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Global Nuclear Scenario Analysis and Planning Project: Towards Sustainable Energy Security

The GAINS project aims to streamline nuclear energy planning by creating scenarios for different world contexts, from region-specific to a global scale. This project focuses on factors like Pu transfer, enriched U supply, thorium cycle management, and nuclear fuel cycle mass balance analysis. The work plan spans from scenario selection to final report compilation, guiding countries on future nuclear capacity and market penetration strategies. The collaboration with OECD/NEA and GNEP ensures consistency and thorough analysis required for a robust energy security framework.

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Global Nuclear Scenario Analysis and Planning Project: Towards Sustainable Energy Security

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  1. Comments on GAINS project 3-5 October 2007 IAEA HQs, Vienna Kiyoshi ONO Japan Atomic Energy Agency

  2. General comments • GAINS project should be worked on as a part of Task 3 for streamlining of our work.- Country scenario, regional scenario and global scenario- Convergent world and heterogeneous world- Creation of scenarios with plot (economics oriented, environment oriented, resources restriction, non-proliferation oriented, etc.)- Pu transfer and enriched U supply are important factors in regional and global scenarios from viewpoints of non-proliferation and energy security.- Perspectives for future nuclear capacity in the countries where nuclear plants aren’t installed at the moment- Management of thorium cycle and MA recycle- Need for benchmark study for calculation code- Relationship and consistencies with the studies or activities of OECD/NEA and GNEP- Sharing the analysis work load with IAEA and member states as far as possible

  3. Proposal for work plan (1/3) 2008/January – 2008/JuneIAEA, ICG - Preliminary analysis for convergent global scenario for scenario selection and calculation code (MESSAGE, VISTA, DESAE) check Member States - Review and compile of future plan for nuclear power plant, fuel cycle plant and initial condition (enriched U stock, Pu stock, spent fuel storage and so on ) of each state - Review of characteristic data of INS components of each state for scenario study, if possible - Nuclear fuel cycle mass balance analysis based on each state scenario, if possible (IAEA code or own code )2008/JuneSecond technical meeting - Scenario selection - Set up assumptions for main analysis for convergent global scenario - Set up assumptions for preliminary analysis for heterogeneous scenario - Confirmation of data transfer format for aggregation of each state scenario

  4. Proposal for work plan (2/3) 2008/July – 2008/DecemberIAEA, ICG - Analysis for convergent global scenario - Preliminary analysis for heterogeneous scenario Member States- Nuclear fuel cycle mass balance analysis based on each state scenario in order to benchmark preliminary analysis for heterogeneous scenario made by IAEA (IAEA code or own code ) 2008/December Third technical meeting - Comparison between convergent global scenario and heterogeneous scenario - Discussion about conditions for transition from heterogeneous scenario to convergent scenario from viewpoints of Pu transfer (proliferation risk), enriched U supply (energy security) and so on. - Contents of final report

  5. Proposal for work plan (3/3) 2009/January – 2009/JuneIAEA, ICG - Analysis for heterogeneous scenario - Draft final reportMember States - Draft final report 2009/JuneFourth technical meeting - Comparison between convergent global scenario and heterogeneous scenario - Discussion about definition ways for enhancing market penetration - Final report2009/DecemberFifth technical meeting - Final report

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