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Impact of E-commerce on Real GDP Growth: Insights from Economic Studies

This article analyzes the economic footprint of e-commerce on real GDP growth based on empirical studies from various researchers. The studies demonstrate a positive correlation between e-commerce activity and GDP growth, emphasizing the role of e-commerce in driving economic development and prosperity. Findings suggest that e-commerce enhances productivity, employment, and overall economic expansion, showcasing its growing influence on national economies. The methodology involves analyzing Eurostat data on e-commerce sales and real GDP growth rates to test the hypothesis of a significant correlation.

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Impact of E-commerce on Real GDP Growth: Insights from Economic Studies

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  1. Analyzing the Analyzing the economic footprint economic footprint of e of e- -commerce on commerce on real GDP growth real GDP growth Radomir Sylvester Robert, Șerbu Răzvan, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Sibiu, Romania First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  2. About myself • I’m specializing in economics, at Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu. • I work in the food sector and I’m passionate about finding new ways to improve it. • I believe thriving businesses in this sector drive broader growth. Robert, a Ph.D. student economic First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  3. About the article • This article presents a study examining how e-commerce sales influenced Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth from 2020 to 2022. • Using Eurostat data on e-commerce sales and Real GDP growth rate, the study focuses on businesses with 10 or more employees. • Results are expected to show a positive correlation between e- commerce activity and GDP growth, highlighting e-commerce's importance for economic development. The findings could inform business decisions and policymaking for sustainable growth. First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  4. E-commerce and Economic Growth • In Liu's (2012) study, an econometric model is utilized to investigate the connection between e-commerce advancement and economic growth, with a specific emphasis on the landscape of Chinese e- commerce. The findings of the study suggest that e-commerce not only fosters economic growth but also assumes a strategic position in driving overall economic expansion. First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  5. • In their 2015 study, Falk and Hagsten explored the link between e-commerce activities and labor productivity growth in 14 European countries spanning from 2002 to 2010. Their findings revealed a notable positive between e-sales productivity growth. correlation and labor First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  6. Impact of E-commerce on Real GDP and Economic Development • Smyrnova (2021) discussed current trends in digital communications by enterprises, noting the positive impact of e-business development on the world economy. The study pointed out that e-commerce accelerates economic growth, productivity, and enhances employment, underscoring the growing influence of e-commerce on national economic development. reduces inflation, increases First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  7. Methodology • The empirical analysis is grounded on data extracted from two principal sources: the "E-commerce sales of enterprises by size class of enterprise" (isoc_ec_esels) and the "Real GDP growth rate - volume" (tec00115), both of which are publicly available datasets provided by Eurostat. • H0 (Null Hypothesis): There is no statistically significant correlation between the intensity of e-commerce activity and the real GDP growth rates. • H1 (Alternative Hypothesis): There is a statistically significant correlation between the intensity of e-commerce activity and the real GDP growth rates. First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  8. Results Descriptive Statistics N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation EcommerceSales_mean 33 8,03 40,60 23,3066 7,79000 RealGDPGrowthRate_mean 33 33 ,17 10,37 2,3343 1,94489 Valid N (listwise) Aggregated means First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  9. Correlations Mean E- commerce Sales Mean Real GDP column (2020- Growth Rate 2022) (2020-2022) Mean E-commerce Sales Pearson Correlation 1 ,243 column (2020-2022) Sig. (2-tailed) ,172 N 33 33 Mean Real GDP Growth Pearson Correlation ,243 ,172 1 Rate (2020-2022) Sig. (2-tailed) N 33 33 First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  10. Discussion • E-commerce has emerged as a significant driver of economic growth, influencing GDP positively across various global contexts. The studies by Parishev et al. (2020) and Hossain (2022) underline e-commerce's contribution to economic prosperity in Europe and Bangladesh, respectively. Parishev et al. (2020) found that e-commerce, while having a weaker development-enhancing effect than gross capital formation, still significantly affects GDP per capital in European countries. First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  11. • The research on the economic contributions of e-commerce in the European Union by Soava, Mehedintu, and Sterpu (2022), forecasts significant growth in e-commerce adoption by 2025 and a positive correlation with GDP growth. This variability in e-commerce's impact, as seen across different studies, reflects the nuanced nature of its relationship with economic growth, suggesting that while e- commerce is an important driver, its effectiveness is influenced by factors such as digital infrastructure, government policies, and digital skills among the population. First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  12. • The comparative analysis by Parishev et al. (2020) further suggests that while e-commerce offers numerous benefits, its impact on GDP growth may not be as significant as traditional economic activities in certain contexts, highlighting the need for a balanced approach in evaluating e-commerce's economic contributions. First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  13. Conclusion • Our findings, while revealing a positive correlation between the intensity of e-commerce activity and real GDP growth rates, underscored a nuanced relationship. The analysis showed that countries with significant e-commerce sales demonstrated a favorable correlation with GDP growth. This relationship, however, was found to be less pronounced than initially anticipated, indicating a weak positive linear relationship between e-commerce intensity and real GDP growth rates. This outcome aligns with broader research in the field, which has similarly identified both the potential and limitations of e-commerce as a lever for economic development. First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  14. • As the digital economy continues to evolve, further research will be essential to unpack the nuanced dynamics between e-commerce and macroeconomic indicators. The advent of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence in the e-commerce space, presents additional layers of complexity and opportunity, promising to further reshape the economic landscape. First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

  15. Thank you! Thank you! First Annual FORTHEM conference First Annual FORTHEM conference FORTHEM FORTHEM – – For the Future For the Future March 6 March 6- -8, 2024 8, 2024

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