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Dynamic soil acidification modeling in Switzerland

Dynamic soil acidification modeling in Switzerland. Partners: Mattias Alveteg, Harald Sverdrup and Per Warfvinge from Lund University, Sweden; Rolf Becker and Hans-Dieter Nagel from Ökodata, Germany;

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Dynamic soil acidification modeling in Switzerland

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  1. Dynamic soil acidification modeling in Switzerland Partners: • Mattias Alveteg, Harald Sverdrup and Per Warfvinge from Lund University, Sweden; • Rolf Becker and Hans-Dieter Nagel from Ökodata, Germany; • Peter Brassel, Edgar Kaufmann, Peter Blaser and Stefan Zimmermann from the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL); • Beat Rihm from Meteotest, Switzerland; • Sabine Braun from the Institute for Applied Plant Biology, Switzerland; The studies in Switzerland are coordinated and financed by the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscape (SAEFL) repre-sented by Beat Achermann and Richard Volz.

  2. Outline • Regional SAFE • National results • Scenario analysis results • Outlook In Switzerland, SAFE was applied • to the major rooting zone (the first 40 to 60 cm divided into 4 layers) • of 600 forest sites on intersections of a regular 4 x 4 km grid (National Forest Inventory), • using a simulation period of 250 years, • future acidifying deposition as to be expected from the implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol (GP99) • and future roundwood removal according to the European Timber Trend studies (ETTS_V).

  3. Regional SAFE - Step 1:Data acquisition

  4. Regional SAFE - Step 2:Data preparation

  5. Regional SAFE - Step 3:Soil chemistry modeling

  6. Data reduction • Removal of the depth-information by taking minimum, maximum or weighted parameter values (from 4 values to 1 value per site and year); • Removal of the spatial information by • calculating cumulative distribution functions and selected per-centile values for every year (from 600 values to e.g. 7 values per year). Plots of selected percentiles (5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 90 and 95) versus time; • comparing the parameter values with an agreed critical limit and calculating the percentage of sites violating this threshold (from 600 values to 1 value per year). Plots of the percentage of sites violating the threshold versus time.

  7. Trends of minimum molar Bc/Al and [ANC]National scale, 600 forest sites, GP99 and ETTS_V

  8. Trends of violation of parameter thresholdsNational scale, 600 forest sites, GP99 and ETTS_V

  9. Impact of emission reductions scenarios comparedNational scale, 600 forest sites, ETTS_V

  10. Impact of emission reductions scenarios comparedNational scale, 600 forest sites, ETTS_V

  11. Impact of forest management scenarios comparedRegional scale, 112 forest sites, GP99

  12. Impact of forest management scenarios comparedRegional scale, 112 forest sites, GP99

  13. Outlook - Lines of model development

  14. Outlook - Topics to be cleared • It is not clear yet, whether and how dynamic model results can be used in integrated assessment modeling and there is no agreement on deliverables yet; • Regarding the Convention, it looks like we still need both steady-state and dynamic modeling. Consequently, compatibility of steady-state and dynamic modeling (of acidification) regarding technicalities as well as input data becomes an issue; • With nitrogen becoming the dominant (acidifying and eutrophying) air pollutant, there is a need for better integration of nitrogen dynamics in dynamic models.

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