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NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status (With a focus on NEMS AQ development). Sarah Lu NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center. with acknowledgments to many colleagues and collaborators. Acknowledgments:.

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ncep chemistry modeling overview and status with a focus on nems aq development

NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status(With a focus on NEMS AQ development)

Sarah Lu

NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Environmental Modeling Center

with acknowledgments to many colleagues and collaborators

acknowledgments
Acknowledgments:

EMC AQ group Jeff McQueen, Ho-Chun Huang, Youhua Tang, Dongchul Kim, Marina Tsidulko, Caterina Tassone

EMC UMIG group Mark Iredell, Henry Juang, Shrinivas Moorthi, Tom Black, Jun Wang, Weiyu Yang, Ratko Vasic, Ed Colon

EMC GMB Yu-Tai Hou, Suranjana Saha, Fanglin Yang, Xu Li, Jesse Meng, Yuejian Zhu, Jongil Han, John Ward

EMC GSI group John Derber, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Haixia Liu

CPC Craig Long, Shuntai Zhou

NWS OST Paula Davidson, Ivanka Stajner

OAR ARL Daewon Byun, Pius Lee, Roland Draxler, Ariel Stein, Hsin-Mu Lin, Daiwen Kang, Daniel Tong, Shao-cai Yu

GSFC Arlindo da Silva, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl

EPA Ken Schere, Rohit Mathur, Jon Pleim

Howard University Everette Joseph, William Stockwell

NESDIS Shobha Kondragunta, Quanhua Liu, Yong Han, Brad Pierce

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide3

Extensive chemistry modeling efforts within NOAA Research Laboratories (e.g., ESRL, ARL, GFDL) and NESDIS.

Comparison of RAQMS OMI+TES reanalysis

with IONS ozonesondes

(373 sondes, August, 2006)

PI: ANNE M. THOMPSON Penn State

The TES+OMI assimilation results in significant reductions in column, tropospheric (>100mb), and stratospheric (<100mb) biases (all less then 1%)

However, the low tropospheric biases are the result of compensating errors in the upper and lower troposphere.

Tropospheric biases: +/- 20%

Brad Pierce (NESDIS/STAR)

Fishman, J et al., “Remote Sensing of Tropospheric Pollution from Space”, BAMS June 2008

Pierce et al. “Impacts of background ozone production on Houston and Dallas, TX Air Quality during the TexAQS field mission”, Accepted JGR-Atmospheres, February, 2009

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

outline
Outline
  • NCEP current weather-air quality capabilities
    • National AQ Forecast Capability
    • Global ozone assimilation
  • NCEP R&D activities
    • National Environmental Modeling System
    • NEMS Interactive atmosphere-chemistry modeling
  • Proposed enhancements
    • Impact of dynamic lateral BCs on AQ forecasts
    • Impact of aerosols on weather forecasts
  • Conclusions

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide5
NCEP Current Weather-AQ Capabilities

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

national air quality forecast capability end to end operational capability

AQI: Peak Oct 4

EPA Monitoring Network

National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityEnd-to-End Operational Capability

Model Components: Linked numerical prediction system

Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer

  • NCEP mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMM
  • NOAA/EPA community model for AQ: CMAQ

Observational Input:

  • NWS weather observations; NESDIS fire locations
  • EPA emissions inventory

Gridded forecast guidance products

  • On NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aq and ftp-servers
  • On EPA servers
  • Updated 2x daily

Verification basis, near-real time:

  • Ground-level AIRNow observations
  • Satellite smoke observations

Customer outreach/feedback

  • State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA
  • Public and Private Sector AQ constituents
  • Website monitoring

Paula Davidson (NWS OST)

slide7

Expansion of coverage

166

Grid cells

265

grid

cells

142

grid

cells

142

Northeast US “1x” Domain

Sept 04

259

grid

cells

  • CONUS “5x” Domain
  • OPS: AQFC Sept. 07
  • EXP: AQFC/CB05 June. 08
  • DEV: AQFC/CB05-AERO-4

Eastern “3x” Domain

Sept 05

268 grid cells

442 grid cells

Jeff McQueen (EMC)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide8

NCEP Air Quality Forecast Verification

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq

8 h Avg Ozone Obs vs Fcst

Production

Experimental

20

Bias (ppb)

Bias (ppb)

-10

Almost the same for NW and Mid West

Higher for NE, SE and Low Miss Valley (increase positive bias)

Higher for SW (improve negative bias)

Jeff McQueen (EMC)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

global ozone assimilation in gsi
Global Ozone Assimilation in GSI
  • Why assimilate ozone
    • Ozone forecasts
      • UV Index Forecasts
      • Air Quality Forecasts
    • Needed for assimilating radiances from IR instruments (eg. HIRS, AIRS) where ozone influences the accuracy of determining temperatures.
  • Parameterized ozone physics in GFS
    • Production and destruction are parameterized from monthly and zonal mean dataset derived from NRL 2D ozone chemistry model
  • Current and future ozone products to be assimilated at NCEP
    • GFS currently assimilating only NOAA-17 SBUV/2 (nadir obs)
    • Probable data update to NOAA-18 and possible for NOAA-19
    • OMI and GOME-2 total ozone being tested in parallel
      • offers greater horizontal and latitudinal coverage
    • NRT MLS ozone profile product is being evaluated.
    • OMPS (NPP and NPOESS)

Craig Long (CPC)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide10

Total Ozone Analysis Improvements by

Assimilating OMI TOz in addition to SBUV/2

More Structure

Tighter Gradients

Craig Long and Shuntai Zhou (CPC)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide11
An Overview of National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

national environmental modeling system nems
National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

Unified Modeling Infrastructure Group, led by Mark Iredell

  • Earth Science Modeling Framework (ESMF)

http://www.esmf.ucar.edu

  • NEMS atmosphere
  • Write history and Post processor
  • Nesting
  • Aerosols and Chemistry
  • Land
  • Ocean, waves and sea ice
  • Ionosphere
  • Ensemble
  • Data assimilation

NCEP UMIG group routinely meets with GSD and GFDL groups

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

nems atmosphere
NEMS Atmosphere

Color Key

Generic Component

Atmosphere

Generic Coupler

unified atmosphere

Including digital filter

Completed Instance

Under Development

Future Development

Dynamics

Physics

Chemistry

Dyn-Phy

Coupler

ARW

NMM-B

NAM Phy

GOCART

do nada

FVCORE

Spectral

GFS Phy

AQF chem

FISL

FIM

Navy

reduced chemistry

Navy

adjoints

The goal is one unified atmospheric component that can invoke multiple dynamics and physics.

At this time, dynamics and physics run on the same grid in the same decomposition, so the coupler literally does nothing.

FY2010 operational implementation for NEMS NMM-B

Mark Iredell (EMC)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

developing an interactive atmosphere chemistry forecast system
Developing an interactive atmosphere-chemistry forecast system
  • In-line chemistry advantage
    • Consistent: no spatial-temporal interpolation, same physics parameterization
    • Efficient: lower overall CPU costs
    • Easy data management
    • Allows for feedback to meteorology
  • Requirements:
    • Meteorology and chemistry should be initialized with GSI
    • Conform to NCO CCS computer architecture
    • Conform to NCO software & I/O standards (GRIB/BUFR)
  • NEMS AQ development:
    • NMM-B Chem (using CB05)
      • In support of regional AQF system
    • GFS coupled with GOCART
      • Potential for improving weather forecasts (by improving aerosol-radiation feedback in GFS and atmospheric correction in GSI)
      • Providing LBCs for regional AQF aerosol predictions

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide15
NEMS Tracer Experiments:

NMM-B and GFS

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide16

NEMS NMM-B tracer experiment

Youhua Tang (EMC)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide17

NEMS GFS tracer experiment

Change in total mass loading (scaled by initial values)

IC = 2009/01/01 00Z

-1.37%  0.03% (diffusion off)

GB EAS WAF SAM NAM

GLB_SFC GLB_UTLS GLB_ALL

T62 L64 30-day experiments: CTR, CLD (Ferrier cloud microphysics), DYN (Adiabatic), SAS (Simplified Arakawa-Schubert convection), TVD (Flux-limited vertical advection)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide18

NEMS GFS tracer experiment

Zonal mean cross section for SAM_SFC & SAM_UTLS (IC=20090101)Flux-limited vertical advection reduces (but does not eliminate) negative tracer values

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide19
Global aerosol forecast and analysis system (GFS-GOCART)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

global aerosol forecast and analysis system
Global aerosol forecast and analysis system

Goal: Improving weather and air quality forecasts by incorporating prognostic aerosols in GFS and assimilating global aerosol information in GSI via NCEP-NASA/GSFC-Howard University collaborations

MODIS fire emissions

Regional AQF

Emissions

Global forecast

and analysis system

Dynamic LBCs

GOCART

Modeling

Atmos. Correction

SST Analysis

Data

Assimilation

Algorithm

Color key

Validation

NASA obs and tech

ROSE project

Various datasets

AERONET, OMI, CALIPSO

Satellite data

NCEP DSSs

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide21

Global aerosol forecast and analysis system(-cont’d)

  • Multiple, complementary approaches:
    • On-line systems including GOCART:
      • GFS/GOCART: new capability being developed
      • GEOS-5/GOCART: NASA/GMAO real-time system
      • GFS~GEOS-5/GOCART: Hybrid model (GEOS-5 dynamics + GFS physics)
    • Off-line GOCART CTM
      • Driven by GFS meteorology
  • Phased development:
    • Development of prototype system
    • Transition to real time system
    • Transition to operational production
    • Prototype system extended to include ozone chemistry (if resources available)
    • Transition to NCEP’s climate system (if resources available)

NEMS/GFS-GOCART

Dust-only offline GFS-GOCART

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide22

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/dkim/web/html/dust_day.htmlhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/dkim/web/html/dust_day.html

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

challenges for incorporating chemistry component into nems gfs
Challenges for incorporating chemistry component into NEMS GFS:
  • Resources !! Code optimization needed
    • The inclusion of 15 passive tracers leads to ~45% increase in wall time
    • The 3d atmosphere file sizes increased by the factor of 2.4-2.7
  • Needed capabilities
    • Convective transport (under testing for RAS)
    • Tracer scavenging
    • Positive definite advection with mass conserving

The chemistry modeling efforts will lead to scientific advances and technical upgrades in the NEMS

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

proposed enhancements
Proposed Enhancements
  • NOAA medium range weather forecasts
    • Climatology-based aerosol distributions are used in the GFS and background aerosol conditions are assumed in the GSI Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM)
    • Global aerosol products will improve the representation of aerosol distributions and variations within the GFS/GSI system
  • NOAA air quality forecasts
    • Default static boundary conditions are used for the developmental aerosol air quality predictions
    • Global aerosol products will provide improved aerosol lateral boundary conditions for the AQF system and, consequently, improve AQF aerosol forecasts

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide25
The impact of aerosols on medium range weather forecasts

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide26

Climate Forecast System (CFS):GFS coupled with GFDL MOM3

OPAC climo.

U-wind Cross Section at 10W

GOCART climo.

The intensity and location of African Easterly Jet are affected by background aerosol loading (via direct radiative effect)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

rms errors of nh temp for 00z forecasts
RMS errors of NH temp for 00Z forecasts

RMSE increased

Pressure

RMSE reduced

Forecast hours

GDAS experiments with different aerosol representations:

T126 L64; PRC (climatology) vs PRG (time varying)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide28

North America temperature verification

Climo.

Time-

varying

Temperature biases reduced by ~ 10% in lower atmosphere

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide29
The impact of lateral boundary conditions on air quality forecasts

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide30

Ozone Lateral Boundary Conditions Tests

Obs (IONS), Fixed, RAQMS, MOZART, GFS-O3

Youhua Tang (EMC)

Tang et al., The impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions on CMAQ predictions of tropospheric ozone over the continental United States, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 2008

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide31

Aerosol Lateral Boundary Conditions Tests:

Trans-Atlantic dust Transport

  • During Texas Air Quality Study 2006, the model inter-comparison team found all 7 regional air quality models missed some high-PM events, due to trans-Atlantic Saharan dust storms.
  • These events are re-visited here, using dynamic lateral aerosol boundary conditions provided from dust-only off-line GFS-GOCART.

Youhua Tang and Ho-Chun Huang (EMC)

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide32

In Conclusion

  • NCEP is developing NEMS as next-generation weather forecast system
  • NEMS R & D efforts continue in interactive atmosphere-chemistry modeling system
    • NMM-B coupled with CB05
    • GFS coupled with GOCART
  • NCEP modeling efforts leverage common modeling framework (ESMF), shared software development (via NOAA-NASA-DOD JCSDA), and research collaborations, such as
    • GSI ozone and aerosol data assimilation working group (EMC AQ group)
    • Co-Ops Biomass Burning Emission Committee (Jeff Reid and Shobha Kondragunta)
    • AeroCOM (Michael Shulz, Stefan Kinne, and Mian Chin)
    • GEMS/MACC community

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

slide33
THANK YOU

GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009