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Recent Changes in the Arctic and the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH). Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Science Workshop on Arctic Climate February 20-21, 2003. James Morison Polar Science Center Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington
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Recent Changes in the Arctic and the Study of Environmental Arctic Change(SEARCH)
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Science
Workshop on Arctic Climate
February 20-21, 2003
Polar Science Center
Applied Physics Laboratory
University of Washington
Seattle, Washington USA
Weakening global thermohaline circulation
Fresher Pacific-Derived Water
Saltier Atlantic-Derived Water
From Morison, J. H., K. Aagaard, and M. Steele, 2000, Recent Environmental Changes in the Arctic: A Review, Arctic, 53, 4.
NPEO ’00 & ‘01 Hydrographic Surveys
Fresher at Coast
Morison et al., 2002, EOS, in press.
Warm air over
Atlantic Water in
Low pressure spins up Polar Vortex, brings warm air to Greenland Sea and Russian Arctic
Rising AO means lowers atmospheric pressure over the Arctic.
Thompson and Wallace, 1998)
From: Furevik, Chapman Conference, 2002
1973 LOW AO
Concentration of Atlantic Water tracer (%) averaged over depth of 180-560 m for repeated 1973 forcing (Maslowski et al, 2000)
1993 HIGH AO
Concentration of Atlantic Water tracer (%) averaged over depth of 180-560 m for repeated 1993 forcing (Maslowski et al., 2000)
Model Suggests: Yes
a) 1979 - 88 mean
Shift in drift axis, increase in drift speeds, increased lateral melt
b) 1989 - 96
Ice Budget Differences*
(89 to 96) - (79 to 88)
Vert. Growth 0.0
Lateral Melt - 0.6
Export - 0.7
Ice Production -1.3
* (1012 m3 yr-1)
Reduced residence time, production and average thickness
c) = b) - a)
Zhang, Rothrock and Steele, 2000, Recent changes in Arctic sea ice: the interplay between ice dynamics and thermodynamics, J. Clim., 13, 3099-3114.
Simulations suggest spin up of the Polar Vortex is part of greenhouse warming response.
(Fyfe et al.,1999)
Observed - earlier and larger than simulated
Yes, or changes may indicate what’s to come.
Ice Extent at End of August
Ice extent negatively correlated with AO (Rigor et al, 2002)
Large-scale Atmospheric Observations
Distributed Marine Observatories
Distributed Terrestrial Observatories
*Circumarctic Environmental Observatories
ASR - Arctic System Reanalysis
- International membership on SSC and Panels
- International SEARCH Working Groups (e.g., ASOF)
- Affiliation with large international programs (e.g., IASC, IGBP, International CLIVAR)
- SEARCH-IASC International Symposium in 2005
- Understanding - DQU, ASR and LGC
- Archipelago through flow - ASOF and FWI
DAO (e.g., CFS Alert)
DTO (e.g., CEON sites)
DMO (e.g., Alert and NPEO)