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The Relationship Between GDP per capita & Health, Education and the Environment. David Zafar Ahmed Stéphanie Eller Séverine Erismann December 4 th , 2009. Content. - Hypothesis - Statistical tools - GDP per capita - Results: - Health - Education - Environment - Conclusions

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the relationship between gdp per capita health education and the environment

The Relationship Between GDP per capita & Health, Education and the Environment

David Zafar Ahmed

Stéphanie Eller

Séverine Erismann

December 4th, 2009

content
Content
  • - Hypothesis
  • - Statistical tools
  • - GDP per capita
  • - Results: - Health

- Education

- Environment

  • - Conclusions
  • - Future work
hypothesis
Hypothesis
  • Higher GDP per capita leads to better Health & Education systems, and more Environmental degradation resp. higher CO2-emmissions
  • Comparingdevelopmentindicators in Europe and Asia
  • Global Data: Reliable source
  • Validity: Methods & Indicators
  • Assumptions…
statistical tools
Statistical Tools
  • PP1
    • - Center- Mean, Median (Quartiles)
    • - Variability- Standard Deviation, Range
  • PP2
    • - Comparison of means of two Regions- z-score, t-test, F-test- Outliers
  • PP3
    • - Linear Correlation Analysis (r), Scatter plot, - Regression Model: Bivariate and Multiple Linear Regression, Multicollinearity, P-value, Coefficient, R-squared, Heteroskedaticity
gdp per capita
GDP per capita

Box plot showing GDP per capita acrossregions

  • Outliers
  • Heterogenous economies
results health
Results: Health

Relation between GDPPC and PHY in the world

  • Assumption: the higher the GDPPC, the higher are the healthindicators

1) Shape – linear or non- linear? Relationship or some association?

2) Problems of Multicollinearity?

slide7

Relation between GDPPC and PHY in Asia

Relation between GDPPC and PHY in Europe

results education
Results: Education

Relation between GDPPC and ALR in the world

  • Assumption: the higher the GDPPC, the higher the ALR

- Systematic Lack of Data

- Possibly Non-Linear

- Low correlation levels

slide9

Relation between GDPPC and ALR in Europe

Relation between GDPPC and ALR in Asia

results environment
Results: Environment

Assumption: the higher the GDPPC, the higher the level of CO2PC

Relation between GDPPC and CO2PC in the world

Highest Correlation (r = 0.7)

Bivariate Regression:Worldr= 0.61Regional: Europe and Asia have the same explanatory power and 50% of CO2PC can be explained by GDPPC

slide11

Relation between GDPPC and CO2PC in Asia

Relation between GDPPC and CO2PC in Europe

conclusions
Conclusions
  • - What’s new about your approach?
    • New to us!
  • - What did you learn from this exercise?
    • Reaffirms some assumptions, but Statistical analysis can help provide a nuanced approach.
  • - Policy implications
    • Health-Model insufficient for concrete recommendations Education- Lack of info, resources dedicated to data-gathering
    • Environment- The relationship between GDP per capita CO2 per capita shows a stronger relationship in the regions of Asia and Europe than our selected health and education variables.

Asia – Industrialization, environmental impactsEurope- Technology & Innovation, environmental protection

future work
Future work
  • Limitations
    • - Widespread lack of Educational data
    • - GPD per capita NOT the whole story! (necessary but not sufficient variable, condition for development, other indicators that help to explain these 3 areas, more data needed)
    • Multicollinearity
  • What’s Missing?
    • Polynomial Regression Analysis (Beyond You & Me)
  • Continued Research
    • These are complex issues, more indicators needed for comprehensive analysis
    • Disaggregate the Issues (breakdown into sub-categories within

Health, Education, and Environment + alternatives to the categorisation of regions )