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Core Theme 1 Predictability of core ocean and atmosphere quantities

Core Theme 1 Predictability of core ocean and atmosphere quantities UHAM, MPG, UPMC, GEOMAR, NERSC. WP1.1. Predictability of sea surface temperature and sea ice in Nordic/Barents Seas (talk by H. Langehaug)

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Core Theme 1 Predictability of core ocean and atmosphere quantities

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  1. Core Theme 1 Predictability of core ocean and atmosphere quantities UHAM, MPG, UPMC, GEOMAR, NERSC

  2. WP1.1 Predictability of sea surface temperature and sea ice in Nordic/Barents Seas (talk by H. Langehaug) Task 1.1.1: Quantify hindcast predictability and uncertainties in near- future predictions of the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state Deliverable D25 (M24): Multi-model assessment of the hindcast predictability of the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state (Y. Gao) Predictability of subpolar gyre strength with focus on mid-1990s weakening (talks by K. Lohmann, D. Matei ) Task 1.1.2 : Quantify hindcast predictability and uncertainties in near- future predictions of key oceanic quantities controlling the North Atlantic /Arctic ocean surface state Deliverable D56 (M44): Multi-model assessment of the hindcast predictability of the key oceanic quantities controlling the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state

  3. WP1.1 Work planned for 2nd project year Predictability of North Atlantic sea surface salinity using multi-model hindcast simulations and observational-based dataset produced at University of Hamburg (M. Bersch) Task 1.1.1: Quantify hindcast predictability and uncertainties in near- future predictions of the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state Deliverable D25: Multi-model assessment of the hindcast predictability of the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state

  4. WP1.2 • Task 1.2.1Identification of the atmospheric response to ocean surface state changes (talksby C. Frankignoul, J.G. Serrano, A. Köhl) Task 1.2.1 • Space-time patterns impacting the North Atlantic/European sector in observations on seasonal to decadal time scale (UPMC) • Adjointsensitivities to identify SST regions that impact the climate over Europe most (UHAM) • Deliverable D18 (M18):Report on the identification of NA/Arcticoceansurfacestatechanges that most affect atmosphere (C. Frankignoul) • Task 1.2.2 : Attribution and assessment of the boundary forced changes • Mechanismsandsensitvitesofthe SST andseaiceimpacts • Deliverable D48(M44): Report on the establishment of the climate impacts of surface state forcing

  5. WP1.2 • Work planned for 2nd project year • PTask 1.2.3: Application to climate model predictions • Representation of the observed surface state impact • AMO impact & link to AMOC in two CMIP5 models (IPSL/CCSM) • SIC/snow influence in CMIP5 (IPSL/CCSM) models • Deliverable D37 (M36): Assessment of the ability of climate models to reproduce response to boundary forcing • Task 1.2.4: Impact of Arctic changes on meso-cyclone activity • Statistics of Polar Lows (work started in June 2013) • Case studies on certain Polar Lows • Deliverable D49 (M44): Assessment on the link between weather regimes and Polar Low developments in present and future climate

  6. WP1.3 • Task 1.3.1: Characterize spatial patterns of ocean state variabiliy • Patterns of winter sea ice variability in Barents Sea (talk C. Herbaut) • Skill of state-of-the art oceanmodels, influence of changes in atmospheric state (UHAM) • Deliverable D19 (M18): Description of the Arctic/North Atlantic ocean surface variability over the last decades (A. Köhl) • Task 1.3.2: Link ocean surface state variability to key ocean quantities • Different wind patterns associated with the northern and eastern MIZ • Northern MIZ influenced by the ocean heat transport through western Barents Sea (UPMC) • Deliverable D38 (M36): Identification of most relevant ocen mechanisms controlling surface variability in NA surface state

  7. WP1.3 • Task 1.3.3: Impact of the atmosphere on the Arctic/North Atlantic surface changes • Deliverable D50 (M44): Report on characterization of back interaction of atmosphere on Arctic/North Atlantic ocean surface state • Plans for next year: • Winter sea ice variability in the entire eastern Arctic : • role of the Fram Strait Atlantic water inflow versus Barents Sea branch • link to the the Atlantic layer warming in the eastern Arctic Ocean • relative impact of the ocean on the winter sea ice cover compared to the atmospheric forcing • Characterization of the summer sea ice variability • interannual and trends • Task 1.3.3: Impact of the atmosphere on the Arctic/North Atlantic surface changes

  8. CT1 Plan a half-year meeting CT1/CT3 in spring Focus on specific theme Interaction with CT2 (in particular SPG, heat transport, surface fluxes)

  9. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.eu

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