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Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

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Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

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  1. Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure Maarten Cuijpers

  2. Fast development of EV technology over the last decade Tesla Roadster Chevrolet Bolt / Opel Ampera-E 2008 - $109,000 – 320 km 2018 - $37.495 - 383 km 2035 ? Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

  3. So.. what can we expect in the long term? What are future scenarios for the uptake of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure until 2035 in the Netherlands? Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

  4. Key driversEnergy transition, carsharing and autonomous driving Fast energy transition Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Limited sharing economy and autonomous driving Strong sharing economy and autonomous driving Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Slow energy transition Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

  5. Three step model Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

  6. Results scenario 1 and 4Electric cars and required charging infrastructure Scenario 1 Scenario 4 Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

  7. Key conclusions • TCO for electric vehicles is fast becoming favourable over fossil fuelled vehicles • 2017  Business drivers • 2018-2020  Commute drivers • 2020–2027  Private drivers • 2019-2023  Light commercial vehicles (vans) Significantly more charging infrastructure is needed to facilitate EVs, already in the short term • Work chargers  +300% in 2020 (≈ 51.000) • Public chargers  +170% in 2020 (≈ 45.000) • Home chargers  +30% in 2020 (≈ 78.000) • Corridor chargers (fast chargers) are key for long distances, but no alternative to slow (parking) chargers in the short term. Carsharing and autonomous driving can revolutionise (electric) mobility • Carsharing can reduce the size of the vehicle fleet by 50% in 2050 • (Fully) autonomous vehicles potentially gaining market share from 2025 onwards, strongly stimulating carsharing initiatives • Carsharing and autonomous driving can reduce the required charging infrastructure by 25% in 2035 Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

  8. Recommendations • Stimulate the development of charging infrastructure, primarily focussing on public charging infrastructure and work charging infrastructure • Stimulate the development of car sharing and autonomous driving through innovation and the removal of legislative barriers • Develop a system in which smart charging services can be delivered as a facilitator for the energy transition • Further research needed to better understand the charging preferences of future EV drivers Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

  9. Questions, please contact: Maarten Cuijpers m.cuijpers@ecofys.com For the full report, please visit: www.ecofys.com Name

  10. Backup – charging infrastructure model Name