Climate Science How serious is the problem?

1. Climate Science How serious is the problem? Bruce M. Everett July 15, 2014

2. The argument as portrayed in the press Yes Do something Is climate change real? Do nothing No

3. The real argument is much more complicated Has the Earth warmed? Yes. (Some debate about numbers.)

4. The real argument is much more complicated Are humans responsible? Has the Earth warmed? Yes. (Not sure how much.) Yes. (Some debate about numbers.)

5. President Obama’s Tweet (May 16, 2013)

6. Professor Cook’s Study • Examined abstracts of 14,000 papers on climate. • Did not interview authors. • Selected 2,000 which addressed climate change. • Concluded that 97% either: • State that humans are the primary cause of observed global warming, or • State or imply that humans caused some of the observed warming, but don’t say how much. http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article

7. President Obama’s Tweet (May 16, 2013) and, to some degree, ˆ

8. The real argument is much more complicated Can we predict future warming? Are humans responsible? No! Climate system is too complex. Scientific understanding is insufficient. Has the Earth warmed? Yes. (Not sure how much.) Yes. (Some debate about numbers.)

9. Complex Systems – Bird Swarms Can we predict their behavior?

10. How do we know whether we understand the problem? Science!

11. Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynman on the Scientific Method Guess Compute the consequences of the guess Compare the computation results to nature

12. Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynman on the Scientific Method “It doesn't matter how beautiful your guess is or how smart you are or what your name is. If it disagrees with experiment, it's wrong.”

13. The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous.. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times Columnist

14. The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous.. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times Columnist

15. Palmer Drought Severity Index for US Wet Dry Source: NOAA

16. The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and themost violent storms more numerous.. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times Columnist

17. # of Category 5 Hurricanes since 1949 There have been no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since September 6, 2007. Trend Source: Unisys hurricane data base

18. Climate computer models cannot yet make any meaningful predictions. The atmosphere has not experienced any net warming in the last 15 years.

19. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a committee. Committees do politics, not science.

20. Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts. Richard Feynman

21. We do not know if climate change is: Catastrophic Unimportant Beneficial

22. How much does carbon mitigation cost? Bruce M. Everett July 15, 2014

23. Carbon mitigation Difficult and painful Harder and more expensive $/tonne of CO2 Easy and cheap 0 100% CO2 reduction

24. Carbon mitigation $200 $/tonne of CO2 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction

25. Easy steps Plant a tree Negligible impact

26. Easy steps Compact fluorescent lights 0.4% carbon reduction

27. Easy steps Change your thermostat 2° 0.07% reduction

28. Harder steps Hybrid cars ($165/mt) 0.8% reduction

29. Carbon mitigation $200 Hybrid cars $/tonne of CO2 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction

30. Harder steps Nuclear power ($180/mt) Cost twice as much as natural gas Safety? Public acceptance?

31. Carbon mitigation $200 Nuclear $/tonne of CO2 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction

32. Harder steps Onshore wind power ($190/mt) Cost twice as much as natural gas Low utilization Intermittent

33. Carbon mitigation Onshore wind $200 $/tonne of CO2 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction

34. Really painful steps Electric cars ($600/mt) Cost twice as much Poor performance (low range) Not much reduction with today’s grid

35. Carbon mitigation Electric cars $200 $/tonne of CO2 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction

36. Really painful steps Solar ($700/mt) Cost 4-5X as much as natural gas Low utilization Intermittent

37. Carbon mitigation Solar $200 $/tonne of CO2 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction

38. Really painful steps Light rail ($10,000/mt) Huge capital cost Low ridership Some systems save no CO2!

39. Carbon mitigation Light rail $200 $/tonne of CO2 Really painful $20 Hard Easy 0 100% CO2 reduction

40. Really painful steps Carbon capture and sequestration (?/mt) Unproven technology Cost and performance unknown

41. Impact of carbon taxes US current emits ~5 billion metric tons of CO2 annually A $20/mt tax = $100 billion per year $1,000 per household A $200/mt tax = $1 trillion per year $10,000 per household A $500/mttax = $2.5 trillion per year $25,000 per household

42. Question: How much should we pay to insure against an unknown risk?

43. Climate Change What should we do? Bruce M. Everett July 15, 2014

44. Effective policies require: • A clear understanding of the issue • A pathway to a solution

45. D-Day (June 6, 1944) What does it take to win?

46. Global CO2 Emissions from Energy1990 = 22 Billion tonnes Rest of the World OECD Europe China US Source: Energy Information Administration

47. Global CO2 Emissions from Energy2013 = 33 Billion tonnes Rest of the World OECD Europe China US Source: Energy Information Administration

48. Global CO2 Emissions from Energy2030 = 41 Billion tonnes Rest of the World China OECD Europe US Source: Energy Information Administration

49. UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes: • 40-70% reduction from 2010 levels by 2050 • 1.3% to 3.0% annual reductions

50. 40% reduction case