Integrated Assessment of Socio-economic Risks of Hydrological Phenomena in Russian Coastal Zones

1. Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas Lomonosov Moscow State University Faculty of Geography Natural Risk Asessment Laboratory (NRAL) Vyacheslav Baburin Stepan Zemtsov

2. Object and purpose • Object – aqua-territorialsystems • Subject– influence of natural processes (flood, underflooding, surges) on aqua-territorial systems • Purpose – an estimation of influence (risk and damage assessment) of natural processes on aqua-territorial systems

3. Coastalzonesof Leningrad region (Leningradskayaoblast) Municipal districts and main cities of Krasnodar region (Krasnodarsky kray)

4. The basic concept of Russian approach Natural hazards Flood Heavy rain Surge Ice Waterlogging Antroposphere Ecological sphere Technosphere • Infrastructure • Fixed funds Aqua-territorial socio-economicsystem Sociosphere 1. Socio-demographicparameters 2. Ecomomicparameters 3. Political-administrative parameters 4. Cultural parameters Psychologicalsphere

5. Databases • Estimation of potential damages for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones from flood, underflooding and surges • Methodology: calculation of potential damage • Indicators: population, capital assets, building area, the value of land and real estate, GRP, etc. • Information Base: Rosstat, satellite images, maps, reports of economic units • Vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region during floods, underflooding and surges • Methodology: calculation of vulnerability index • Indicators: population, capital assets, infrastructure, industry, tertiary sphere, etc. • Information base: Rosstat, ministries and departments, Administration of Krasnodar Region and municipalities

6. Methods of damage and vulnerability assessment

7. WorldRiskIndex approach. Selected indicators from database

8. Exposure and vulnerability indeces

9. Key results • Database (Excel format) of potential flood damage for the Baltic Sea region was prepared • Methodology of potential damage estimation was developed. • Potential damage assessment to dangerous hydrological processes was conducted for coastal zones of Baltic sea • The article was prepared (in Russian). • Database (Excel format) of social vulnerability to dangerous hydrological phenomena in coastal municipalities of Krasnodar region was prepared • Index of vulnerability has been calculated for coastal municipalities of Krasnodar region using the methodology of the UN University. • The article was published in Russian and was prepared in English

10. Development of integrated risk assessment methods for river basins of Krasnodar Region • Potential results: • 1. Integrated databases for population and economic entities of Krasnodar Region. • 2. The surveys of population and expert interviews. • 3. Reaction model of territorial socio-economic system to unfavorableand dangerous natural phenomena in the basins of Krasnodar region. • Expedition: “Multifactor vulnerability assessment for socio-economic systems of coastal municipalities to dangerous hydrological phenomena” • Object of study: Slavyansk municipal district of Krasnodar region. • Stagesand methods: •  1. Preparatory. • Collect detailed statistics on study areas, prepare questionnaire for survey and experts • Prepare natural risks maps (in hydrology) at the settlement level • The calculation of potential property damage and possible loss of life to various levels of flooding • 2. Field trip • a. Survey areas - verification assessment of material damage. • b. Survey of the local population. • c. Meeting with representatives of the administration, emergency, local scientists. • 3. Cameral. • a. Poll data analysis (SPSS): identification of populations, areas, etc. • b. Mapping for damage and vulnerability. • c. Preparation of recommendations for changes to legislation for coastal zones (including the prohibition of living and raising insurance premiums on the most dangerous sections). • Large-scale maps of settlements in different areas of flooding risk, speed of evacuation, placement of hazard warning objects, etc.

11. Thank you for your attention!