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P R I N C I P L E S O F MACROECONOMICS T E N T H E D I T I O N. CASE FAIR OSTER. Prepared by: Fernando Quijano & Shelly Tefft. 7. Unemployment, Inflation, and Long-Run Growth. CHAPTER OUTLINE. Unemployment Measuring Unemployment Components of the Unemployment Rate

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P R I N C I P L E S O F

MACROECONOMICS

T E N T H E D I T I O N

CASE FAIR OSTER

Prepared by: Fernando Quijano & Shelly Tefft

slide3

7

Unemployment, Inflation, and Long-Run Growth

CHAPTER OUTLINE

Unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

Components of the Unemployment Rate

The Costs of Unemployment

Inflation

The Consumer Price Index

The Costs of Inflation

Long-Run Growth

Output and Productivity Growth

Looking Ahead

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Unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

employedAny person 16 years old or older (1) who works for pay, either for someone else or in his or her own business for 1 or more hours per week, (2) who works without pay for 15 or more hours per week in a family enterprise, or (3) who has a job but has been temporarily absent with or without pay.

unemployedA person 16 years old or older who is not working, is available for work, and has made specific efforts to find work during the previous 4 weeks.

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Unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

not in the labor forceA person who is not looking for work because he or she does not want a job or has given up looking.

labor forceThe number of people employed plus the number of unemployed.

labor force = employed + unemployed

population = labor force + not in labor force

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Unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

unemployment rateThe ratio of the number of people unemployed to the total number of people in the labor force.

labor force participation rateThe ratio of the labor force to the total population 16 years old or older.

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Unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

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Unemployment

Components of the Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rates for Different Demographic Groups

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Unemployment

Components of the Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rates in States and Regions

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Unemployment

Components of the Unemployment Rate

Discouraged-Worker Effects

discouraged-worker effectThe decline in the measured unemployment rate that results when people who want to work but cannot find jobs grow discouraged and stop looking, thus dropping out of the ranks of the unemployed and the labor force.

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E C O N O M I C S I N P R A C T I C E

A Quiet Revolution: Women Join the Labor Force

As women began joining the labor force in greater numbers in the 1970s and 1980s, their wages relative to men’s wages actually fell.

Most economists attribute this decline to the fact that less experienced women were entering the labor force, pointing out the importance of correcting for factors such as experience and education when we analyze labor markets.

If you are interested in learning more about the economic history of American women, read the book Understanding the Gender Gap: An Economic History of American Women by Harvard University economist Claudia Goldin.

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Unemployment

Components of the Unemployment Rate

The Duration of Unemployment

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Unemployment

The Costs of Unemployment

Some Unemployment Is Inevitable

When we consider the various costs of unemployment, it is useful to categorize unemployment into three types:

  • Frictional unemployment
  • Structural unemployment
  • Cyclical unemployment
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Unemployment

The Costs of Unemployment

Frictional, Structural, and Cyclical Unemployment

frictional unemploymentThe portion of unemployment that is due to the normal turnover in the labor market; used to denote short-run job/skill matching problems.

structural unemploymentThe portion of unemployment that is due to changes in the structure of the economy that result in a significant loss of jobs in certain industries.

natural rate of unemployment The unemployment rate that occurs as a normal part of the functioning of the economy. Sometimes taken as the sum of frictional unemployment rate and structural unemployment rate.

cyclical unemploymentUnemployment that is above frictional plus structural unemployment.

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Unemployment

The Costs of Unemployment

Social Consequences

The costs of unemployment are neither evenly distributed across the population nor easily quantified.

The social consequences of the Depression of the 1930s are perhaps the hardest to comprehend. Few emerged from this period unscathed.

At the bottom were the poor and the fully unemployed, about 25 percent of the labor force. Even those who kept their jobs found themselves working part-time.

Many people lost all or part of their savings as the stock market crashed and thousands of banks failed.

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Inflation

The Consumer Price Index

consumer price index (CPI) A price index computed each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics using a bundle that is meant to represent the “market basket” purchased monthly by the typical urban consumer.

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Inflation

The Consumer Price Index

▲ FIGURE 7.1 The CPI Market Basket

The CPI market basket shows how a typical consumer divides his or her money among various goods and services.

Most of a consumer’s money goes toward housing, transportation, and food and beverages.

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Inflation

The Consumer Price Index

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Inflation

The Consumer Price Index

producer price indexes (PPIs)Measures of prices that producers receive for products at all stages in the production process.

The indexes are calculated separately for various stages in the production process.

The three main categories are finished goods, intermediate materials, and crude materials, although there are subcategories within each of these categories.

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Inflation

The Costs of Inflation

During inflations, most prices—including input prices like wages—tend to rise together, and input prices determine both the incomes of workers and the incomes of owners of capital and land.

So inflation by itself does not necessarily reduce ones purchasing power.

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E C O N O M I C S I N P R A C T I C E

The Politics of Cost-of-Living Adjustments

In the last few years many state governments in the United States have begun to see the costs associated with retiring state workers escalate as the number of retirees has grown.

For many of these public-sector retirees, pensions have been tied to the cost of living.

No Cost-of-Living Increase for State Retirees in July

The Baltimore Sun

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Inflation

The Costs of Inflation

Inflation May Change the Distribution of Income

real interest rateThe difference between the interest rate on a loan and the inflation rate.

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Inflation

The Costs of Inflation

Administrative Costs and Inefficiencies

There may be costs associated even with anticipated inflation. One is the administrative cost associated with simply keeping up.

Public Enemy Number One?

Economists have debated the seriousness of the costs of inflation for decades.

No matter what the real economic cost of inflation, people do not like it.

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Long-Run Growth

output growthThe growth rate of the output of the entire economy.

per-capita output growthThe growth rate of output per person in the economy.

productivity growthThe growth rate of output per worker.

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Long-Run Growth

Output and Productivity Growth

▲ FIGURE 7.2 Output per Worker Hour (Productivity), 1952 I–2010 I

Productivity grew much faster in the 1950s and 1960s than since.

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Long-Run Growth

Output and Productivity Growth

▲ FIGURE 7.3 Capital per Worker, 1952 I–2010 I

Capital per worker grew until about 1980 and then leveled off somewhat.

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Looking Ahead

This ends our introduction to the basic concepts and problems of macroeconomics.

The first chapter of this part introduced the field; the second chapter discussed the measurement of national product and national income; and this chapter discussed unemployment, inflation, and long-run growth.

We are now ready to begin the analysis of how the macroeconomy works.

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producer price indexes (PPIs)

  • productivity growth
  • real interest rate
  • structural unemployment
  • unemployed
  • unemployment rate
  • labor force = employed + unemployed
  • 2. population = labor force + not in labor force
  • 3.
  • 4.

R E V I E W T E R M S A N D C O N C E P T S

consumer price index (CPI)

cyclical unemployment

discouraged-worker effect

employed

frictional unemployment

labor force

labor force participation rate

natural rate of unemployment

not in the labor force

output growth

per-capita output growth