Clim-Run: T ourism in Croatia

1. Clim-Run: Tourism in Croatia Čedo Branković Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) Grič 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia (cedo.brankovic@cirus.dhz.hr) Caroline Brosy, Marjana Gajić-Čapka, Ivan Güttler, Kristian Horvath, Vladimir Kalinski, Robert Pašičko, Mirta Patarčić, Melita Perčec-Tadić, Lidija Srnec, Ksenija Zaninović

2. Summary on Croatia’s tourism: * Most of Croatia’s tourism is based on sun and sea - 96% of the tourism trade is generated in the Adriatic counties which have the most favourable climate * The structure of tourist facilities is very uneven - Nearly 50% of beds are available in private households, 25% in camps and only 13% in hotels (of which 4* and 5* hotels make only 40%) * The tourism sector permanently employs about 95,000 - 7% of country’s total work force. * In 2012, the total number of arrivals was 11.5 millions - About one third in private households - Total spending accumulated to 7.3 billion Euros * Croatia’s tourism is characterised by pronounced seasonality – In 2012, 87% of nights was realised in the period June to September

3. Summary of replies to tourism questionnaire: Respondents: - 7 interviews, 9 county tourism associations, 7 atthe 1st Workshop (over 60 invitations!) - Ministry of Tourism, Croatian National Tourist Board, 1 national park, 3 hotel groups, 1 local community, Institute for Tourism, consultancy company, health tourism expert, independent consultant Replies: - Climate variability and extreme events affect business activities (except one!) - Climate-related risks are important or very important - Of most importance are droughts, water quality, storms, atmospheric pollution, loss of biodiversity, coastal erosion, sea level rise - But also: extreme events, inter-seasonal variability and change of length of (holiday) season, i.e. the beginning and the end of season - Most of respondents use only daily weather forecasts! - The future climate change are envisaged to have largest impact on outdoor activities (including camping), investment in energy efficiency and may pose a threat to natural attractiveness (e.g. in national parks) - Most important climate parameter is precipitation (about 75% of all responses) followed by temperature, extreme weather events and winds

4. Product development: * Defining stakeholders’ needs - Based on the questionnaire replies, it was possible to only broadly define stakeholders’ needs - For many users, extension of the peak season to shoulder seasons is the most “appealing” consequence of potential climate change - climate change should not be always associated with negative connotation - Croatia may be in a relatively better position when compared with other Mediterranean competitors - A comprehensive measure that defines a human (instinctive) perception of climate at certain location (for various time intervals) - based on fact that most tourists appreciate climate through the sense of comfort (or pleasure) - tourist comfort index (TCI) - or any derivative - for both present and future climate seems to be a quantity that would appropriately satisfy needs of most tourism stakeholders in Croatia - it could be defined for any location (region) and any time period (week, month, season) - it may look complex (because it includes various climatic parameters) but there are ways to make it simple and widely acceptable

5. Product development: * PET – Physiologically Equvalent Temperature (thermal impact on humans) - Derived from the equation of thermal balance between human body and the environment - Easy interpretation of results - Includes thermal sensation scale ranging from “very cold” to “very warm” Rovinj y-axis: percentage of days Zadar Mali Lošinj Dubrovnik Hvar Ksenija Zaninović (DHMZ)

6. very poor marginal ideal unacceptable acceptable Product development: * CIT – Climate Index for Tourism – integrates thermal, aesthetic and physical parts - Thermal part measures energy balance human body-atmosphere - Aesthetic part is sky condition: from clear to overcast - Physical components are wind and rain - CIT describes quality of climate conditions for activities for which it is specifically designed Rating class CIT for cycling Ksenija Zaninović (DHMZ)

7. Rovinj Beach tourism Mali Lošinj Zadar Hvar Dubrovnik Product development: * Examples of CIT One location – various activities One activity – various locations Ksenija Zaninović (DHMZ)

8. Other points: * Climate change has become a part of Strategy of Croatia’s tourism - Strategy to year 2020 - No major, potentially adverse, impacts of climate change on tourism are envisaged - Temperature rise may cause positive impact (extended season, increased competitiveness wrt southern Mediterranean countries) * Seasonal (monthly) forecasts * Energy efficiency of hotels (Croatian reality - research covered 47 hotels) - Hotels associate sustainable construction with an increase in initial investment - Only one hotel monitors the amount of waste - Only one hotel recycles the material from the guest rooms and common facilities - Water “savings” - washing machines used even if not fully loaded - Heating in 92% of hotels by oil, all swimming pools are heated by oil - Cooling installed in 53% of hotels, most surfaces covered in glass - No use of energy from renewable sources! * Development of one mountain resort - Detailed analysis of terrain elevations, orientations of ridges and slopes --> capacity estimations - Analysis of solar impact at 9, 12 and 15 local time --> warm and cold zones