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The Potential Role of Water Quality Modeling in Coastal Acidification Management. Damian C. Brady, Ph.D. Ira C. Darling Marine Center University of Maine August 1 st , 2014. The Potential Role of Water Quality Modeling in Coastal Acidification Management. …or whatchya gonna do about it?.

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the potential role of water quality modeling in coastal acidification management

The Potential Role of Water Quality Modeling in Coastal Acidification Management

Damian C. Brady, Ph.D.

Ira C. Darling Marine Center

University of Maine

August 1st, 2014

the potential role of water quality modeling in coastal acidification management1

The Potential Role of Water Quality Modeling in Coastal Acidification Management

…or whatchyagonna do about it?

Damian C. Brady, Ph.D.

Ira C. Darling Marine Center

University of Maine

August 1st, 2014

first of all
First of all…
  • After we determine if acidification is a problem
  • Now what?...what do we do societally to ‘fix’ the problem
  • I know of no model of pH/aragonite saturation/alkalinity/DIC that is currently used to make management decisions
but there are interesting analogs to consider
But…there are interesting analogs to consider
  • We know that degradation of organic matter (and all respiration) can contribute to lowered dissolved oxygen and pH…increased CO2
  • We know that freshwater flow can bring in acidified water (Salisbury et al 2011)
  • We know that eutrophication and reduce the buffering capacity of estuaries (Cai et al 2011)
  • The relevant knob to turn becomes land derived nutrient and ‘pH’ loading…we’ve essentially been doing this for decades
models
MODELS
  • All models are wrong, some models are useful
  • Models come ins all sort of flavors and colors
    • But broadly speaking many of the management models we talk about are either empirical/deterministic or process based
    • There are advantages and disadvantages of both
empirical model

This is where your ecology/fisheries/resource management is added

Empirical Model
  • Develop a relationship between loading and hypoxic area (or “acidic” area
  • Then show this relationship to farmers and kindly ask them to reduce May nitrate+nitrite loading
empirical models
Empirical Models
  • They assume your time series contains all possible scenarios
  • Without process level understanding, you don’t know why your relationships work…some argue that without this understanding, predictions are doomed to fail…
chesapeake bay program decision support system the cadillac
Chesapeake Bay Program Decision Support System: “The Cadillac”?

Land Use

Change Model

Criteria

Assessment

Procedures

Bay

Model

Watershed

Model

Management Actions

Scenario

Builder

Airshed

Model

Sparrow

Effects

Allocations

process level models are complex and data intensive
Process Level Models are Complex and Data Intensive

Our challenge will be to fold in the calculation of aragonite saturation, DIC, pH, alkalinity into thes models

what do we have in maine
What do we have in Maine?
  • An amazing hydrodynamic modeling infrastructure
  • http://www.norwich.edu/about/news/2008/050208-cascoBayDyeMovie.html
  • An large monitoring network from DMR’s Division of Public Health, Citizen Monitoring Groups, NGO’s, Universities, DEP, etc
  • WHAT WE DO NOT HAVE?
    • Biogeochemical modeling
    • Watershed modeling
    • Ecosystem based approaches to dealing with abiotic management issues
slide17

Existing Cobscook Bay Model

20 m in the outer Cobscook Bay

existing saco casco bay model
Existing Saco-Casco Bay Model

> 8 m in Saco

> 20 m in Casco