills utilisation • Understanding current & future projected demands for skills • Challenging employers, providers & awarding bodies to use the SCQF

12. Cohesive Structures • Simplify structures - creating one body focused on skills (Creation of Skills Development Scotland) • Ensure Curriculum for Excellence is at the heart of skills acquisition • Achieve parity of esteem between academic & vocational learning • Challenge funding bodies to achieve a step change • Encourage training providers to bridge the gaps for learners

13. Strategic Fit • Sits below: • Government Economic Strategy • Budget • Interacts with: • Local Authority Concordat • Sits alongside: • Existing work • eg MCMC • Upcoming work: • eg:Early Years Strategy; Science Strategy

14. Since Publication • Simplify structures - creating one body focused on skills aSkills Development Scotland • Bringing together learndirect Scotland, Careers Scotland and most the skills and training aspects of Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Island Enterprise

15. Skills Development Scotland client groups • Developing our young people 12-19 • Bringing people into work 20+ • Developing talent in work 20+

16. Canada Challenges and issues • Excellent OECD performance to date hides the underlying issues that there is no growth and no investment at the same levels of competitors in student access to higher education • Lack of engagement with policy-makers and decision-makers for career guidance and development • Disconnect, and policy goal ambiguities, between potentially related policies in education, lifelong learning, social inclusion and economic development

17. Limited recognition that school to post-school transition is critical to life-chances of individuals • Too much emphasis on school-university as the only “real” post-school route, coupled with access-for-all issues • Learner funding directed at middle-class families • Lack of lifelong learning culture, little attention to adult and community - based learners; and no QCF

18. Increasing disconnect between new graduate subject expertise and skills needs of the workforce • Major geographical and distance issues – each province has a varying economy, income levels and educational and skills provision • Unemployment has not been a recognisable concept for Aboriginal people, until now; increasing youth unemployment levels

19. Lack of integration of skilled immigrant workers • Careers Advisers have no “professional” qualifications • There is no government funded careers service – provision associated with and funded through learning institutions. Now a call for setting up an independent, public-funded Careers Service for those not engaged in work or learning.

20. No real public awareness of the role and value of career development • No LMI, no data - sharing, no research to speak of, no pan –Canadian structures to engage discussions, no appetite for change in some quarters, and on-going resultant policy goal ambiguities

21. Who is “under-represented”? A “positional good”? Access to what exactly? Economic or social rates of return? “Widening participation” or “fair access”? Equity or excellence? Merit or need Reputation or quality? Reward or compensation? What is to be done? The top ten issues for access post-school

22. The “access” equation • (Age x Class x [Dis]ability x Ethnicity x Gender x Language x Location x Schooling x Status x Subject) • A “perfect storm:” children in care. See Jackson, Sonia, Ajayi, Sarah and Quigley, Margaret (2005), Going to University from Care.

23. A “positional good”? • “You can only enjoy a positional good if others don’t have it,” The Economist 23.12.06 • “It’s not enough to succeed. Others must fail.” Gore Vidal • “The trouble with fairness is that there isn’t enough to go around.” Guy Browning

24. Percentage change in enrolments by subject area, 1996/7 to 2005/06

25. Likelihood of Excellent Health - Women Institute of Education: Wider Benefits of Learning Group (http://www.learningbenefits.net/Publications/ResearchReports.htm)

26. Likelihood of Educational problems in children Institute of Education: Wider Benefits of Learning Group (http://www.learningbenefits.net/Publications/ResearchReports.htm)

27. Widening participation or “fair access”? In England in 2007: • 80,000 children were eligible for free school meals post 16 • 5,000 of these took A-levels • 3,000 children got 3 “A” grades at A-level • 176 of these were eligible for free school meals Written answer to Parliamentary question by Shadow Children’s Secretary Michael Gove, The Guardian 23.2.08

28. SFC Funding Promoting Wider Access 2008-09 College funding • £14.3M Discretionary Fund and Child Care • £ 4.5M MCMC • £ 1.6M Access and Participation • £20.4M TOTAL HE Funding • £10.2M Widening Access Retention Premium • £ 2.5M Disabled Students Premium • £ 5.1M Access and Participation • £ 3.1M Skills and Employability • £20.9 Total

29. What access issues are not about • Inadequate admissions tutors • Irrational choices by students • Debt aversion • Supply-side defects

30. How can we improve access post school • Improving schools and the schooling experience • Managing parental expectations within school and beyond • National ambitions for Level 3 qualifications • Genuine employer engagement and dialogue • Expert careers Information Advice and Guidance, grounded by LMI

31. Why measure impact? • Does careers guidance and development have an impact? How do we know? • Can we articulate the impact of career guidance and development for individuals and specific projects and at higher policy or national levels? • Can impact determine what contribution career guidance and development can make in key policy areas i.e. economic, social and education?

32. Can impact evidence influence policy from an improved position of knowledge? • Can we create a value for career guidance?

33. Measuring Impact – first steps towards a conceptual impact model • undertook desk research using the available literature on impact of career guidance and development to date, in the UK and beyond • created a set of hypotheses, with potential outcomes, based on the data review • identified the degree of availability of evidence using a traffic light system

34. available evidence was used to estimate the likely effects of career guidance for each inferential statement • we applied a GVA/GDP model of calculation to create an impact value • hypotheses also indicated potential topics for future research

35. Research Study Outcomes • increased knowledge of the impact and value of Careers Scotland based on a developing Conceptual Impact Model • advice on how better to articulate the impact and value of career guidance from a variety of viewpoints for stakeholders, partners, managers, staff and clients

36. identification of gaps in evidence provides opportunity to develop a Careers Scotland Research and Development strategy that can support future impact measurement as part of other research and evaluation

37. consideration of different approaches to widen the evidence base including longitudinal tracking, and other research with partners • build-in impact and value in all future research and evaluation • advice on developing our performance management systems, to improve our own data collection to measure impact

38. Hypotheses - the likely effects of career guidance on inferential statements – Learning Goals Outcomes • greater access to learning and training • greater participation in learning and training • higher retention rates in education and training • greater education and training attainment; and higher level skills • improved motivation and hence attainment in education and training Impacts • higher wage levels through gaining higher qualifications • increased entry rates through having a career focus

39. Hypotheses - the likely effects of career guidance on inferential statements – Economic Goals Outcomes • higher levels of participation in employment • lower levels of unemployment • improved job tenure through increased motivation at work • a more responsive and flexible workforce • improvements in the employability of individuals Impacts • higher wage levels - a long run uplift in wages attributed to career guidance • improved productivity

40. Hypotheses – the likely effects of career guidance on inferential statements - Social Goals Outcomes • increased confidence • increased well being which contributes to health benefits for society • reductions in crime and offending behaviour • greater levels of social inclusion Impacts • reductions in lost earnings and lower productivity through “lost” education and training • reductions in social security, NHS and other public costs

41. Applying a value – GDP/GVA calculations Examples • economic impact - increased workforce participation based on the calculation of an employment differential attributed to career guidance • learning impact - increased attainment levels associated with career guidance and the resulting improved earnings associated with higher levels of attainment

42. social impact - costs avoided including the costs of unemployment • GVA/GDP was calculated, using the evidence available, at more than 5 times Careers Scotland’s current annual budget - approximately £250m

43. Additional Findings – soft indicators The evidence used to develop the hypotheses also showed that career guidance and development: • raises self-confidence and self-belief • improves motivation, well-being and willingness to take calculated risks, based on improved understanding of work and learning goals • supports individuals to set career goals which in turn drives stronger educational ambition and career aspiration

44. often works best in the medium to longer term, and as part of a “package” of support, especially for those from lower socio-economic backgrounds • makes greatest impact on individuals with limited social ‘networks’, irrespective of academic ability • can demonstrate a longer term uplift in wages for those who have career goals and undertaken progressive career development actions, thereby contributing to a lifelong learning and career development culture