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The Idea and Concept of EFIMAS - Operational evaluation tools for fisheries management options J. Rasmus Nielsen, EFIMAS Coordinator. EFIMAS Project – EU FP6 SSP8-CT-2003-50251. EFIMAS - Operational Evaluation Tools for Fisheries Management Options
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The Idea and Concept of EFIMAS - Operational evaluation tools for fisheries management options J. Rasmus Nielsen, EFIMAS Coordinator
EFIMAS Project – EU FP6 SSP8-CT-2003-50251 EFIMAS - Operational Evaluation Tools for Fisheries Management Options EFIMAS: EU FP6 Financed Project. Project period: 2004-2008. Total Project Budget:7.5 Mill. EURO (EU Financing: 4.5 Mill. EURO) Intenational Coordinator:DIFRES Participants (29 Research Institutes and Universities): Fisheries Biological Institutes: 16 national institutes (4 universities now) & 1 university participating Bio-economical Institutes: 7 national institutes & 5 universities participating
Overall Concept and objectives of EFIMAS • To establish a bio-economic Fisheries Management Evaluation Framework • Simulation framework being able to run stochastic simulations • Take account of dynamics of the fisheries system including fleet dynamics and • interactions, economic effects and sociological effects besides biological stock • effects (i.e. fleets and stocks - not only stocks) • Which can compare the performance of a range of management options under • alternative management systems and objectives (scenario evaluation) • Which can evaluate alternative management strategies (MSE), • e.g. mixed fisheries • Which can be applied and implemented to a number of EU Fisheries systems • Which can be evaluated: • technical evaluation (uncertainty, robustness and sensitivity assessment) • sociological process evaluation through feed-back from stakeholders
EFIMAS Project Structure Structure and Work Package Cyclic Feed-back WP1 Project management (DIFRES) WP2 Knowledge review (AZTI) WP3 Generic framework development (CEFAS / DIFRES) WP5 Evaluation (IFM) WP4 Case study application (IMARES, DIFRES, CEMARE)
WP2: Review of Global and European Knowledge Basis to be used in EFIMAS Objectives / Deliverables: - review of relevant available knowledge base - review performance of relevant existing fisheries management systems - review existing frameworks for evaluation of fisheries management systems - review how management decision making processes are informed by knowledge and the limitations in communicating knowledge
WP2 Productions and Dissemination • Book in ELSEVIER Science Series 2006 • “The Knowledge Base for Fisheries Management” • Technical Report on “Review and compilation of published • relevant evaluations of management systems (world • wide), and review and description of present • management and management decision-making • process (EU)”. • Annex Report 1: “Overview of models, data and software • used in contrasting Fisheries Management Systems” • which are described in the main Technical Report.
Section I: Global Experiences with Management Systems Relevant to Europe • Each chapter reviews a different management approach with special attention to its implications • E.g. shared stocks, rights based systems, co-management, TAC- • regimes, effort based regimes • It discusses the strengths and weaknesses encountered in each approach’s implementation process • It addresses implications of how scientific advice is created, disseminated and used in decision-making • Chapters 1-7
Section II: Issues Relevant to the European Level • Review of cross-cutting issues and advisory / manage- • ment aspects relevant to European fisheries management • E.g. policy making, participatory management, ecological side effects of fishing, fisheries based advice, requirements for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management, complex advice to multiple stakeholders, non-compliance aspects • Chapters 8-14
Section III: Issues Relevant to the European Level • This includes: • Discuss scenario modelling techniques as support for fisheries • management strategies evaluation • It describes how the knowledge base relates to decision-making • (i.e. how assumptions are made explicit and how focus stakeholder discussions can be included) • Discuss different (existing relevant) evaluation frameworks of fisheries management procedures and management strategies • Chapters 15-16
WP 3 Generic Management Evaluation Framework • Objectives / Deliverables: • Provide simulation framework(s) to test alternative management • options / strategies • Provide software package(s) with full operating simulation models • comprehending the biological and technical / economic dynamics • (stock dynamics, fleet dynamics, technical interactions, etc). • - Provide an integrated suite of software within a common language • and interface and with full documentation
OPERATING MODEL Represents the “true” dynamics of the system against which performance will be measured MANAGEMENT PROCEDURE Assess status of stock and set management options depending upon perceived status of fishery stock(s) MODEL CONDITIONING Management decision stage Fleet dynamics FLFleet Management procedure FLHCR Biological reference points (e.g. MSY) FLBRP IMPLEMENTATION MODEL FLEcon INITIAL CONDITIONS SUMMARY STATISTICS Used to evaluate performance of management procedures against objectives. Population biology Assessment procedure Stock dynamics FLBiol OBSERVATION ERROR MODEL Generation of data on fishery and stocks. FLOEM Perceived stock FLStock Stock assessment (e.g. VPA) FLAssess Stock processes e.g. Recruitment FLSR Auxiliary information (e.g. tuning indices) FLIndices Assessment assumptions
FLR is a framework e.g. a library of “lego blocks” which can be used to build different case specific models, and allows collaboration since anybody can design new lego blocks (object oriented). It is “Open Source” all source code is available Uses an existing interface and statistical/graphical R tools The FLR library is based upon R and the S4 Classes The EFIMAS and FLR Approach
The established Evaluation Framework(s) • Consists of several simulation tools • - case specific models are developed for 9 case studies representing • important EU Fisheries and addressing different general and typological • management problems in European fisheries management • Developed in cooperation with other projects: • with overlapping case studies (e.g. COMMIT using FLR); • other projects with other purposes • (e.g. PROTECT evaluating closed areas / seasons using TEMAS, ISIS-FISH), • (e.g. UNCOVER/BECAUSE integrating multi-species aspects using SMS, 4M, FLR), • (e.g. FISBOAT using FLR and other models for research survey evaluation) • Results in Technical Reports and at EFIMAS Web Sites: • EFIMAS DokuWiki: http://wiki.difres.dk/efimas/doku.php?do=login&id=efimas • FLR Web Site: http://www.flr-project.org/doku.php • EFIMAS PublicWeb Site: http://www.efimas.org/ • Development and status described at the FLR website with the whole evaluation framework and case • study implementation http://flr-project.org/doku.php • In particular the summary of packages http://flr-project.org/doku.php?id=pkg:packages
STOCHASTIC INPUT FROM OPERATING ECOSYSTEM MODEL Feedback Parameters numbers Random Fishing Yield (weight BIOLOGICAL/TECHNICAL mortality of catch) Output Output Parameters MODEL F Y attributes attributes Characteristics Characteristics Effort SHORT TERM E MANAGEMENT Feedback EVALU- BEHAVIOUR MODEL Choices V = Y * Price PROCEDURES By metier / area (Effort allocation) ATION Characteristics attributes Revenue cost of (Value of ECONOMIC MODEL fishing catch) Effort by vessel Parameters C (costs and earnings) v Parameters Fleet Capacity LONG TERM Parameters BEHAVIOUR MODEL Entry-Exit (Investment/disinvestment) (Number of vessels) Economic para- Price meters (Value/Kg) Biological para- meters EFIMAS/PROTECT, Baltic Sea: Operating model of the TEMAS Evaluation Frame Management measures Measures of performance F=Q*E Measures of performance C=E*(unit cost) Management measures Feedback From Ulrich, Andersen, Sparre and Nielsen 2007, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 64: 647-651
WP4: Application of the framework to selected case studies and case specific analyses • Purpose: • to apply and test the evaluation framework on case studies • to apply descriptive fisheries / stocks assessment models and analysis tools • to analyse the biological and economical-technical dynamics for case studies • to evaluate relevant management scenarios • to further develop existing descriptive models and tools for the evaluation frame • to develop further the contents of the framework by testing on case studies • (including documentation and user-interface)
WP5: Evaluation (and Dissemination) • Objective • Technical and process evaluation of the evaluation framework • Provision of feed back from e.g. stakeholders for Work Packages 3 and 4 • Technical Evaluation • - done mainly through case studies (WP4/WP3 in cooperation with WP5) • Evaluation of the framework and descriptive models through: • - uncertainty assessment (repeated simulation) • - sensitivity and robustness (alteration of (key) parameters) • - predictive power (scenario evaluation) • - identification of limitations in use and set-up of the models • - proof reading and testing of code
WP3 / WP4 : Uncertainty estimation • Through simulations in case studies evaluate: • Structure and process errors (structural uncertainty) • Observation errors (parametric uncertainty) • - Implementation error • The framework(s) perform uncertainty assessments by stochastic • simulation of these errors (concerning biological, economical and • fleet based parameters); sensitivity and robustness analysis • (identify and estimate most sensitive factors / key parameters)
WP5: Results / Status of work • Process Evaluation: • Interviews have been carried out with decision makers who make use • of bio-economic models • Five focus groups have been held in each of 5 countries with several • meetings in all countries with different stakeholders • - UK, Ireland, Spain, Denmark and Greece • Targeted groups: skippers, processors, women in fishing societies, • local and regional managers, and conservationists. • Discussed perceptions of fisheries models in general and the EFIMAS • approach in particular
Evaluation framework field testing in multiple stakeholder environments
Evaluation framework field testing in multiple stakeholder environments and dissemination • The modelling tools, simulations and scenario evaluations have been • used in several ICES and STECF WGs and presented to RACs • The evaluation tools are tested through about 10 presentations and • modelling exercises with fisheries management stakeholders focused • on specific existing management problems • These experiences will be shared among stakeholders and with managers • among other at the EFIMAS Conference, 11-12 March 2008, Brussels • Additionally dissemination through many scientific peer reviewed • journal papers and book chapters, reports, conference and meeting • documents, leaflets/flyers, courses, workshops, and web sites.
Dissemination (WP3 / WP4) • Multi-disciplinary capacity building and network of excellence • A number of Training Courses in R and FLR has been held in a • number of EU institutes and in ICES • (Training in management strategies evaluation methods and tools) • A number of Workshops in relation to OM reviews • A number of Workshops with special issues have been held; • Workshop on behavioral models (short term / long term); • Workshops on OM Development and Implementation • Workshop on conditioning OM’s and full feed-back simulation • A number of Economy Workshops (ECONOWS) have been held • to agree on economic OM and FLEcon Development • (Additional ECONOWS workshops will follow up upon this).
Conclusions • Development and implementation of a functional bio-economic Fisheries • Management Evaluation Framework and Models (in coop. with other projects) • Take account of both stock dynamics and fisheries dynamics and fleet • interactions in a full bio-economic evaluation • These can be further developed, adapted, modified and implemented freely • FLR as the main methodological carrier (object oriented, open source) • Practical Implementation: Implemented in case studies, and several case • studies have been applied in practice (RACs, STECF, ICES) • Publication in many scientific papers, Dissemination and Stakeholder feed-back • among other obtained at the EFIMAS Conference • Framework and network development on Economics • through ECONOWS • Multi-disciplinary network / Platform establishment (cross sectoral)
WP3: Results / Tasks (in coop. w. WP4) • Software framework establishment and testing • Application to case studies and cyclic feed-back process to case studies • Setting up case specific operating models and conditioning i.e. • Form, contents and equations for dynamic processes adapted to CSs • Through simulations in case studies evaluate: • - Structure and process errors (structural uncertainty) • - Observation errors (parametric uncertainty) • - Implementation error • The frameworks perform uncertainty assessments by stochastic • simulation of these errors (concerning biological, economical • and fleet based parameters); sensitivity and robustness analysis • (identify and estimate most sensitive factors/ key parameters) • Case specific evaluation of alternative management scenarios: • Management strategy (or management option) evaluation through scenario • evaluation of alternatives in order to evaluate their relative performance
WP4: Results / Status of work - General and key management problems identified and described by case study - Delivery Matrices by case study (dimensions, processes, ext. drivers by OM, management procedures, alternative management strategies) - Needed input data retrieved (stocks, fisheries, advice, management, etc.) - Data analyses performed with selected descriptive analysis tools - OMs established for all case studies; economic OM’s to be elaborated further on by input from ECONOWS - Simulations with the OM’s in the framework either ongoing or completed for all case studies - Results of simulations and OM structure have been reported and in many case integrated into ICES and STECF Working Groups and RAC’s
Issue Stakeholders Greenland Halibut NAFO Management Strategy Evaluations (MSE) for demersal mixed round fish fisheries in the North Sea The EU Commission (through STECF) (North Sea RAC) Selectivity patterns and discards* (IMPSEL) Danish Authorities DFA Evaluation of closed areas in the Baltic Baltic RAC Salmon management ICES WG Mediterranean Swordfish Fishers and local managers Northern Hake HCRs North Western Waters RAC Long term management scenarios South Western Waters RAC North Sea haddock revised management plan (also herring and saithe?) NSRAC? Generic Management Plans The EU Commission (through STECF) Flatfish Plan* NS RAC