PORTUGAL Álvaro Martins CEEETA ISEG - Technical University of Lisbon (Member of the technical team in charge of the National Program for Climate Change)
1. INTRODUCTION • On May 2000 the Portuguese Government has defined the main guidelines to prepare the National Program on Climate Change (NPCC). • Under the leadership of the Environment Institute (Environment Ministry) a technical team was created having as main objective the elaboration of the National Program on Climate Change till the end of 2002.
2. National Program for Climate Change - METHODOLOGY • Using as baseline an energy simulation demand model, projections of the main GHG emitted by the energy sector for the period 2000-2015 have been prepared; • ii) A first document has been published on December 2001 as a basis for public discussion; • A set of Policies and Measures have been proposed as a basis for discussion with the economic agents and with the public services responsible for sector policies; • iii) A new version of the NPCC will be prepared till the end of 2002, after a more complete assessment of the GHG emissions, of the policies, measures and instruments to fulfil the Portuguese targets from the burden share agreement.
3. GHG PROJECTIONS – Scenarios methodology • Social, economic and technological scenarios have been extensively used in the past for energy planning purposes. • A very complete exercise of long term scenario building has been carried out in Portugal in 1994/1995, which is still a reference. • In 1999 one of the scenarios published in 1995 has been retained and improved in order to be considered as a basis for energy modelling. This scenario has been considered for the first version of the NPCC. • The long term scenarios are not defined on a regular basis.
3. GHG PROJECTIONS – Scenarios methodology Macroeconomic scenarios Ministry of Economy – Planning Department Energy demand scenarios General Direction for Energy Energy supply GHG from outside the energy sector Emission projections P&M Targets
3. GHG PROJECTIONS – Scenarios methodology Industrial sectors considered:
4. GHG PROJECTIONS - the 1999 long term scenario (2000-2020) 1995 macro-economic scenarios GNP growth rates
5. MODELLING • Besides de economic models used in scenario building, an energy simulation model is used to analyse energy final demand and estimate the emissions of GHG. • For the centralized electricity supply we rely and criticise the results published by the National Grid obtained from optimisation models of the electric sector. • A methodology for optimal policy design and estimation of shadow prices is not yet available.
5. MODELLING • The main driving variables for energy consumption are: • - population, income and specific energy consumptions (technology), for the residential sector, • - value added for the productive sectors, • - mobility, infrastructure development, specific consumptions, for the transport sector, • - hypothesis on technology, energy price system and behaviour are also part of the scenarios.
6. PRELIMINARY RESULTS A “base line” or “business as usual” scenario is defined. As “base line” we consider a scenario where policies, measures and instruments embodied do not take into account the Kyoto targets for Portugal. It includes P&M already in operation in May 2001. These projections, produced in 1999, will be updated during 2002. +46% (a) including carbon sinks.
7. POLICIES AND MEASURES • The following policies and measures have been proposed for public discussion. • They are classified as: • Immediate P&M • Those P&M recently approved or being studied but not considered in the base line scenario; • Additional P&M • New P&M necessary to fulfil the Portuguese emission targets.
REFERENCES • Direcção-Geral de Energia (1995) – Energia 1995-2015, Estratégia para o sector energético, September 1995. • Direcção-Geral de Energia (1999a) - A procura de energia em Portugal 2000-2020 – Sector dos Transportes, (working paper) DSPAE/DP, June 1999. • Direcção-Geral de Energia (1999b) - A procura de energia em Portugal 2000-2020 – Sector Industrial, (Working paper) DSPAE/DP, June 1999 • GASA-DCEA-FCT (2000) – Emissão e controlo de gases com efeito de estufa em Portugal. Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do Território, Março 2000 • Instituto do Ambiente (2001) - Programa Nacional Para as Alterações Climáticas, December 2001 • Instituto do Ambiente (2001) - Programa Nacional Para as Alterações Climáticas – estudos de base para a fundamentação do programa, December 2001
REFERENCES • Information on the energy scenarios, hypothesis and parameters used are available from reports published by Direcção-Geral de Energia (1995) (1999). • The National Inventories are available at www.dga.min-amb.pt. • The Portuguese National Program for Climate Change (2001) can be downloaded from www.dga.min-amb.pt.