tuscaloosa economic outlook n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Tuscaloosa Economic Outlook PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Tuscaloosa Economic Outlook

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 30

Tuscaloosa Economic Outlook - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 152 Views
  • Uploaded on

Tuscaloosa Economic Outlook . Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration The University of Alabama http://cber.cba.ua.edu (205) 348-6191. West Alabama Real Estate Summit Tuscaloosa, Alabama August 24, 2012.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Tuscaloosa Economic Outlook' - bebe


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
tuscaloosa economic outlook

Tuscaloosa Economic Outlook

Ahmad Ijaz

Center for Business and Economic Research

Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration

The University of Alabama

http://cber.cba.ua.edu (205) 348-6191

West Alabama Real Estate Summit

Tuscaloosa, Alabama August 24, 2012

overview u s economic conditions
Overview: U.S. Economic Conditions
  • Economic recovery has lost momentum, but has not come to a halt
  • Inventory cycle caused relatively strong growth in late 2011 and early 2012
  • 2.1 percent economic growth expected for U.S. in 2012 and 1.8 percent for 2013, chance of another recession is currently at 25 percent
  • Commercial and industrial loan market is gradually reviving
  • Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama2
downside risks
Downside Risks
  • State and local governments continue to lay off workers
  • Relatively tight credit and loan markets
  • Housing markets remain weak and distressed
  • Rising gasoline and food prices
  • External risks (Eurozone and China)
  • Lack of income growth
  • Economy will require much faster job growth for a sustained recovery
  • Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 3
consumer sentiment improving but still weak
Consumer sentiment improving, but still weak

Source: University of Michigan.

productivity growth has run out of steam
Productivity growth has run out of steam

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

u s economic outlook
U.S. Economic Outlook

Source: IHS Global Insight, August 2012.

monthly employment indicators july 2012
Monthly Employment Indicators (July 2012)

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, Labor Market Information Division.

alabama nonagricultural employment change in number of jobs
Alabama Nonagricultural EmploymentChange in Number of Jobs

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, Labor Market Information Division.

share of total nonfarm employment 2011 and share of alabama gross domestic product 2010
Share of Total Nonfarm Employment (2011) andShare of Alabama Gross Domestic Product (2010)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.

tax revenues fiscal year to date july
Tax Revenues (Fiscal Year to Date, July)

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue.

total monthly nonfarm employment and unemployment rate
Total Monthly Nonfarm Employmentand Unemployment Rate

Employment (Thousands), Unemployment Rate (Percent)

January 1990 – July 2012

Nonfarm Employment

Unemployment Rate

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.

total annual nonfarm employment and unemployment rate
Total Annual Nonfarm Employmentand Unemployment Rate

Employment (Thousands), Unemployment Rate (Percent)

1990-2012

Employment

Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment

Unemployment Rate

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.

abci history
ABCI™ History

Index

50.2

31.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

business environment expectations
Business Environment Expectations

Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012

industry performance expectations sales and profits
Industry Performance ExpectationsSales and Profits

Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012

Sales Profits

industry performance expectations hiring plans and capital expenditures
Industry Performance ExpectationsHiring Plans and Capital Expenditures

Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012

Hiring Plans Capital Expenditures

slide19
ABCI™

Index

2010 2011 2012

alabama forecast summary
Alabama Forecast Summary
  • This Alabama GDP and employment forecast summary is the CBERJuly 2012 preliminary forecast
  • Preliminary 2013 forecast included below

Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent)

alabama gross domestic product and employment by metro areas
Alabama Gross Domestic Product andEmployment by Metro Areas

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, U.S. Bureau for Economic Analysis.

population gains varied widely over last decade
Population gains varied widely over last decade

4/1/2000 to 4/1/2010

Number Percent

4/1/2010 Change Change

Alabama 4,779,736 332,636 7.5

Anniston-Oxford 118,572 6,323 5.6

Auburn-Opelika 140,247 25,155 21.9

Birmingham-Hoover 1,128,047 75,809 7.2

Decatur 153,829 7,962 5.5

Dothan 145,639 14,778 11.3

Florence-Muscle Shoals 147,137 4,187 2.9

Gadsden 104,430 971 0.9

Huntsville 417,593 75,217 22.0

Mobile 412,992 13,149 3.3

Montgomery 374,536 28,008 8.1

Tuscaloosa 219,461 27,427 14.3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

metro area unemployment rates
Metro-Area Unemployment Rates

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, Labor Market Information Division.

no metro back to 2007 2008 annual peak in 2011
No metro back to 2007/2008 annual peak in 2011

2007 or 2008 Job Loss to 2011

Nonfarm Employment Peak Year Number Percent

Alabama 2,003,800 -134,800 -6.7

Anniston-Oxford 53,500 -4,800 -9.0

Auburn-Opelika 54,800 -2,200 -4.0

Birmingham-Hoover 531,300 -43,200 -8.1

Decatur 58,500 -5,100 -8.7

Dothan 63,100 -7,000 -11.1

Florence-Muscle Shoals 57,300 -1,800 -3.1

Gadsden* 38,100 -2,900 -7.6

Huntsville* 214,300 -6,600 -3.1

Mobile* 184,700 -9,800 -5.3

Montgomery 179,200 -13,200 -7.4

Tuscaloosa* 98,500 -5,800 -5.9

Net Jobs in Metropolitan Areas -102,400

Net Jobs in Nonmetro Counties -32,400

* Gadsden, Huntsville, Mobile, and Tuscaloosa employment peaked in 2008; all others saw peaks in 2007.

Note: Nonfarm employment (jobs) is by place of work. Data are January to November averages.

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

change in tuscaloosa metro employment from the beginning of the recession
Change in Tuscaloosa Metro Employment From the Beginning of the Recession

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

tuscaloosa metro area gdp and nonfarm employment
Tuscaloosa Metro AreaGDP and Nonfarm Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, and Center for Business and

Economic Research, the University of Alabama.

slide30

Questions, comments, suggestions, discussion,…

Thank You

Ahmad Ijaz

Center for Business and Economic Research

Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration

The University of Alabama

http://cber.cba.ua.edu (205) 348-6191