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Data analysis

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Data analysis

## Data analysis

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##### Presentation Transcript

1. Data analysis Module 4

2. Part 1 – Key ConceptsLearning Objectives • Understand the definition and purpose of data analysis • Define statistical and M&E key concepts in data analysis

3. Data Analysis • Turning raw data into useful information • Purpose is to provide answers to questions being asked at a program site or research questions • Even the greatest amount and best quality data mean nothing if not properly analyzed—or if not analyzed at all

4. Data Analysis • Analysis does not mean using computer software package • Analysis is looking at the data in light of the questions you need to answer: • How would you analyze data to determine: “Is my program meeting its objectives?”

5. Answering programmatic questions • Question: Is my program meeting its objectives? • Analysis: Compare program targets and actual program performance to learn how far you are from target. • Interpretation: Why you have or have not achieved the target and what this means for your program. • May require more information.

6. Descriptive analysis • Describes the sample/target population (demographic & clinic characteristics) • Does not define causality – tells you what, not why • Example – average number of clients seen per month

7. Basic terminology and concepts • Statistical terms • Ratio • Proportion • Percentage • Rate • Mean • Median

8. Ratio • Comparison of two numbers expressed as: • a to b, a per b, a:b • Used to express such comparisons as clinicians to patients or beds to clients • Calculation a/b • Example – In district X, there are 600 nurses and 200 clinics. What is the ratio of nurses to clinics? 600 200 = 3 nurses per clinic, a ratio of 3:1

9. Calculating ratios • In Kwakaba district, there are 160 nurses and 40 clinics • What is the nurse-to-clinic ratio? 160 40 4:1 or 4 nurses to 1 clinic = 4

10. Proportion • A ratio in which all individuals in the numerator are also in the denominator. • Used to compare part of the whole, such as proportion of all clients who are less than 15 years old • Example: If 20 of 100 clients on treatment are less than 15 years of age, what is the proportion of young clients in the clinic? • 20/100 = 1/5

11. Calculating proportions • Example: If a clinic has 12 female clients and 8 male clients, then the proportion of male clients is 8/20, or 2/5 • 12+8 = 20 • 8/20 • Reduce this, multiple of 4 = 2/5 of clients = male

12. Percentage • A way to express a proportion (proportion multiplied by 100) • Expresses a number in relation to the whole • Example: Males comprise 2/5 of the clients, or 40% of the clients are male (0.40 x 100) • Allows us to express a quantity relative to another quantity. Can compare different groups, facilities, countries that may have different denominators

13. Rate • Measured with respect to another measured quantity during the same time period • Used to express the frequency of specific events in a certain time period (fertility rate, mortality rate) • Numerator and denominator must be from same time period • Often expressed as a ratio (per 1,000) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database.

14. Infant Mortality Rate • Calculation • # of deaths ÷ population at risk in same time period x 1,000 • Example – 75 infants (less than one year) died out of 4,000 infants born that year • 75/4,000 = .0187 x 1,000 = 18.7 19 infants died per 1,000 live births

15. Calculating mortality rate In 2009, Mondello clinic had 31,155 patients on ART. During that same time period, 1,536 ART clients died. 1,536 31,155 49 clients died (mortality rate) per 1,000 clients on ART = .049 x 1,000 = 49

16. Rate of increase • Calculation • Total number of increase ÷ time of increase • Used to calculate monthly, quarterly, yearly increases in health service delivery. Example: increase in # of new clients, commodities distributed • Example: Condom distribution in Jan. = 200; as of June = 1,100. What is the rate of increase? • 1,100 - 200 = 900/6 = 150 (150 condoms per mo)

17. Calculating rate of increase In Q1, there were 50 new FP users, and in Q2 there were 75. What was the rate of increase from Q1 to Q2? Example: 75 - 50 = 25/3 = 8.33 new clients/mo

18. Central tendency Measures of the location of the middle or the center of a distribution of data • Mean • Median

19. Mean • The average of your dataset • The value obtained by dividing the sum of a set of quantities by the number of quantities in the set • Example: (22+18+30+19+37+33) = 159 ÷ 6 = 26.5 • The mean is sensitive to extreme values

20. Calculating the mean • Average number of clients counseled per month • January: 30 • February: 45 • March: 38 • April: 41 • May: 37 • June: 40 • (30+45+38+41+37+40) = 231÷ 6 = 38.5 • Mean or average = 38.5

21. Median • The middle of a distribution (when numbers are in order: half of the numbers are above the median and half are below the median) • The median is not as sensitive to extreme values as the mean • Odd number of numbers, median = the middle number • Median of 2, 4, 7 = 4 • Even number of numbers, median = mean of the two middle numbers • Median of 2, 4, 7, 12 = (4+7) /2 = 5.5

22. Calculating the median • Client 1 – 2 • Client 2 – 134 • Client 3 – 67 • Client 4 – 10 • Client 5 – 221 • = 67 • = 67+134 = 201/2 = 100.5

23. Use the mean or median?

24. Key messages • Purpose of analysis is to provide answers to programmatic questions • Descriptive analyses describe the sample/target population • Descriptive analyses do not define causality – that is, they tell you what,not why

25. Part 2: Basic analyses

26. Part 2: Learning Objectives • Identify approaches for setting targets • Understand common analyses that calculate program coverage and retention • Calculate program coverage and retention

27. Terminology • Indicator • Target • Program coverage • Service availability • Service utilization • Program retention

28. Indicator • Program element that needs tracking • Measures an aspect of a program’s performance • Measures changes over a period of time • # of new family planning users • # of clients currently on ART • Expressed as a number or percentage

29. Target Definition • A specified level of performance for a measure (indicator), at a predetermined point in time (i.e., achieve ‘x’ by ‘y’ date) • Overall target • Annual targets

30. Why Set Targets? • Targets help program staff with: • Planning • Staffing and service delivery • Commodities • Monitoring progress • Break long-term goals into manageable pieces • Check progress on indicators

31. Setting Reasonable Targets • The range of values for a given indicator can be from 0% to 100%. • Example: The theoretical range for the Polio indicator is between 0% of children immunized (bad) and 100% immunized (ideal) • Is it appropriate to set the Polio indicator target at 100% for a given program? Why/why not?

32. Setting Reasonable Targets • Example: In Somalia, the national CPR from 2007 to 2009 was15%. The following year, a national target was set for 70%. • Is it appropriate to set the CPR target for Somalia at 70%? Why/why not?

33. Overall Target Setting Approaches • There are three approaches to set a target : • Established long-term goals by contacting that national program • Past performance (of your program, increasing by no more than 10%) • Local high performer (a stellar program nearby) • Consider the number of clients your program can realistically expect to serve during a given period of time

34. Annual Target Setting • Determine the increase your program needs to gain to reach your overall target • Divide that number by the number of years in which you would like to achieve the target • Add the number to your baseline indicator for each year

35. Considerations for Target Setting • Ensure you have an agreed-upon and realistic definition of target population • Set a realistic target to achieve in the long term and short term

36. Importance of Defining the Target Population: Case Example • Target was 372 children to be immunized • Actual was 488 children immunized • To calculate the % target achieved, use (Actual/Target) * 100 • 488/372 = 1.31*100 = 131% • How could the clinic have surpassed its target by so much?

37. Implications of Incorrect Target Setting: Case Example • You don’t really know to what extent you’re fully immunizing the children in your setting • If your program purchases commodities (e.g., vaccines) based on the target set, supply could run out • If you set your target too low, you may not have enough vaccines, leading to disease outbreaks

38. Common Analyses • Program Coverage • Extent to which a program reaches its intended target population, institution, or geographic area • Compare current performance to prior year/quarter • Compare performance between sites • Program Retention • Extent to which the range of services is being delivered as initially intended so that client drop-outs are minimal

39. Why do we need to measure coverage? • To understand program progress • To determine if the target is reached • Clients, commodities, adherence… • To determine if one target is reached more effectively than another • Are there underserved area/regions, subpopulations?

40. Program coverage • Extent to which a program reaches its intended target population, institution, or geographic area • Utilization: • Is the target population utilizing services, accessing commodities, being reached with services? • Availability: • Are the services available where there is a need?

41. Utilization calculation Percentage of the target population utilizing services # of individuals in target population using a service ------------------------------------------- X 100 # of individuals in target population

42. Utilization calculation: Example • No. of persons educated as of 6/12/09 = 300 • Goal for 12/31/09 = 900 300 900 • You have reached 33% of your target group with education messages • = 0.33 x 100 = 33%

43. Comparison of time periods • Compare percentage achieved toward target for different time periods, different sites, etc. • Rate of increase • As of January, 70 people educated; by June, 300 people • 300 – 70 = 230 increase in people educated • 230/6 = 38.3 new people educated per month over the 6 months

44. Utilization of PMTCT Programs All pregnant women (2,000) Utilization = Service users Target population PMTCT Target (1,000) Sought prenatal care (600) Utilization = 600/1,000 = 0.6 0.6 x 100 = 60% Counseled & Tested for HIV (500)

45. Program coverage • Extent to which a program reaches its intended target population, institution, or geographic area • Utilization: • Is the target population utilizing services, accessing commodities, being reached with services? • Availability: • Are the services available where there is a need?

46. Availability calculation • Number of service outlets available per target population • # of clinics with PMTCT per # of pregnant women • Expressed as a ratio

47. PMTCT clinic availability • There are 8 clinics offering PMTCT & 100,000 pregnant women in region X. • Ratio of clinics to pregnant women 8:100,000 • Reduce to (1:12,500) pregnant women • The standard recommendation is 1 clinic with PMTCT services per 10,000 pregnant women • Clinic availability is not reaching the target

48. Availability + Utilization = Coverage • Service availability is 1:12,500 • Service availability target is 1:10,000 • PMTCT service utilization is 25% off the target • What can we conclude? • Service availability and utilization are too low; the program is not meeting the needs of pregnant women.

49. Program retention • Measures if the range of services are being delivered as initially intended • Determines program retention, i.e., is the project keeping clients through entire package of services? • Important in clinical programs where drug adherence is an issue (TB, HIV/AIDS, immunization) and there are multiple steps (PMTCT)

50. Retention example: Immunization Utilization Completion