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Crop Outlook

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  1. Crop Outlook Farm Management In-Service Ames, Iowa Oct. 11, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. Source: USDA-NASS

  4. Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range Translates to a yield around 160 bu. Source: USDA-NASS

  7. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  8. Source: USDA-NASS

  9. Source: USDA-NASS

  10. Within a bushel of each other Source: USDA-NASS

  11. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  12. Corn – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  13. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  14. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  15. La Niña Winter Source: NOAA

  16. Clearing Old Stocks The current stocks set-up is reminiscent of the transition between the 2006 and 2007 crops. Source: USDA

  17. Historical Export Levels Week 5 of marketing year Source: USDA, FAS

  18. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  19. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  20. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  21. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  22. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  23. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  24. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  25. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  26. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Right now, futures are in $5 range for 2010 and 2011 corn

  27. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Futures are nearly $11 for 2010 and 2011 beans

  28. This Year Corn $4.70 Soy $10.51

  29. Thoughts for 2010 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • Yield and production effects of Midwestern moisture and temperature • Stocks: 2009 vs. 2010 crop • South America: La Niña impacts • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed? • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.00, Soy $10.75 Futures: Corn $5.01, Soy $10.96 • 2011/12: Futures: Corn $4.93, Soy $10.88

  30. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/