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Arizona Corporation Commission

Arizona Corporation Commission. Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop May 17, 2000 9. Agenda. Arizona Transmission Provider Preparedness Arizona Public Service Company Salt River Project Tucson Electric Power Western Area Power Administration Arizona Electric Power Cooperative

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Arizona Corporation Commission

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  1. Arizona Corporation Commission Summer Peak 2000Preparedness Workshop May 17, 20009

  2. Agenda • Arizona Transmission Provider Preparedness • Arizona Public Service Company • Salt River Project • Tucson Electric Power • Western Area Power Administration • Arizona Electric Power Cooperative • Regional Supply and Delivery Consideration Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  3. Regional Supply & Delivery • A Western Interconnection Perspective • WSCC • NWPPC • CEC/CAISO • Desert Southwest • Is a Regional Response Need ? Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  4. Reference: NERC Reliability Assessment 1998-2007

  5. History of Reserve Margins Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  6. CEC: Is There a Problem? • The Summer of 1998 • Record High Temperatures throughout West • Record High Electricity Demand • Four Stage Two Emergency Alerts in CA • The Summer of 1999 • Cool Summer… But • Record High Electricity Demand Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  7. CA ISO Daily Peak Load Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  8. Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  9. California ISO Forecast Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  10. The Northwest Power System • A little bit different… • 58 % energy and 70 % capacity is hydro • Hydro output extremely variable -- • Limited ability to store water year to year • 8000 aMW swing from driest to wettest years • But also similar… • Part of diverse West Coast system • New generation -- typically gas-fired combined cycle units developed by non-utility entities in response to market Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  11. NWPPC: Key findings • There is a problem -- over next few years without new resources, probability of being unable to meet needs at some level during winter is 24 percent • Problems could be energy and/or capacity; big or little • New resources means new generation and/or reliable, voluntary, economic load reduction • Potential Consequences • Least -- violation of operating reserve req. • Medium -- rolling brown-outs or black-outs • Worst -- possible widespread outages Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  12. Illustrative Sub-daily Operation: January, 2003 Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  13. Achieving a Loss of Load Probability of 5 % Winter 2003 Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Current, Expected and Approved Power Plant Licensing Cases Three Mountain Power Power Plant Approved Size: 500 megawatt by the Commission Location: Shasta County Proponent: Ogden Power Pacific Power Plant Licensing AFC filed March 3, 1999 (99-AFC-2) Cases Currently Before the Commission Los Medanos Energy Center Expected Power Plant Sutter Power Project (Formerly Pittsburg District Energy Facility) Licensing Cases Size: 500 megawatt Size: 500 megawatt Location: Sutter County Location: Contra Costa County TOTAL PROJECTS: Proponent: Calpine Approved Projects = 4 Proponent: Calpine Current Projects = 13 AFC filed Dec.15, 1997 (97-AFC-2) AFC filed June 15, 1998 (98-AFC-1) Expected Projects = 7 Fuel type for all projects will be Natural Gas Potrero Contra Costa Size: 520 megawatt Size: 530 megawatt Location: San Francisco County Location: Contra Costa County Proponent: Southern Energy Proponent: Southern Energy AFC expected March 2000 AFC filed Jan. 31, 2000 (00-AFC-1) Delta Energy Center South City Project Elk Hills Power Project Size: 880 megawatt Size: 550 megawatt Size: 500 megawatt Location: Contra Costa County Location: San Mateo County Location: Kern County Proponent: Calpine & Bechtel Proponent: AES Proponent: Sempra & Oxy AFC filed Dec. 18, 1998 (98-AFC-3) AFC expected 2000 (98-SIT-7) AFC filed February 24, 1999 (99-AFC-1) Newark Energy Center Sunrise Cogeneration Size: 500 megawatt & Power Project Location: Alameda County Proponent: Calpine & Bechtel Size: 320 megawatt Metcalf Energy Center AFC expected 2000 (99-SIT-4) Location: Kern County Proponent: Texaco Global Gas and Power Size: 600 megawatt AFC filed Dec. 21, 1998 (98-AFC-4) Location: Santa Clara County Proponent: Calpine & Bechtel Pastoria Power Project AFC filed April 30, 1999 (99-AFC-3) Size: 750 megawatt Location: Kern County Moss Landing Proponent: Tejon Ranch Co. Size: 1,090 megawatt AFC filed Nov. 30, 1999 (99-AFC-7) Location: Monterey County Proponent: Duke Energy Antelope Valley AFC filed May 7, 1999 (99-AFC-4) Size: 1,000 megawatt Location: Kern County Morro Bay Proponent: AES Size: 530 megawatt AFC expected 2000 (98-SIT-8) Location: San Luis Obispo County Proponent: Duke Energy High Desert Power Plant Project AFC expected 2000 Size: 678 or 720 megawatt Location: San Bernardino County La Paloma Generating Project Proponent: Inland Energy and Size: 1,048 megawatt Constellation Energy Location: Kern County AFC filed June 30, 1997 (97-AFC-1) Proponent: PG&E Generating AFC filed August 12, 1998 (98-AFC-2) Mountainview Power Project Midway-Sunset Cogen West Size: 1,056 megawatt Size: 500 megawatt Location: San Bernardino County Location: Kern County Proponent: Thermo Ecotek Proponent: Midway Sunset Cogeneration Co. AFC filed Feb. 1, 2000 (00-AFC-2) AFC filed Dec. 22, 1999 (99-AFC-9) Nueva Azalea Long Beach District Energy Facility Size: 550 megawatt Size: 500 megawatt Redondo Beach Location: Los Angeles County Location: Los Angeles County Blythe Energy Power Plant Proponent: Sunlaw Cogen Partners I Size: 700 megawatt Proponent: Enron Project AFC filed March 8, 2000 (00-AFC-3) Location: Los Angeles County AFC expected 2000 Proponent: AES Size: 520 megawatt AFC expected 2000 Otay Mesa Power Plant Location: Riverside County Proponent: Summit Energy Group Size: 510 megawatt AFC filed Dec. 9, 1999 (99-AFC-8) Location: San Diego County Proponent: PG&E Generating AFC filed Aug. 2, 1999 (99-AFC-5) March 23, 2000 - California Energy Commission Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  15. Projected Reserve Requirements (MW) 1999-2008 +799 5,986 Reference: WSCC May 1999 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  16. Generation Additions Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  17. Thirteen AZ Plant Additions • Griffith Energy 530 • Desert Basin 500 • South Point 500 • W. Phoenix 500 • Red Hawk 2,120 • Harquahala 1,040 • Arlington Valley 580 • Gila River 2080 • Big Sandy 720 • Mesquite 1265 • Gila Bend 750 • Kyrene 825 • Santan 825 TOTAL MW 12,225 Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  18. WSCC EHV Transmission Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  19. What Actions Are Needed? • Prepare a coordinated load reduction strategy • Voluntary reduction / Price induced ? • Emergency response • Encourage distributed resource solutions • Encourage new EHV transmission to accompany plant additions Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

  20. Questions ? Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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