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Thailand’s Export Opportunities : Decision Support Model Approach

For EIAS Seminar, Brussels . Thailand’s Export Opportunities : Decision Support Model Approach . Pimchanok Vonkhorporn Minister (Commercial) Head of Office of Commercial Affairs Royal Thai Embassy, Brussels 20 September 2012. DSM Discussion (1). General comments :

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Thailand’s Export Opportunities : Decision Support Model Approach

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  1. For EIAS Seminar, Brussels Thailand’s Export Opportunities : Decision Support Model Approach Pimchanok Vonkhorporn Minister (Commercial) Head of Office of Commercial Affairs Royal Thai Embassy, Brussels 20 September 2012

  2. DSM Discussion (1) • General comments : • Practical and simple methodology but requires database to be utilized by public • More detailed explanation in the actual paper would enable better understanding • Data a bit outdated, leading to slightly ambiguous outcomes • Similar to Thailand’s FTA selection but more academically sound • Will be useful as general guidelines not only for export promotion but for trade negotiations as well

  3. DSM Discussion (2) • Methodology and Outcomes • Methodology quite straightforward • Products selected after Filters 3.1 and 3.2 should be derivation of “intersection”, not “union” • Weighted calculation yields better results • Most outcomes are in line with Thailand’s export situation • Some results will be helpful in identifying potential markets and products eg. not enough agro-based products • But whether some should be promoted or not must be further studied especially products which Thailand has to import raw materials eg. Oil

  4. DSM Discussion (3) • Further improvements in the paper • Filters : some are not clearly explained eg. Market penetration is based on what factors • Trade restrictions : how to quantify or just taken them into account especially NTBs • Ability to export to that market doesn’t always mean that it has no restrictions but exporting countries may have adapted • Other indexes : can other indexes be included in future model to screen further countries eg., IMD competitiveness index, WB Ease of Doing Business • More readily available database will make the model more useful for development countries

  5. Thailand’s Exports 2011 $26,251 mil China 11.8% $24,158 mil $23,870 mil EU 10.8% $21,784 mil Japan 10.7% USA 9.8% ASEAN 24.28% $54,045 mil $72,471 mil Others 32.56% Source : Ministry of Commerce and Customs Department, 2011

  6. Major export items • Computers and parts (7.7%) • Motor cars, parts and acc. (7.6%) • Rubber (5.7%) • Gems and jewellery (5.5%) • Refined oil (4.5%) • Plastic pellets (4%) US$ 222.5 billion US$ 228.8 billion • Major import items • Crude oil (14.4%) • Machinery and parts (8.7%) • Gems, stones, silver, gold(8.7%) • Chemicals(6.5%) • Iron & steel products (6.1%) • Electrical machinery & parts (5.8%) Year 2011 Current account balance = 3.4%of GDP Source: Ministry of Commerce, Customs Department, tradingeconomics.com 2011

  7. TOP TEN TRADING PARTNERS (2011) Source: Ministry of Commerce and Customs Department, 2011

  8. ‘ One ASEAN at the Heart of Dynamic Asia ’ ASEAN

  9. THAILAND’S FTAs Thai-EU ASEAN-EU ASEAN-China Thai-EFTA ASEAN-Japan JTEPA USA ASEAN-GCC ASEAN-Korea RCEP ASEAN-India Thai-India ASEAN AEC BIMSTEC Peru ASEAN-MERCOSUR Thai-Australia ASEAN-CER Chile Thai-NewZealand Suspended Pending Approval Under Study Ongoing Negotiations FTAs in Force

  10. BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES: Partnership Building Regional Platform and Building blocs  BIMSTEC ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 RCEP FTAAP? Connecting Asia and the World  Investment Opportunities  AEC as a Single Market and Production Base (economies of scale, large markets, etc) Investment Opportunities Sectors  Auto and parts Machinery Chemical Food & Biotech Healthcare Alt./Ren. Energy Environment Logistics

  11. Connectivity Economic Corridor • NSEC (North-South Economic Corridor) Thailand-Myanmar-Lao-China • EWEC (East-West Economic Corridor) Myanmar-Thailand-Lao-Vietnam • Southern Economic Corridor Thailand-Cambodia-Vietnam How can Thailand capitalise on her location and endowment?

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