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NCEP Update: Opportunities for Collaboration

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  1. NCEP Update: Opportunities for Collaboration “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP Visit to Central Region HQ Kansas City, MO October 24, 2007

  2. Overview • Background • Recent Model Implementations • Collaboration • Model requirements – Annual Operating Plan • Model Evaluation – new NCO process • Service Center Collaboration Efforts • Space Weather Prediction Center • Summary

  3. Background • Organization • Test Beds

  4. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Solar Test Bed AWC FAA Aviation Test Bed with NCAR RAP OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Service – Science Linkagewith the Outside Community

  5. Recent Model Implementations • Model Production Suite • 2007 Implementations • Ensemble Systems

  6. Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation NOAH Land Surface Model

  7. 2007 Implementations • Global Forecast System (GFS) • Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS – 3rd Qtr FY2007 • Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis – 3rd Qtr FY2007 • NAM • Low level model moisture improvement - 3rd Q FY2007 • Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis – 4th Qtr FY2007 • RTMA upgrade • NAEFS • Increase U.S. Membership from 15 20 Members – 2rd Qtr FY2007 • U.S. – 80 members, Canadian – 20 members (inc. to 40 in July’07), FNMOC – 20 members

  8. 2007 Implementations (cont.) • HiRes Window • Higher resolution and expanded domains – 4th Qtr FY2007 • Air Quality Forecast • Expanded operational domain to CONUS – 4th Qtr FY2007 • Ocean Modeling • Multi-scale Wave Model – 4th Qtr FY2007(including Great Lakes) • HYCOM data assimilation upgrade – 3rd Qtr FY2007 • Hurricane Modeling – 3rd Qtr FY2007 • Hurricane WRF in parallel operations • Probabilistic Storm Surge Ocean Heat Content - Katrina

  9. Wave Watch III for Great Lakes • NCEP’s Great Lakes Wave model became operational in August 2006, and consists of: • A single grid with a resolution of 0.035x0.05 (4km) covering all of the Great Lakes • Wind forcing is taken from the 1/12 NAM model, as is the dynamically updated ice coverage • 6h hindcast for continuity between model runs • 84h forecast based on availability of hourly NAM winds • Four model cycles per day

  10. In Development • September, 2007, the ocean wave models converted to a new mosaic approach to wave modeling, with multiple grids with different resolutions working as a single integrated model. • The GLW model is slated to convert to the new wave model software in FY2008-Q2. • For now still with a single grid. • Exploring downscaling techniques for NAM winds. • Intend to start parallel runs with a second GLW model using NDFD winds • Parallel for FY2008-Q2, no tentative operational date yet.

  11. North American Ensemble Forecast System Canada contributes 40 runs/day to 16 days, US contributes 80/day to 16 days • NAEFS basic product list • 11 functionalities • Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc. • 50 variables • U,v,t,z,CAPE, precip type, etc. • 7 domains • Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa • Over 600 products requested by users (will be supplied via priority order) • Graphics • NAWIPS (interactively available) • NCEP Model Web Page – beginning July 07 on experimental basis • Grids • NAWIPS • ftp site (GRIB2) • NDGD in planning phase (1stQ 08) • Still working availability issues - first priority: “intermediate” users

  12. Short Range Ensemble Forecast • 21 members 4 times per day; 87 hours from 9 and 21Z • WRF/NMM, WRF/ARW, Eta, RSM; Resolution 32-45 km and 60 levels • Added six members twice per day (WRF ARW & WRF NMM) (Dec ‘05) • Run SREF 4 times per day (03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC) (Jun ‘06) • Implement Grid Based Bias Correction (Q1, FY2008) • Add WRF BUFR Files (Q1, FY2008) • Implement ensemble mean BUFR files (Q4, FY2008) • All members at 32 km resolution (Q4, FY2008) SREF Upgrades

  13. Winter Weather Impact Graphics from SREF • Probability event will last more than 12, 24, 48 hrs • Probability visibility will be reduced to 1/2, 1/4, or 1/8 mile in winter precip • Probability winter precip rate will be more than 1, 2, or 3" per hr • Probability road sensor will detect winter precip (relative to normal) “snow on road” • Probability Blizzard Criteria will be met • Probability Freezing Rain .01" or more will accumulate on any surface • Probability NWS Winter Storm Warning criteria will be met (under construction) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/

  14. Hundreds of images available online Overview fields Specialized high-impact guidance Fire weather Winter weather Convection Post-processed calibrated guidance Probability of thunderstorms Probability of severe storms Probability of dry lightning High Impact SREFGuidance at the SPC Expandable Menus: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref

  15. Collaboration Opportunities • Model Requirements • New Model Assessment Procedures • Service Centers

  16. Model RequirementsAnnual Operating Plan • EMC Meeting held each December • All SSD Chiefs attend • Assessments • Prioritized requirements (collected from regions) • Issues/process modification • What were major items from last year? • Field evaluation of the WRF-NAM • Formation of NWP Team to enhance products and services (NCEP, Regions, AWIPS, OAR?) • Transmission of grids via NAWIPS • Increased products (e.g. ecosystems, forecasts) • Probabilistic guidance • Opportunities for technical involvement/training • Ensemble products • Rich Grumm (State College) • Mike Evans (Binghamton) • Steve Zubrick (Baltimore/Washington) • David Bright (SPC)

  17. New Model Assessment Procedures • Expanded participation • NCEP Centers • NWS Regions • University Community • Private Sector • Mailing list for notifications of upcoming major changeshttps://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.modelevalinfo • Notification is provided to mailing list of upcoming evaluation periods including due dates • Parallel data sets are made available to those who agree to participate • Completed evaluations submitted by due date are used as input to decision on implementation

  18. Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the NWS • SPC/WFO • Watch “by county” • HPC/WFO • Winter Weather Desks • Medium Range: Days 4-7 • Hurricane “Hot Line” • AWC/WFO/CWSU • Collaborative Convective Forecast Product • CPC/ Regions/WFO/RFC • Hazard Assessment • Seasonal outlooks • OPC/WFO • Near shore  High seas • HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR • Unified Surface Analysis! • SEC – AWC • Solar/Aviation Products

  19. Space Weather Prediction Center Space Weather in your Neighborhood

  20. Space Weather Prediction Center • Space Environment Center formally joined NCEP/NWS/NOAA on January 9, 2005 from OAR/NOAA • Their addition helps foster a seamless suite of operational products from the “Sun to the Sea” • Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth • Prediction /Monitoring products include: • Onset of solar storms and magnitude of resultant geomagnetic disturbances with impacts on GPS, aircraft, communications, satellite systems, utilities, aurora,… • Next Solar Max – 2011!

  21. 268,762 RSF; includes 800+ Feds, contractors and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory 40 spaces for visiting scientists NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Predictionat the UMD Research Park (M-Square) Construction Schedule

  22. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Recent Activities Construction photographs – October 2, 2007

  23. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction First New UMD Building NORTH

  24. Summary • NCEP spanning “Sun to the Sea”; many new programmatic areas (oceans, air quality, space weather…) • Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist • NCEP is uniquely positioned to handle transition issues from research to operations – Test beds • NCEP is actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services • Still consider NCEP to be an underutilized entity by the research and operational communities

  25. Appendix

  26. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten Years Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count 2005 210 M obs 2007 1.1B obs 2003-4 125 M obs Level 2 radar data 2 B 2002 100 M obs Count (Millions) 1990 2000 2010 2010-10%of obs

  27. JCSDA Mission and Vision • Mission: Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate analysis and prediction models • Near-term Vision: A weather and climate analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations • Long-term Vision: An environmental analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively use the integrated observations of the GEOSS – and be ready for NPOESS at “Day 1” after launch

  28. The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Formed in 2001(NASA, NOAA, DoD) • Infrastructure for real-time access to operational and research satellite data from GOES, AMSU, Quikscat, AIRS, MODIS,… • Community fast forward radiative transfer scheme … operational data assimilation and model forecast systems available to research and forecast communities • Supports “internal” and “external research” and data assessments on NOAA/NCEP computers The Research Community is now using the operational infrastructure. The Operational Community is now accelerating use of satellite data.

  29. JCSDA Major Accomplishments • Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA • Community radiative transfer model V2 released • Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system • Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers • Operational Implementations Include: • Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data usage over high latitudes – improved forecasts • MODIS winds, polar regions, - improved forecasts • AIRS radiances – improved forecasts • New generation, physically based SST analysis - Improved SST • Preparation for advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/MHS), DMSP (SSMIS), COSMIC GPS data, EOS AMSR-E, GOES-R • Impact studies of POES MHS, EOS AIRS/MODIS, Windsat, DMSP SSMIS……. on NWP through EMC parallel experiments

  30. How HPC adds value to Day 3 - 7 Adjusting approximately 35% of the points

  31. How HPC adds value to Day 3 - 7 Adjusting approximately 35% of the points

  32. The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System(implemented August 24, 2004) • Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) • T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical • Recent upgrades in model physics • Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) • cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) • gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) • cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997) 1. Atmospheric component 2. Oceanic component • GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) • 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers • Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N) • Free surface 3. Coupled model • Once-a-day coupling • Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology 4. Calibrated on past 38 years

  33. Climate Forecast System Availability • Real-time 2x daily, 9-month forecasts, monthly ensemble of 40-60 members. • 15-member reforecasts per month (1981–2005) • Calibration • Skill estimates • Analog and statistical forecasts • The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst • The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/ • Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf 7 day average centered on Dec 27

  34. Next Generation CFS • Coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-cryosphere system • Improvements to • ODA (MOM3  MOM4) • “Unified Physics” • Atmospheric model • Sigma-pressure hybrid model • Upgrades to microphysics, radiation,… • Atmospheric data assimilation (GSI) • ESMF-based coupling and model structure • Reanalysis (1979-present) • Reforecast for • Weather & Week2 (1-14 days) • Monthly (2 weeks to 2 months) • S/I (2-12 months) • Estimated completion January 2010

  35. CFS Seasonal Temp Forecast (deg K) Without skill mask

  36. CFS Seasonal Temp Forecast (deg K) With skill mask • If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown

  37. U.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal • Climate Forecast System: First dynamic operational climate forecast model implemented August 2004 • Climate Test Bed: established in 2005and focused on improving the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products • Unprecedented increasesin the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks: (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB activities (e.g. consolidation tool)

  38. Proposed Time Line for CFS “Next” • April 2007: Implementation of the GSI scheme for GFS. • Jun 2007: Testing ESMF coupler for GFS and MOM4. • Aug 2007: Pilot studies for fully coupled reanalysis (GFS, GODAS & GLDAS) • Jan 2008: Production and Evaluation of CFS Reanalysis for 1979 to present • Jul 2008: Prepare CFS Retrospective Forecasts (2 initial months: October and April) • Jan 2009: Complete CFS Retrospective Forecasts (remaining 10 months) • Nov 2009: Compute calibration statistics for CFS daily, monthly and seasonal forecasts. Prepare CFS Reanalysis & Retrospective Fcst data for public dissemination. • Jan 2010: Operational implementation of the next CFS monthly & seasonal forecast suite. ************ ************ * Reanalysis, reforecast funding for NCEP provided in FY07 Pres. Budget ($800 K); Funding is critical to move beyond pilot studies

  39. HPC • Performance Metrics • QPF Status • Winter Weather Desk • NDFD – Days 3-7

  40. (DOC GPRA goal) HPC Forecasters Add Value Models provide basis for improvement Correlations Of HPC with: Eta: 0.99 GFS: 0.74 NGM: 0.85

  41. Day 7 Day 5 Day 3 In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2+ days of skill

  42. Status of QPF Procedures • Collaborative Procedure • WFOs notified when QPF is ready and when changes are substantial from previous forecast • WFOs contact HPC for collaboration via 12Planet and telephone • Link to RFCs • HPC sends fcst files to RFCs electronically and are available for collaboration via 12Planet and phone • Awaiting final take on QPF White Paper

  43. NWS Winter Weather Desk • Goals of 4 year experiment from 2001- 2004: • Improve Winter Weather Services to the public through coordination of the winter weather watches/warnings with National guidance products • Test short range ensemble for their applications to winter weather forecasting • Motivation: • Jan 24-25, 2000; December 30, 2000: March 4-6, 2001 • WWD “operational” September 15, 2004

  44. NWS Winter Weather Desk • Time line: Sep 15 – May 15 • Participants • NCEP HPC • Provide SREF based Winter Wx guidance • Collaborate with WFOs (Chat Room Technology) • WFOs • All CONUS WFOs • Use guidance from NCEP to produce coordinated Winter Storm Watches/Warnings • Products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml • 24 h probability (low, moderate, high) of meeting/exceeding 4”, 8”, 12” snow, 0.25” freezing rain (for day 1, 2, 3) • 72h Low tracks graphic and discussion