Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture by 2100: Opportunities and Challenges
By 2100, a 4-degree rise in global temperatures is expected to profoundly impact agriculture. In some areas of Kenya and Tanzania, a longer growing season may be beneficial, but overall, shrinking growing seasons will threaten food security, particularly in vulnerable regions. Increased frequency of extreme weather events will put immense pressure on livelihoods, with extreme hurricanes becoming more intense. Adapting through climate-smart agriculture is essential for building resilience, reducing vulnerabilities, and ensuring food security for the poorest communities facing severe risks by 2050.
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture by 2100: Opportunities and Challenges
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Presentation Transcript
Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and rainfall Length of growing period (%) Good news: longer growing seasons in parts of Kenya and Tanzania >20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain To 2090, taking 14 climate models Four degree rise Bad news: shorter growing seasons almost everywhere else Thornton et al. 2010
Impacts 2: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events Good news: hurricanes likely to decrease in frequency Bad news: hurricanes more intense, category 4 & 5 hurricanes twice as frequent Pulwaty 2010
Impacts 3: Major transitions in ecosystems and livelihoods Good news: increased catches in high latitudes of Pacific Bad news: huge loss of species, coral bleaching, widely reduced catches 2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario Cheung et al 2010
Impacts 4: Poorest at risk By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia (uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socio-economic models) Lloyd et al. 2011 Environmental Health Perspectives
Food security Ecological footprint Adaptation “Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context
Technology Income & assets Infrastructure Governance & institutions Access to information Knowledge & skills Adaptive capacity Social capital
Key adaptation strategies • Incremental adaptation to progressive climate change • Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification) • Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s • Climate risk management • Technologies (e.g. floodcontrol) • Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance) • Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts) • Transformative adaptation • Changing production systems • Changing livelihood portfolios
Adapting to long-term climate trends • Example: Climate analogue tool • Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality • These sites are used for cross-site farmer visits, & participatory crop & livestock trials
Example: Climate services • Met services produce forecast information downscaled in space & time • Farmers & met services work together to ensure forecasts meet local needs Adapting to greater climate variability
To transformational adaptation? • Relocation of growing areas & processing facilities • Agricultural diversification, or shifts • Livelihood diversification, or shifts • Migration
Climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture: • Are more complex than often assumed – and happening faster than often assumed • Are unevenly distributed geographically • Depend on household and national capacities and contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats • Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and health among poorer households
Responding with climate-smart agriculture: • Is foremost about development – addressing smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience • Adds new actions on climate to sustainable development • Deals with trade-offs, not only “win-win-wins” • Must be “landscape-smart” too • Will not solve future food security on its own (need actions on distribution, diets, waste)
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