U.S. North American Carbon Program (NACP) Investigators Meeting Colorado Springs, CO

1. The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR)U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2 U.S. North American Carbon Program (NACP) Investigators Meeting Colorado Springs, CO January 22, 2007 Anthony King Oak Ridge National Laboratory For the SOCCR Coordinating Team Anthony King (ORNL) Lisa Dilling (U.Colo/NCAR) David Fairman (CBI) Richard “Skee” Houghton (WHRC) Gregg Marland (ORNL) Adam Rose (USC) Tom Wilbanks (ORNL) Greg Zimmerman (ORNL)

2. The SOCCR community • Authors • Stakeholders • SOCCR Coordinating Team • SOCCR Agency Executive Committee • Climate Change Science Program

3. Outline of the Presentation • Purpose of the SOCCR • Process of producing the SOCCR • Product • Structure of the report • Key findings and highlights • Data gaps and uncertainties • Prospectus vis-à-vis the NACP

4. The purpose of the SOCCR is … • To summarize scientific knowledge about carbon cycle properties and changes for North America. • To provide scientific information for decision support and policy formulation concerning carbon.

5. SOCCR Science Questions • What are the primary carbon sources and sinks in North America, and how are they changing? • How do North American carbon sources and sinks relate to the global carbon cycle? • How are North American carbon sources and sinks affected by present and anticipated future changes in human activities and climate? • What are the primary uncertainties in the North American carbon budget, and what factors affect carbon budget uncertainties and information quality? • What scientific information is most needed to support carbon management and climate policy decisions?

6. SOCCR Approach • Integrated content– not just “natural” carbon cycle • Community document- written by leading scientific experts (90 or more involved) • Includes authors from Mexico and Canada (North American focus) • Stakeholders incorporated very early on and at points where input can “make a difference” • Provide opportunity for direct author/stakeholder interaction; but responsibility for content lies with authors • Document intended for decision maker audience (thinking beyond technical accuracy to presentation and style) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/

7. SOCCR SAP 2.2 Milestones 2004 Sept.-October 2004: Initial Stakeholder Assessment, review of chapter outline November 15-16, 2004: First stakeholder workshop, Washington D.C. November-December 2004: revised outline posted for comment on SOCCR website 2005 January 2005: draft Prospectus submitted to CCSP February 2–March 7, 2005: publiccomment on draft CCSP 2.2 Prospectus May 16-17, 2005: First lead chapter authors workshop, Atlanta GA October 2005: “Zero”-order draft completed October 24-25, 2005: Joint stakeholder and author workshop, Arlington VA May 2006: Draft 1 submitted for technical review 2006 September 1, 2006: Delivered revised Draft 2 for 45-day public review October 10, 2006: Third stakeholder workshop, Washington DC November 3, 2006: Public comment period closes November-December 2006: Authors’ revision and response to public comments 2007 January 31, 2007: Delivery of Draft 3 to AEC and CCSP March 2007: Release of final report following CCSP and NSTC review http://cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/

8. Stakeholder Assessment • Methodology • Interviews with 30 stakeholders, chosen from previous involvement, in Oct. 2004 • Provided draft SOCCR outline before interviews • Drafted not-for-attribution report, circulated to interviewees for comment, revised and finalized • Feedback on SOCCR content, process and product • Science: how carbon cycle works, main sources and sinks, areas of uncertainty (esp. sinks) • Policy: assess mitigation options, esp. in energy sector, land management • SOCCR process and product: critical need for objectivity (candidate authors), relevance, accessibility for non-scientist stakeholders http://cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/

9. Workshop Feedback • First workshop: Major revision of outline • Feedback on making report relevant to stakeholders, emphasize important components, have both synthetic and sector-specific information, questions for part I • Second workshop: Responding to “0th” draft • Feedback on reducing length, improving clarity, develop common elements (parts II and III) • Third workshop: Responding to public (2nd) draft • Feedback on process, stakeholder involvement, content discussion especially of chapter 4, discussion of dissemination strategies http://cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/

10. The Design of the SOCCR The design of the SOCCR as a document started with an outline in the original proposal but evolved significantly based on input from the First Stakeholders Workshop in November 2004, and the First Authors workshop in May 2005. There are three parts to the SOCCR, prefaced by an Executive Summary: Part I: The Carbon Cycle in North America Part II: Energy, Industry and Waste Management Activities Part III: Land and Water Systems

11. Part I: The Carbon Cycle in North America • Chapter 1. What is the Carbon Cycle and Why Do We Care? • SOCCR Coordinating Team • Chapter 2. The Carbon Cycle of North America in a Global Context • Chris Field (Coordinating Lead), Burke Hales, Jorge Sarmiento • Chapter 3. The North American Carbon Budget Past and Present? • Steve Pacala (Coordinating Lead), Rich Birdsey, Scott Bridgham, Rich Conant, Ken Davis, Burke Hales, Richard Houghton, Jen Jenkins, Mark Johnston, Gregg Marland, and Keith Paustian • Chapter 4. What are the Options That Could Significantly Affect the Carbon Cycle? • Erik Haites (Coordinating Lead), Ken Caldeira, Patricia Romero Lankao, Adam Rose, Tom Wilbanks • Chapter 5. How Can We Improve the Usefulness of Carbon Science for Decision-Making? • Lisa Dilling and Ron Mitchell (Coordinating Leads), David Fairman

12. Part II: Energy, Industry and Waste Management Activities • Overview of Part II: Energy, Industry, and Waste Management Activities: An Introduction to CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels • -- Gregg Marland • Chapter 6: Energy Extraction and Conversion • -- Thomas Wilbanks • Chapter 7: Transportation • -- David Greene • Chapter 8: Industry and Waste Management • --John Nyboer • Chapter 9: Buildings • -- James McMahon

13. Part III: Land and Water Systems • Overview of Part III: The Carbon Cycle in Land and Water Systems • Richard (Skee) Houghton • Chapter 10. Agriculture and Grazing Lands • Rich Conant and Keith Paustian • Chapter 11. North American Forests • Richard Birdsey, Jennifer Jenkins, Mark Johnston and Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald • Chapter 12. Carbon Cycle in the Permafrost Region of North America • Charles Tarnocai • Chapter 13. Wetlands • Scott Bridgham • Chapter 14. Human Settlements and the North American Carbon Cycle • Diane Pataki • Chapter 15. Coastal Oceans • Francisco Chavez and Taro Takahashi

14. Some key findings of the current draft of the SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 • North American carbon budget • Options to manage carbon

15. North America is currently a net source of CO2 (1336 ± 334 Mt C yr-1), with 30% of fossil fuel emissions (1856  464 Mt C yr-1 in 2003) offset by a net terrestrial sink of 520  260 Mt C yr-1.

16. Key findings of the draft SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 • Energy and industrial fossil-fuel emissions are dominated by emissions from the United States (85% in 2003; Canada 9% and Mexico 6%). • The terrestrial sink is primarily associated with regrowing forests in the United States (50%), with woody encroachment the next largest (20%), but highly uncertain contributor. • The future of the North American terrestrial sink is highly uncertain, with the expectation that the forest regrowth contribution will decline clouded by uncertainty in ecosystem response to CO2 and climate.

17. Key findings of the draft SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 • Addressing imbalances in North American carbon budget requires options focused on reducing fossil fuel emissions. • Potential for options focused on enhancing sinks is likely insufficient to deal with magnitude of current imbalance. • Options include efficiency improvement, fuel switching, and technologies such as capture and storage. • Mechanisms likely a mix of voluntary and policy-driven options, locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally. • Demand for information by decision makers will require new thinking and mechanisms in carbon cycle research.

18. North America is currently a net source of CO2 (1336 ± 334 Mt C yr-1), with 30% of fossil fuel emissions (1856  464 Mt C yr-1 in 2003) offset by a net terrestrial sink of 520  260 Mt C yr-1.

19. Future sinks ?

20. Key findings of the draft SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 • … • The terrestrial sink is primarily associated with regrowing forests in the United States (50%), with woody encroachment the next largest (20%), but highly uncertain contributor. • The future of the North American terrestrial sink is highly uncertain, with the expectation that the forest regrowth contribution will decline clouded by uncertainty in ecosystem response to CO2 and climate.

21. Prospectus for synthesis and assessment vis-à-vis the NACP • The first SOCCR is “pre-NACP” • information • Findings • The SOCCR could provide a framework for a post-NACP “re-assessment” • SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 will be released near the time of the IPCC Fourth assessment. The assessments for North America need to be compared. MODIS annual NPP averaged over 2000-2005. Courtesy of Steve Running, U. Montana.

22. The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2 currently in Draft 2; responding to public review; scheduled for release March 2007 cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/ www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/default.htm/