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Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model

Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model. Z.Klimont ( klimont@iiasa.ac.at ) Center for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) Emission Inventory Compilers and Users Workshop 13 th May 2013, Istanbul, Turkey. Typical IIASA -GAINS model use.

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Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model

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  1. Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model Z.Klimont (klimont@iiasa.ac.at) Center for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) Emission Inventory Compilers and Users Workshop13th May 2013, Istanbul, Turkey

  2. Typical IIASA-GAINS model use Emissions, costs Control costs • Understanding/reproducing reported emissions, • Projecting emissions, • Assessing mitigation potential, • Calculating control costs, • Assessing impacts and searching for cost-optimal strategies considering constraints/targets • In all elements listed above we benefit from your and other stakeholders’ work and collaborate with other EMEP centers Baseline emissions Mitigation potential time

  3. The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework(Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies) The RAINS model(Regional Acidification Information and Simulation)

  4. Central question for policy makersExample: Revision of European air quality policy To what level should the emissions of air pollutants be reduced in the year 2020? • Where will emissions and effects be in 2020 without further policies? • What reductions are technically feasible? • How much do they cost? – optimal/non-optimal • Who (which countries) pays? • How much are they willing to pay? • Who benefits? • Is it enough? • Is it fair?

  5. Scope for further environmental improvements in the UNECE area: 4(6) effects Expected achievements of current policy; relative to 2000 Closing the gap Scope

  6. Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution):Health impacts PM2.5 2010 Years of life lost 2020 CLE Loss in statistical life expectancy (months) Baseline implies ~5 months shortening of statistical life expectancy after 2020 Additional MTFR measures could save ~55 million years of life ofEuropean population 2030 MCE

  7. Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution):Emission reductions in central scenario: NH3 Key measures: • Efficient (‘low emission’) application of urea fertilizer • Low nitrogen feed (pigs, dairy cows, poultry) • Low emission application of livestock manures; liquid and solid • Closed storage of manures and new low emission housing (pigs, poultry)

  8. The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework(Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)

  9. Co-control of GHGs and air pollutantsAnnex I parties of UNFCCC, 2020 Source: IIASA GAINS http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

  10. Considering co-emission of pollutants at technology level results in different mixes (ratios) of pollutants depending on chosen strategyExample: Mitigation potentials in 2030 in in two scenarios developed in UNEP (2011) study Source: IIASA GAINShttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at

  11. BC emissions in the EU-27, baseline, relative change and thousand tons [total] Source: GAINS model

  12. Courtesy of Jessica McCarty, Michigan Tech Research Institute GFED FINN McCarty (Agr) McCarty (Crop)

  13. Incomplete wish list… for discussion in the afternoon? National vs international databases: how to improve consistency, e.g, non-commercial fuelwood use, How to improve spatial allocation of some sources, e.g., inland navigation TFEIP repository of national, often not peer-reviewed, studies? More regular involvement of remote sensing and inverse modelling community, Strengthen collaboration with other regional and global inventory activities (developers and users), e.g. MACCity, GEIA, HTAP, etc.

  14. More details and background available from: • General GAINS policy portal:http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/MitigationofAirPollutionandGreenhousegases/Overview.en.html • GAINS model: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at • UNECE Gothenburg Protocol revision work • http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-revision • Review of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP); towards revision of National Emission Ceiling Directive (NECD) • http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/tsap

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