New Directions in US-China-ASEAN Relations: Opportunity and Choice

1. New Directions in US-China-ASEAN Relations: Opportunity and Choice Ju, Hailong Professor, Executive Director of China’s South China Sea Strategy Service Jinan University

2. Outline • Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directions: 2009-2013 • The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional Order • The Choices and the Opportunities • The Conclusion

3. Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directions: 2009-2013 • The increasing tension of SCS disputes • Three different force in determining the future • Two different directions of the future

4. Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directions: 2009-2013 • The increasing tension of SCS disputes • The end of December 2009 is the deadline of the outer continental shelf application to the United Nations. • As the applications were proposed by Vietnam, Philippine, Malaysia, and China. The South China Sea Issue was changed knottier and knottier as the overlapping declarations were declared. • Disputes of oil and gas exploitation, confront with each other around controversial islands, targeted “shuttle diplomacy” and diplomatic cooperation, suggestive joint military exercises, all together made SCS a regional hotspot with crisis.

5. Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directions: 2009-2013 • Different force in determining the future: • Hilary announced that America returned to South East Asia, and the U.S. had a huge stake in SCS. The U.S. strengthen the relations with almost all the ASEAN countries, and made them focused on the regional security issues. The U.S. is the most important force who can determine the future. • AS ASEAN's rotating presidency, Vietnam took the strong policies on SCSI and lead the ASEAN policies focused on the SCS security in 2010. The SCSI was also the most important problem in the Aquino Ⅲ’s foreign policies. Other ASEAN countries still took development as more important. ASEAN is the 2ed determine force. • China is the biggest economic power. It deserve to be the 3ir important determine force.

6. Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directions: 2009-2013 • Two different directions of the future: • The first direction: take regional security as the most important thing in the future. • The U.S. has led this direction. Vietnam and Philippine had gone on the same path with the U.S. for their economical interests. • The second direction: take development as the most important thing in the future. • Although China had paid more attention to the regional security problem, it still took economic developing as the most important task for the future. • Most ASEAN countries took economic developing as the more important things than regional security.

7. The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional Order • Rebalancing policy, SCSI, and “divide and rule” • The dilemmas for a new rising power to continue a peaceful developing road • Swing between economical cooperation and security opposite

8. The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional Order • Rebalancing policy, SCSI, and “divide and rule” • Asia-Pacific strategic situation has been dominated by the U.S. for more than 60 years. The U.S.-Japan-Asian tigers-China and other Asian countries constitute a echelon allocation system in power level. This system support the US-led East Asian order. • The development of Chinese economical power and the decline of Japanese economical power impacted the US-led East Asian order. China became the leading challenger to the US-led order. • In order to hold the dominating power in East Asia, Obama implemented the rebalancing policy. The SCSI offered convenience to the policy and elicited hostile suspicions among China and it’s neighbors. • The East Asia countries had been sent into a tailspin for lacking of political and security mutual trust, and been divided and ruled by the power beyond Asia.

9. The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional Order • The dilemmas for a new rising power to Committee peaceful development • China has become the second largest economy, but it’s just a quantitative development. It will take China very long time to accomplish the economic and social transition. China need peaceful environmental to develop itself. • China-ASEAN free trade zone was established. The economical cooperation among “10+3” frame were expected. • The development of China and the economical cooperation impact the US-led economic order in East Asia. It has potentially threaten the leading position of the U.S. in East Asia • The crisis related to SCSI has put China smear into a kind of menace to international rules and regional security

10. The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional Order • Swing between economical cooperation and security opposite • Most ASEAN countries need a long peaceful time to develop themselves. However, no one can ignore the oil interests in SCS. especially for those depending on the high energy consumption. • It’s a good chance for those who want to make more interests from SCS after the rebalance policies have been carried out. Getting stuck with America means more security protection and more oil interests possibility. • China is the imaginary enemy of the rebalance policies of U.S.. • China is the most important trade partner of most ASEAN countries. • No one can eat his cake and have it when he has to choose between economical cooperation and security opposite

11. The Choices and the Opportunities • The choices of the U.S. • The choice of China. • The choice of ASEAN countries. • The Opportunities

12. The Choices and the Opportunities • The choice of the U.S. • The U.S. has been regarding China as the main imaginary enemy in East Asia, and using it’s hard power, soft power, and smart power to contain and engage China since the end of last century. • The SCSI has been used as a point of carrying through the U.S.’s strategy of “dividing and ruling”. • The U.S. has effectively influenced the security relations among China and ASEAN countries.

13. The Choices and the Opportunities • The choice of China. • China has insisted on peaceful developing for more than 40 years, and has made significant achievements in economic construction. • However, the growing SCS disputes and security pressure has forced some Chinese scholars and officials to awake to the fact that it’s necessary for Chinese government to recognize the peaceful foreign policy and try to do something to deal with the predicament of SCSI.

14. The Choices and the Opportunities • The choice of ASEAN countries. • Most ASEAN countries know that opposition for security reasons will not only increase the cost of development, but also decrease the chance of economic cooperation. • It’s difficult for most ASEAN countries to put the SCS disputes aside and seek common development. • Setting rules and codes to deal with the disputes and bind Chinese international conducts are more important than common development.

15. The Opportunities and the Choices • The Opportunities • The relations between China and the U.S. has changed since Xi came to office. There will be more trust between these two countries. • The competition for international order between China and the U.S. is changing into the competition between economic cooperation and security opposite. • ASEAN countries will get more chance when facing the dilemmas of choosing between the two competing powers.

16. The Conclusion • The ASEAN countries will be the decisive power for the future. • The choice of ASEAN countries will not only be the most important factor for the competition between China and the U.S., but also for the peaceful development of East Asia.

17. Thanks