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Science of Climate Change and Impacts in Appalachia Elizabeth Crisfield Penn State University The Climate Project The chemistry of carbon dioxide O O C Mercury Venus Earth 333° F 855° F 59° F Roger Revelle Photo: San Diego Historical Society Land Mass in Southern Hemisphere

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science of climate change and impacts in appalachia
Science of Climate Change and Impacts in Appalachia
  • Elizabeth Crisfield
  • Penn State University
  • The Climate Project
slide8

Mercury

Venus

Earth

333° F

855° F

59° F

slide9

Roger Revelle

Photo: San Diego Historical Society

slide16

Huascarán, Peru

Lonnie G. Thompson

slide17

Quelccaya Ice Cap

Peru, 1977

Lonnie G. Thompson

slide20

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Age (years BP)

300

280

260

240

CO2 (ppmv)

CO2 Concentration

220

200

180

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

slide21

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Age (years BP)

300

280

260

240

CO2 (ppmv)

CO2 Concentration

220

200

180

Temp. in F°

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

slide22

2008 CO2 Concentration: 387

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Age (years BP)

400

380

360

340

320

300

280

260

240

CO2 (ppmv)

CO2 Concentration

220

200

180

Temp. in F°

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

slide23

2009 CO2 Concentration: 387

After 50 more years at the current rate of increase

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

grinnel glacier

1998

1900

Grinnel Glacier
  • Glacier National Park

Photos: Matthes, GNP Archives; McKeon, USGS

portage glacier

2004

1914

Portage Glacier
  • Alaska

Photos: NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch – WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org

slide30

In WV, tulip poplar leaves were 6-10 days earlier in 2007 when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008

mosquitos move to higher elevations
Mosquitos Move to Higher Elevations

Today

Increased warmth has caused mountain glaciers to shrink in the tropics and temperate zones

Before 1970

Cold temperatures caused freezing at high elevations and limited mosquitoes, mosquito-borne diseases and many plants to low altitudes

Dengue Fever or Malaria

Mosquitoes

Some mosquitoes, mosquito-borne diseases and plants have migrated upward

Plants

upper temperature limits for ticks
Ixodes scapularis establishment in Canada

1971 – 2000

2020s

2050s

2080s

Upper Temperature Limits for Ticks

Source: Canadian Medical Association Journal, 11 March 2008

predictions
Predictions
  • Global Circulation Models (GCMs) – predict weather
  • Most predictions use a specific model, and a specific emissions scenario (most researchers use IPCC scenarios)
  • There is some error in every model, but there is also uncertainty in our emission rates in the future
  • It’s difficult to put timeframes on the impacts because of this uncertainty
slide34

Range predictions for tulip poplar

From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

slide35

Range predictions for sugar maple

From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

american goldfinch
American Goldfinch

From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

black capped chickadee
Black Capped Chickadee

From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

trout habitat
Trout Habitat

From Flebbe, Roghair, and Bruggink, 2006.

pine beetle destruction
Pine Beetle Destruction
  • Grandby, Colorado

Photo: AP Photo/Colorado State Forest Service, Jen Chase