Post 2015: The Bellagio Summit

1. Post 2015: The Bellagio Summit How we got here and where we are heading Professor Mukesh Kapila

2. Consortium Partners • Center for International Governance Innovation (Canada) • Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) • International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (Geneva/Global) • International Poverty Reduction Center (China) • Korea Development Institute (Republic of Korea) • Manchester University (United Kingdom) • Tata Institute of Social Sciences (India) • University of Pretoria (South Africa) With thanks also to Rockefeller Foundation

3. Founding co-directors of Bellagio Initiative • Mukesh Kapila: formerly in senior positions at UK DFID, UN, WHO, IFRC, and now professor at Manchester University. Involved in the original framing of current MDGs • Barry Carin: former Deputy Assistant Minister in Canadian Government, Ambassador, G7/G8 sous Sherpa; now adjunct professor University of Victoria, and senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation

4. The spirit behind our process • Set up as a “global good” • “Open source” : share and use freely what you put in and take out • Institutional partners represent key diverse perspectives from around the world • Individuals invited for their personal knowledge and expertise • Informal space for all – UN, academics, governments, activists, civil society to talk as equals

5. Storyline (mid 2009 – Feb 2013 • In the beginning… • MDGs: strengths and weaknesses • Post 2015 development paradigm • The Bellagio proposal: post-2015 goals • Measurement challenges • Insights from Geneva, Paris, Beijing, Seoul, Pretoria, Mumbai, Rio consultations (Focus in/around BRICS) • Revised One World Goals: final report and presentation to UN in New York and IFIs in Washington DC Nov 2012 • Final stocktake Bellagio Feb 2013

6. In the beginning… • Assess original MDGs’ strengths and weaknesses • Integrate the voices of the poor into the post-2015 development paradigm • Expert meetings to produce framework • Use e-platform, technology, and consult national civil society (incl. IFRC National Societies) • Deliver findings to decision-makers

7. Current MDGs: Strengths • Raised priority of development • Accelerated global poverty reduction • Generated popular support, political buy-in • Increased investments and progress in specific development area • “Social focus”; health and education • Improved data on poverty

8. Current MDGs: weaknesses • Lack equity considerations – rising inequality • One size fits all • Left out growth, infrastructure, failed states good governance, job creation, security… • Restricted vision of fundamental values (definitions of “development” and “poverty” • Lack of accountability • Too few outcome targets and indicators • No local ownership • Ignored inter-linkages between goals

9. Development beyond 2015 • Shift outlook from just “development” to whole “world” • Requires a new paradigm while reaffirming the vision in the Millennium Declaration • Tactical reasons to be as aspirational as possible (“raise our sights”)

10. The sustainable “one world” paradigm “enabling everyone to take responsibility to lead productive lives with dignity, and to realise their fundamental human rights while fulfilling their obligations to relate fairly and respectfully to others and sharing planetary resources responsibly without compromising the needs of future generations”

11. Post 2015 framework • Global Goals • For each goal, Global Targets expressing overall impact, contributed to by countries selecting their own National Targets • With overall progress assessed by a package of Global Indicators and national progress by National Indicators selected from within globally approved list

12. Clarifying the terms Goals are where we aspire to eventually end up i.e. the final impact. Targets are the level of ambition the world and individual countries set themselves i.e. specific results to achieve over a defined time-scale Indicators are the measures by which progress towards targets is measured

13. Goal –setting: a fine balance Aspirational Comprehensiveness Complexity Universality Ends Measurable Conciseness Simplicity Country-specificity Means

14. Selection of Goals • May reflect already made agreements, and for which • Norms may already exist • Or there are agreed standards • Or there are general accepted principles • Span “individual” and “collective” • Expressed in POSITIVE language and OUTCOME oriented

15. The importance of measurement • “Not everything that counts can be counted.. Not everything that can be counted counts” • “Tell me what you’re going to measure; and I’ll tell you how I’m going to behave.” • “… without solid information we cannot measure where we are and what needs to be done…. If the world cannot get the right numbers, it cannot come out with the right solutions”. • Potential post 2015 goals needs a consensus on “smart” indicators to measure progress. • Refine options for “best” indicators for the goals that are finally agreed

16. Challenges re Indicators • Be accessible to lay reader • Measure outputs, not inputs • Comprehensive - reflecting whole sector outcomes • Sensitive to potential behaviour response • Direct measures, not indices • Avoid perception-based measures • Beware of process indicators • Info on disaggregation & distribution

17. Disaggregation BY • Gender • Economic group (Income bands) • Urban/rural • Subnational admin units • Minority or other specific vulnerable groups

18. And thus emerged 12 candidate One World Goals (OWG) • Individual endowments essential for achieving full human potential • Protecting and promoting collective human capital • Effective provision of global public goods

19. ONE WORLD GOALS

20. From MDG to OWG

21. Proposed Timescale • Span a generation i.e. 25 years: 2015 - 2040 • Reviews at 5 yearly intervals when indicators and targets can be adjusted

22. Our consultations What we heard and learnt…

23. Background Paper after Geneva and Bellagio • Express many dimensions of wellbeing, but limit # of targets • Targets should combine: -Comprehensiveness with conciseness -Complexity with simplicity -Principles with measurability -Universality with country-specificity -Ends with means -Ambition and achievability

24. Paris Insights • Refined thinking & indicator menu • Input to large debate on post-2015 - Beyond 2015 and UN conducting consultations • Focus on: targets, indicators, and measurement issues

25. Beijing Insights • Defining Poverty (debates on $ per day levels). • Develop specific targets/indicators for different countries and regions - current universal approach inappropriate • Given concerns on inequality, prefer measures of “poverty gap” reduction rather than share of poorest quintile. • Indicators for social protection (e.g. pension rate) • Disaggregate by gender, economic group, urban/rural, subnational admin units, and minority or specific vulnerable groups

26. Seoul Insights • Must address risk that “Global goals deemphasize focus on the poorest countries” • Other candidate goals: secondary & tertiary education; global financial system; human rights; urbanization; skill development; anti-corruption; tax evasion; land mine clearance. • Must address equitable access

27. Pretoria Insights • Significant concerns re diverting attention from current MDGs • Don’t be captive to existing data sources • Wealth of potential indicators for Health • Paucity of potential indicators for equitable economic rules, civil rights and global governance • Emphasize climate change as the environmental sustainability goal

28. Mumbai insights • Context is vital; the view from developing countries needs stronger emphasis; South South cooperation • Capture the multi-dimensions of poverty • Tackling inequalities even more urgent • Quality dimensions of development crucial • Sustainability seen from different sides • Accountability and system reform critical

29. Rio insights Awaited: Consultation on 6 Sept 2012

30. Basic Structure proposed by UN Report

31. Matching Bellagio One World Goals… • Violence and Vulnerability (Goal 5) • Political & Civil Rights (Goal 9) • Global Governance (Goal 12) • Disaster Reduction (Goal 7) • Environmental Sustainability (Goal 10) Environmental Sustainability Inclusive Economic Development Human Rights Equality Sustainability Peace & Security • Poverty Reduction (Goal 1) • Universal Connectivity (Goal 8) • Equitable Economic Rules (Goal 11) • Food & Water (Goal 2) • Universal Literacy (Goal 3) • Healthier Lives (Goal 4) • Gender Equality (Goal 6) Inclusive Social Development

32. Matching Bellagio One World Goals… • Violence and Vulnerability (Goal 5) • Political & Civil Rights (Goal 9) • Global Governance (Goal 12) • Disaster Reduction (Goal 7) • Environmental Sustainability (Goal 10) Environmental Sustainability Inclusive Economic Development Peace & Security • Education (Goal) • Migration (?) • Poverty Reduction (Goal 1) • Universal Connectivity (Goal 8) • Equitable Economic Rules (Goal 11) • Food & Water (Goal 2) • Universal Literacy (Goal 3) • Healthier Lives (Goal 4) • Gender Equality (Goal 6) Inclusive Social Development

33. Some issues still under consideration Need a a stronger focus on growth Also deal with • Sanitation • Migration • Urbanisation • Shelter • Infrastructure • Will consider if and how to address in next version

34. Revised One World Goals Will be available in September