How to make the World Aware that the Party is Over

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How to make the World Aware that the Party is Over Kjell Aleklett Uppsala University Sweden International Workshop On Oil Depletion IWOOD2002 Uppsala, Sweden, May 23-25, 2002 http://www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002/

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How to make the World

Aware that the Party is Over

Kjell Aleklett

Uppsala University

Sweden

International Workshop On Oil DepletionIWOOD2002

Uppsala, Sweden, May 23-25, 2002 http://www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002/

The ASPO Statistical Review of Oil and Gas: http://www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002/ASPO/ASPO-Stat-Rev.html

Statement by Matthew Simmons, energy adviser for President Bush:  “We need a wake up call. We need it desperately. We need basically a new form of energy. I don’t know that there is one.”  (TV4, Sweden)

Growth

”Gated Eden”

”Eden”

Splitting

”The fall of

the Empire”

”Global

Darwinism”

Needed for a good party

Good music

Plenty of food

Champagne, Champagne and Champagne

Needed for a good energy party

Easy to move energy

Abundance without limits

Methods to transform bound energy into something useful

The name of the game has been oil!

How much energy is bound in oil?

1 litre of oil contain 10 kWh

What can you do with 10 kWh?

You can move 10 small cars to the top of the Eiffel tower!

Reported Giant Elephants from 1870 till 2000

Number

Per

5

year

About 70% of all oil we have discovered can be found in 371 giant oilfields,

the giant elephants.

OPEC:s numbers according to Oil & Gas journal.

Production in the OPEC countries in the table is 6 Gb/year

Middle East

Difference between the Uppsala model and BP

Saudi Arabia 194,4 (261.8) Gb

Iraq 95.0 (112,5) Gb

Iran 70,5 (89,7) Gb

Kuwait 55,4 (96,5) Gb

N. Zone 8,45

Abu Dubai 59,4 (97,8) Gb

Oman 6,74 (5,5) Gb

Qatar 5,73 (5,5) Gb

Yemen 1,36 (4,0) Gb

Syria 2,01 (2,8) Gb

Sum 499 (676.1) Gb

It looks as 177 Gb oil is missing

Production and reserves

Oil & Gas J. 2001-12-31

Back dating
• An oilfield contains what it contains because it was filled in the geological past
• An oilfield is found by the first successful borehole drilled into it.
• All the oil, ever to be produced from it under any circumstance, is logically attributable to the original discovery
• Date is as important as Amount
Predicting the future

231 production wells

1988

1977

Realety and Illusion

x

Realety

Prediction

Inflexion due to

falling discovery

OPEC “quota war”

Illusion

Colin Campbell

"Understanding depletion is simple. Think of an Irish pub. The glass starts full and ends empty. There are only so many more drinks to closing time. It’s the same with oil. We have to find the bar before we can drink what’s in it."

Published Estimates of Ultimate recovery

Average of 65 estimates is 1.93 Tb

USA oil and USGS 2000

USGS numbers for USA year 2025:

F95 = 345 Gb

Mean = 362 Gb

F5 = 383 Gb

Dvs mean +/- 5%

World R/P for oil and gas

R/P is claiming that current reserves of 1000 Gb could support current production at 27 Gb/a for 37 years.

R/P is a poor indicator and should be ignored.

Peak Discovery 1964

World - conventional oilUltimate : 1900 Gb To-date 2002: 927 Gb

Peak

Discovery

High Prices

Curb Demand

H.J. Longwell, Exxon MobilWorld Energy Vol 5, Nr3, 2002

In closing, let me say that I believe industry has the resources to meet future global energy demand for some considerable time. I base this in part on my belief that technological advances will continue in exploration, development and production, just as they have in the past. This is the one major component in our success equation that we can control, and we must be relentless in its pursuit.

Such advances will be critical to meeting energy demand after 2010. I think it is well within the realm of possibility that many of our future discoveries will come not just from new frontier areas, but also from proven areas, as evolving technology improves our ability to virtually "see" and distinguish the oil and gas before we drill.

History

Forecast

Sm3

6 Gb + 3 Gb

17 Gb

Monthly data

1/99 - 10/02

?

Source: NPD

Professor Kenneth S DeffeyesPrincton University, USAHubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage

I have some advice for my granddaughter

Emma, age two:

By the time you reach retirement age the

world production of oil, the kind that’s fun

to drill for, will be down to a fifth of its

present size. Get into renewable energy.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/wealth/0902/sep.ft.crude.pdf

There is one bottle in Iraq and if we pore the content into four glasses each glass represent the global consumption per year.

From the beginning the nature had put two bottles in the ground in USA. They have just started to sip on the last glass.

If we have 11 bottles to empty and it takes 4 years to empty one everyone should be aware of the the party is over and that we need to do something!!!!

Aristoteles, 340 f.kr.“The Earth is round!”ASPO 2003, “We will have a peak and decline and we have to fight against the “flat earth” people”.