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Using econometric modeling to increase Net tuition revenue

Using econometric modeling to increase Net tuition revenue. June 14, 2012. Introduction…. Tim Schuldt Camden High School ‘04 St. Lawrence University ‘08 (Go Saints!) Statistical Analyst – Scannell & Kurz Fun fact…. A Couple Questions…. 2 year institutions? 4 year institutions?

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Using econometric modeling to increase Net tuition revenue

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  1. Using econometric modeling to increase Net tuition revenue June 14, 2012

  2. Introduction… Tim Schuldt Camden High School ‘04 St. Lawrence University ‘08 (Go Saints!) Statistical Analyst – Scannell & Kurz Fun fact…

  3. A Couple Questions… • 2 year institutions? 4 year institutions? • Central NY? Western NY? North country? • Challenges with NTR? • Challenges with retention?

  4. New Year, Same Questions… • How do we get them to come? • How do we get them to stay? • What factors contribute to a student making those decisions? • How big of an impact does grant have on those decisions?

  5. Same Questions, New Answers… • Unlike table analysis, econometric modeling controls for the influence of multiple variables, holding other variables constant. • Each individual student will be assigned an estimated probability of enrollment/retention that is a function of individual student characteristics.

  6. Sample Enrollment Probability Model

  7. Elasticity Tells You Which Side Of The Peak You Are On Elastic Inelastic

  8. Exploring Price Sensitivity • Econometric modeling can help an institution assess the tradeoffs between institutional enrollment goals by: • Providing information on the price sensitivity of different subpopulations • Assessing the maximum NTR that can be generated with the current applicant pool • Simulating how much NTR would need to be forgone in order to achieve institutional goals for quality, diversity, program mix, etc.

  9. Same Year, More Questions… • Now that they are here, what can we do to get them to stay? • How can we target at-risk students? • Does grant drive their decision to retain as much as it does to enroll? (the answer might surprise you…)

  10. A Different Approach • Retention analysis takes a slightly different path. • Table analysis provides a solid base for modeling. • Models are built based on first term grade point average. • Two models are built to look at overall retention as well as at-risk students.

  11. Questions?

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