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Modelling Sector Demands. P.R. Shukla. Integrated Bottom-Up Modeling System. End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM). Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost. Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL). Long-Term Demand Projection Model. End-use Demand.

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Modelling Sector Demands


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Presentation Transcript
end use sub sector models aim

Integrated Bottom-Up Modeling System

End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)

Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost

Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL)

Long-Term Demand

Projection Model

End-use

Demand

Technology Shares

Industry

Transport

Agriculture

Residential

Commercial

Steel

Urban

Rural

Cement

Aluminum

Sugar

Paper

Brick

Chlor-Alkali

Textiles

Fertilizer

Others

end use sub sector models aim3

Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model

End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)

Indian Economy

Industry

Transport

Agriculture

Residential

Commercial

Steel

Urban

Rural

Cement

Aluminum

Sugar

Paper

Brick

Chlor-Alkali

Textiles

Fertilizer

Others

sectoral demand projection logistic regression
Sectoral Demand Projection: Logistic Regression

Demand Projection for Steel

exp(a + bt)

Yt = Y0

120

1+exp(a + bt)

100

In ((Yt / Yo)/(1- Yt / Yo)) = a + bt

t = time period

Yt = level of demand at time t

Y0 = asymptotic limit for the demand Yt

a,b : Parameters to be estimated

80

60

Steel (million ton)

40

20

0

1975

1995

2015

2035

2055

transport technology options
Transport Technology Options

ROAD Vehicles

PASSENGER GOODS

2-Wheeler Heavy Truck (Diesel)

3-Wheeler Light Truck (Diesel)

Petrol Car Heavy Truck (CNG)

Diesel Car Light Truck (CNG)

CNG Car

  • RAIL Vehicles
    • Steam Loco
    • Diesel Loco
    • Electric Loco
reference energy system for transport

Gasoline

2-W

Road PKMS

3-W

Heavy Oil

4-W

Road TKMS

Bus

Diesel

HCV

LCV

Rail PKMS

CNG

Diesel Train

Electricity

Rail TKMS

Electric Train

Coal

Steam Train

Air PKMS

Passenger Aircraft

ATF

Ship

Water TKMS

Reference Energy System for Transport
growth of traffic in india
Growth of Traffic in India

Passenger (Billion PKms)

Goods (Billion TKms)