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2012 Crop Market Outlook

2012 Crop Market Outlook. Coleman Research Group Presentation Apr. 12, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. ?. Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. ?.

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2012 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation Apr. 12, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections

  5. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Crop Intentions Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Corn Intentions Source: USDA-NASS

  9. Soybean Intentions Source: USDA-NASS

  10. Winter Wheat Plantings Source: USDA-NASS

  11. Durum Wheat Intentions Source: USDA-NASS

  12. Spring Wheat Intentions Source: USDA-NASS

  13. Historical Performance Source: USDA-NASS

  14. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  15. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  16. World Wheat Production Source: USDA

  17. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  18. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  19. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 4/10/2012

  20. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  21. Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  22. Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  23. Change of Export Pace

  24. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  25. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE, EIA

  26. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  27. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  28. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  29. Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price

  30. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  31. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

  32. Projected ‘12 Season-Average Wheat Price

  33. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Supply/demand concerns • Intentions vs. plantings • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?

  34. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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