Joint Operating Environment Towards 2035

1. Joint Operating Environment Towards 2035 Mr. Joe Purser Director, JFCOM Futures Group Distribution “A” Requests for this document shall be referred to: Center for Joint Futures HQ; U.S. Joint Forces Command 112 Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk, VA 23435-2697 Attn: Mr. Paul Martin, Phone: 757-203-3129 1

2. The Joint Operating Environment (JOE) • Provides context for the future joint force – the “demand signals” for JCDE • Reviews the trends and disruptions that will create change • Trends combine in different ways to form operational contexts that will frame future challenges • Contexts lead to implications, or challenges for the joint force We won’t get it all right – but we can’t afford to get it all wrong

3. The international environment will change – sometimes dramatically… • Demographics– migration, growth, urbanization, aging, youth bulges. • Globalization– transparency, fast-moving information and money, with global audience. • Technology – rapid rate of change, proliferation, asymmetric developments. • Scarcity of Natural Resources – food, water, energy • Rising state powers – economies, militaries, influence. • Rising power of non-state actors – growth of ideological, religious, and identity-based groups, less bound by conventions. • Weapons of Mass Destruction – Cheaper and more effective ways to kill, injure, disrupt and terrorize available to a wider array of international actors.

4. United States 2030 Trends – U.S. Demographics Retired Cohort Wage Earning Cohort Schooling Cohort The Past The Present The Future AGE 85+ United States 2007 AGE 0-4 12 6 0 0 6 12 Male Female Millions

5. Russia Germany Japan United States China Mexico Yemen Nigeria Brazil India Trends – World Demographics • Demographics: Population by Age • Eight billion people in the world by 2025 (2 billion more than today). • Nearly all growth in the developing world. • Absolute decline in Europe, Japan, Russia, and Korea. • The U.S. will add 50 million people by 2025 (unique among the developed countries of the world). Population Reference Bureau World Population 2008: 6.7 Billion 8 6 4 2 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

6. Distance no object Some of the world’s most important current migration routes SOURCES: National Public RadioThe Economist Trends - Migration & Population Change • The Global Movement of Peoples • Unprecedented migrant flows around the world. • Muslims/Africans to Europe. • Chinese to Siberia, Central Asians to Russia • Indigenous Europeans to U.S./Australia/Canada • Latin Americans to the United States • Movement toward areas of effective governance and to cities (whether well governed or not). • Away from areas of famine, drought, floods, or other climatic disasters. • Brain drain of skilled classes from the undeveloped world.

7. World’sLargest Cities 2005 2020 • Tokyo • Mumbai • Delhi • Dacca • Mexico City • Calcutta • Lagos • Tokyo • Mexico City • Mumbai • New York • Sao Paulo • Delhi • Calcutta Major Urban Environments • As of last year >50% of the world’s population lived in cities. Rural growth is flat. • By 2030, 65 % of humanity will live in cities – 5½ billion human beings. • Large urban areas are usually near the oceans and subject to severe environmental, social, and political pressures.

8. Regional Share ofthe Global Economy (%) 2008 33 19 31 17 - - 2025 30 30 16 11 13 NorthAmerica EastAsia EU Other SouthAsia Reversal of globalization would constitute a major shock with dramatic consequences Trends - Economics and Globalization • The Rise of new Asian Economic Powers will re-define the Global Economy • 11 countries in the developing world with populations over 100 million and GDP over $100 billion. • China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Vietnam • Changing Balance of Creditor and Debtor Nations • US $ under assault as World Reserve Currency

9. Remittance Inflows India – $27 billion China – $25.7 billion Mexico – $25 billion Philippines – $17 billion Bangladesh – $6.4 billion Pakistan – $6.1 billion Indonesia – $6.0 billion Egypt – $5.9 billion Morocco – $5.7 billion Lebanon – $5.5 billion Trends - Remittances Remittance Outflows U.S. – $42.2 billion Japan – $3.4 billion Europe – 25.4 billion Gulf – $20.1 billion • Total remittances sent home by foreign workers exceeds the value • of all foreign aid and foreign capital investments combined • The single greatest income source for many developing countries Source: Migration and Remittances Handbook, Development Prospects Group, World Bank (2006)

10. Food Disruptions and Embargos Trends - Resource Scarcity: Water & Food Percent of humanity subject to water scarcity: • 2025: 10% • 2050: up to 33% Growing concerns over food scarcity. In 2008: • 19 Grain Export Embargos • 10 riots due to food distribution anomalies • The Meaning of Food and Water Scarcity • Increasing stress on water supplies, desertification and shifting growth bands impact • water and food production and affect regional politics. • Potential for Agflation as water, oil for fertilizer, increasingly scarce land, and overall • demand drive up the cost of food. • Prices increasing as China, India, and others industrialize, leading to greater • competition over natural resources

11. Trends - Resource Scarcity: Energy The Meaning of Energy Competition • Energy demand follows population and economic growth. • Developing countries with increasing demand seek to transition to developed status. • Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives arrive. • For China alone to develop a Western middle-class would require all the world’s current energy resources. • Should encourage innovation and energy diversity

12. Non-conventional Products and techniques Era of Peak Oil Future World Oil Production Trends - Resource Scarcity: Energy The Meaning of Energy Competition • Energy demand follows population and economic growth. • Developing countries with increasing demand seek to transition to developed status. • Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives arrive. • For China alone to develop a Western middle-class would require all the world’s current energy resources. • Should encourage innovation and energy diversity 118 mb/d ? Enhanced recoveries Development of known reserves Existing Capacity

13. Trends – CO2, Temperatures, Sea Level Rise Atmospheric Concentration of CO2 CO2 levels in the atmosphere 100% greater today than 100 years ago. Global avg. temperature has increased ~1.5 degrees. Sea levels rise as global temperature increases. For every 1 cm of vertical sea rise, 1-10 m of coastline is inundated.

14. Trends – Risks from Sea Level Rise and Storms Beijing New York Los Angeles Tokyo Delhi Shanghai Cairo Dacca Karachi Calcutta Mexico City Mumbai Lagos Jakarta Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Key = Big Risk = Moderate Risk Buenos Aires Data from the UN Habitat State of the World’s Cities 2008/9 • Two-thirds of major urban areas are partially in the 0-10meter zone. • 21 % of the urban populations of the least developed nations are in the zone. • About 75% of people in the zone are in Asia. • Poor countries — and poor communities within them — are most at risk.

15. Major Space Launch Sites Mapped to Antipodes Trends – Access to New “Key Terrain” The Future of “Key Terrain” Geographic Features, trade routes, ports and airfields will remain important terrain features for the joint force commander to consider; while orbital slots, launch site antipodes, …

16. Undersea cable Internet capacity Links – The Cyber Commons Internet users affected by outage … littoral undersea environments, fiber-optic and server hubs may be equally important in the future. DNS Root Server Locations

17. Trends - Cyber & Information Technologies Snapshot: Global Network 2030 • Real world simulated in virtual environments • Real-time “Google Earth?” • Immersive environments • Real word infused with embedded computation • Meta-tagged world • Augmented reality • Real and Virtual Worlds merge. • Infosphere with 6 billion “human brain” equivalent – nearing the total processing power of humanity itself.

18. Trends - Cyber & Information Technologies

19. Waves of IT Industry Growth in the Information Age 10,000 1,000 Millions of Users 100 10 1 2030 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1970 SOURCE: David Moschella, “Waves of Power”

20. Trends - Emerging Technological Challenges • Mass being offset by increased precision at greater ranges at decreasing cost. All adversaries will have access to precision anti-access weaponry. • Accelerated information technologies and massive latent computing capacity creates massive parallel network computing. • ISR will get even more intrusive and ubiquitous, requiring tremendous new information storage, processing dissemination, and security capabilities. • Advanced space navigation and remote sensing more widely available.

21. …leading to Contexts of Conflict and War • Cooperation and Competition among conventional (state)powerswill provide a number of challenges and threats to the joint force • Weak and failing states will require engagement and cooperation • Large, sprawling urban areas with dynamic pressures in which the joint force must operate • Threats from Unconventional states and non-state powers that will confront us with new and innovative ways to wage war • Battle of the Narrative will bring populations directly in touch with joint force operations and shape perceptions • Defense of the US Homeland will require operations abroad and at home Contexts are the confluence of two or more trends and illuminate why wars occur and how they might be waged.

22. Context: Cooperation and Competition Among Conventional Powers • Potential Future Examples • Rise of China and India • Shanghai Cooperation Organization. • Relations with Europe, Japan, Korea • Russia’s “Frontier of Instability” • Historical Examples • Congress of Vienna • Monroe Doctrine • World War II • Cold War • 1990-2005 China • Implications for the Joint Force • Longer-range, more-precise weapons are more widely available and cheaper • Ubiquitous Anti-Access Weapons • U.S. and others may no longer be able to operate freely in the global commons (air, sea, space). • Technology, WMD proliferation, and globalization will bring homeland into reach. • The joint force will have a role preventing conflicts between other great states. • Potential For Conflict • Relative balance of military and economic power shifts • New combinations of regional powers/alliances • Struggle for control of international organizations • Risks • Growing powers not accommodated or properly represented in international forums • Emergence of unfavorable balances of power • Breakup of traditional alliances • Loss of access to Global Commons • Forced U.S. isolation

23. Context: Weak and Failing States • Historical Examples • Ottoman Empire • China 1850-1930 • Soviet Union • Yugoslavia • Congo • Somalia • Haiti • Potential Future Examples • North Korea • Mexico • Nigeria • Pakistan • Zimbabwe • Potential For Conflict • At-risk states are: • Politically unstable • Challenged by rebels and terrorists • May resort to mass killings of civilians • Enmeshed in international crises • Risks • 77% of all conflicts involve an unstable or failing state • Failed/Failing State = threat to international peace • Havens for disruptive non-state actors • Implications for the Joint Force • Early identification and diagnosis • Responding to early signs of trouble • Capabilities to enhance or restore stability • Mitigate effects of state failure

24. Context: Security In Urban Environments • Potential Future Examples • Sao Paulo • Karachi • Dacca • Cairo • Lagos • Jakarta • Historical Examples • Hue • Beirut • Sarajevo • Grozny • Fallujah • Baghdad • Implications for the Joint Force • Shelter from U.S. advantages in ISR and fires • U.S. must separate adversaries from noncombatant civilian populations • Governance & stability packages • High casualty rates • Context for Homeland Security as well • Risks • Humanitarian disaster • Haven for international terrorists • Fortress for conventional forces • Potential For Conflict • Wars occur where humans live. • Most human wealth is located in cities • Cities provide places to hide • Connects to: • Financial resources • Travel systems • Communication networks

25. Contexts: Threats from Unconventional Powers • Historical Examples • COMINTERN • Viet Cong • Hezbollah • Tamil Tigers • Al Qaida • North Korea • Potential Future Examples • North Korea • Iran • ‘Hybrid’ Militias and Proxies • Regional/Global Criminal Gangs • Transnational corporations • Implications for the Joint Force • Battle of Narratives. • Changing Means of Deterrence • Able to take advantage of the forces of globalization • Will fight without adherence to formal ‘rules of war’ • Requires source of Legitimacy and Comprehensive Approach • Risks • Erosion of convention-based international system • Global Terrorism • WMD Proliferation • Potential For Conflict • Groups and States not bound by conventions • Identity-based ideology • Ideology-based identities • Definitions of ‘Modernity’ • Weakening of Western Ideas and Ideals

26. Contexts: Battle of Narratives over Global Networks • Potential Future Examples • Patriotic Hacktivists • Sunni Extremists/ AQ 2.0 • Iranian Proxies/Shia Extremists • Transnational corporations • Historical Examples • Vietnam War • Hezbollah • Al Qaida • Implications for the Joint Force • Battle of Narratives. • Identities forged via the internet and other communications technologies. • Able to take advantage of the forces of globalization • Local conflicts have Global impact • NGO’s can help with local cultural awareness. • Potential For Conflict • Identity rooted in social and cultural blood and soil connections. • States must increasingly compete for allegiance. • Human migration and ubiquitous communications complicate identities. • Changing politics in developed countries • Risks • Erosion of state-based international system. • “Democratization of Violence.” • Global Terrorism

27. Context: Protection of the Homeland • Potential Future Examples • Pandemic/Natural Disaster • Border Defense • National Missile Defense • Adversary use of Media • Cybersecurity against massive cyberattack • Terrorism/SOF Infiltration • Secession/Rebellion • Historical Examples • War of 1812 • Villa Incursion • Pearl Harbor • Anthrax Attacks • Hurricane Katrina • Infiltration of Illegal Immigrants • Implications for the Joint Force • Increased role for the Joint Force in domestic disasters • Attacks against the Joint Force at home bases possible. • WMD attacks on key US nodes • Protection of “homeland” will include elements of cyberspace • Direct “attacks” against U.S. perceptions and National Will • Potential For Conflict • Homeland no longer “off limits” for adversaries • Greater technological reach by adversaries • More access to the U.S. through ports/airlines/computer networks/space/ISR • Federalization of natural disasters • Risks • Domestic security concerns overwhelm local/state authorities • Access to our population • US unable to secure its borders from multiple, overlapping challenges

28. Implications - Adaptability of Future Adversaries • Adversaries do not wage discrete land, sea, air, space or cyberspace wars - Instead, they use all elements of power to wage war • Adversaries are examining the U.S. way of war, and developing different technical capabilities to negate U.S technological advantages or to exploit technologies as military capabilities • Adversaries will adapt military practice to: • construct a mix of conventional, irregular warfare, and nuclear threats • blur the line between political conflict and open war • place U.S. forces in strategic dilemmas by developing strategies to avoid our advantages and confront us with their own asymmetries. • They will use: • Globally ranging networks and open-source capabilities (internet, commercial navigation and imagery) • Increasing technical equality to make anti-access strategies challenging in all domains. • Mobility, mass, information, and precision fires on U.S. forces while denying our ability to respond

29. Professional Military Education PME must develop broad understanding of the world More detailed cultural training and awareness Personnel Systems Transform mobilization-based development paradigm Incentivize adaptability and innovation Defense Economics and Acquisition Adversaries outpacing our system Tempo of acquisition is having strategic effects Some Leading Questions

30. 2009 Stimulus +5.7% GDP 2008 Stabilization Act +5% GDP US Spending vs. Tax Revenues as a Percentage of GDP The current configuration of government entitlements, plus interest on the debt will pinch discretionary spending as government takes an increasing share of national revenue

31. Much about conflict will remain the same… • War is a human endeavor • War is an extension of policy • Local political considerations will (continue) to dominate. • Democratization of politics, by extension, will be the democratization of war. • Our enemies will continue to target our vulnerabilities • Enemy is a willful, learning, and adaptive force • The enemy will likely be able to learn and adapt faster than we can unless we change • Friction is unavoidable – technology can not erase it • Surprise will continue to be a major factor – maybe the dominant factor Must build a force that is adaptable, agile, and resilient

32. Questions? Center for Joint Futures Joseph.purser@jfcom.mil https//www.jfcom.mil/ The JOE 2008 is available for download at: http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2008/JOE2008.pdf The JOE Overview Fact Sheet is available at: http://www.jfcom.mil/about/facts_prt/JOE2008.pdf Distribution “A” Requests for this document shall be referred to: Center for Joint Futures HQ; U.S. Joint Forces Command 112 Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk, VA 23435-2697 Attn: Mr. Paul Martin, Phone: 757-203-3129 34