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Impacts

Impacts. 4 degrees by 2100 is likely. Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and rainfall. Length of growing period (%) . Good news: longer growing seasons in parts of Kenya and Tanzania . >20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain. To 2090, taking 14 climate models

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Impacts

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  1. Impacts

  2. 4 degrees by 2100 is likely

  3. Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and rainfall Length of growing period (%) Good news: longer growing seasons in parts of Kenya and Tanzania >20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain To 2090, taking 14 climate models Four degree rise Bad news: shorter growing seasons almost everywhere else Thornton et al. 2010

  4. Impacts 2: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events Good news: hurricanes likely to decrease in frequency Bad news: hurricanes more intense, category 4 & 5 hurricanes twice as frequent Pulwaty 2010

  5. Impacts 3: Major transitions in ecosystems and livelihoods Good news: increased catches in high latitudes of Pacific Bad news: huge loss of species, coral bleaching, widely reduced catches 2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario Cheung et al 2010

  6. Impacts 4: Poorest at risk By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia (uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socio-economic models) Lloyd et al. 2011 Environmental Health Perspectives

  7. Becoming “climate smart”

  8. Food security Ecological footprint Adaptation “Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context

  9. Adaptation

  10. Technology Income & assets Infrastructure Governance & institutions Access to information Knowledge & skills Adaptive capacity Social capital

  11. Key adaptation strategies • Incremental adaptation to progressive climate change • Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification) • Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s • Climate risk management • Technologies (e.g. floodcontrol) • Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance) • Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts) • Transformative adaptation • Changing production systems • Changing livelihood portfolios

  12. Adapting to long-term climate trends • Example: Climate analogue tool • Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality • These sites are used for cross-site farmer visits, & participatory crop & livestock trials

  13. Example: Climate services • Met services produce forecast information downscaled in space & time • Farmers & met services work together to ensure forecasts meet local needs Adapting to greater climate variability

  14. To transformational adaptation? • Relocation of growing areas & processing facilities • Agricultural diversification, or shifts • Livelihood diversification, or shifts • Migration

  15. Summary points

  16. Climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture: • Are more complex than often assumed – and happening faster than often assumed • Are unevenly distributed geographically • Depend on household and national capacities and contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats • Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and health among poorer households

  17. Responding with climate-smart agriculture: • Is foremost about development – addressing smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience • Adds new actions on climate to sustainable development • Deals with trade-offs, not only “win-win-wins” • Must be “landscape-smart” too • Will not solve future food security on its own (need actions on distribution, diets, waste)

  18. www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for news on agriculture & climate change follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

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