Science of climate change and impacts in appalachia
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Science of Climate Change and Impacts in Appalachia Elizabeth Crisfield Penn State University The Climate Project The chemistry of carbon dioxide O O C Mercury Venus Earth 333° F 855° F 59° F Roger Revelle Photo: San Diego Historical Society Land Mass in Southern Hemisphere

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Science of climate change and impacts in appalachia l.jpg
Science of Climate Change and Impacts in Appalachia

  • Elizabeth Crisfield

  • Penn State University

  • The Climate Project



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Mercury

Venus

Earth

333° F

855° F

59° F


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Roger Revelle

Photo: San Diego Historical Society




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Huascarán, Peru

Lonnie G. Thompson


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Quelccaya Ice Cap

Peru, 1977

Lonnie G. Thompson



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800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Age (years BP)

300

280

260

240

CO2 (ppmv)

CO2 Concentration

220

200

180

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA


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800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Age (years BP)

300

280

260

240

CO2 (ppmv)

CO2 Concentration

220

200

180

Temp. in F°

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA


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2008 CO2 Concentration: 387

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Age (years BP)

400

380

360

340

320

300

280

260

240

CO2 (ppmv)

CO2 Concentration

220

200

180

Temp. in F°

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA


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2009 CO2 Concentration: 387

After 50 more years at the current rate of increase

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA



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1998

1900

Grinnel Glacier

  • Glacier National Park

Photos: Matthes, GNP Archives; McKeon, USGS


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2004

1914

Portage Glacier

  • Alaska

Photos: NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch – WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org


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In WV, tulip poplar leaves were 6-10 days earlier in 2007 when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008


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Mosquitos Move to Higher Elevations when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008

Today

Increased warmth has caused mountain glaciers to shrink in the tropics and temperate zones

Before 1970

Cold temperatures caused freezing at high elevations and limited mosquitoes, mosquito-borne diseases and many plants to low altitudes

Dengue Fever or Malaria

Mosquitoes

Some mosquitoes, mosquito-borne diseases and plants have migrated upward

Plants


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Ixodes scapularis when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008 establishment in Canada

1971 – 2000

2020s

2050s

2080s

Upper Temperature Limits for Ticks

Source: Canadian Medical Association Journal, 11 March 2008


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Predictions when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008

  • Global Circulation Models (GCMs) – predict weather

  • Most predictions use a specific model, and a specific emissions scenario (most researchers use IPCC scenarios)

  • There is some error in every model, but there is also uncertainty in our emission rates in the future

  • It’s difficult to put timeframes on the impacts because of this uncertainty


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From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas


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From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas


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American Goldfinch when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008

From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas


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Black Capped Chickadee when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008

From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas


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Trout Habitat when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008

From Flebbe, Roghair, and Bruggink, 2006.


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Feedbacks when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008


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Pine Beetle Destruction when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008

  • Grandby, Colorado

Photo: AP Photo/Colorado State Forest Service, Jen Chase


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Photo: AP Photo/Tom Hood when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008


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