SPICOSA Science and Policy Integration for COastal System Assesment <Lecturer’s name here>

1. SPICOSA Science and Policy Integration for COastal System Assesment <Lecturer’s name here>

2. SPICOSA – using the Systems Approach in the Coastal Zone

3. Course structure • Coastal zones and the system approach • An overview of SPICOSA • Working with stakeholders • Identifying problems and solutions • Causal chains, the SPICOSA loop • Models, conceptual and functional • Selecting and using scenarios • Reporting findings

4. Course structure • Coastal zones and the system approach • An overview of SPICOSA • Working with stakeholders • Identifying problems and solutions • Causal chains, the SPICOSA loop • Models, conceptual and functional • Selecting and using scenarios • Reporting findings

5. The SPICOSA loop

6. Example: <Insert site name and issue> INSERT PICTURE

7. Human Activity <insert example of HA> <Insert example> is an Human Activity (HA). The term HA refers to human intervention in the function and structure of natural systems. INSERT PICTURE

8. Forcing <insert example> Physical pressure is a force per unit area. `Nutrient loading' implies an increase in nutrients over what was a `normal' level. INSERT PICTURE

9. System state <insert example> where `State' or `Status' represent the situation at a specific time. INSERT PICTURE

10. Response <insert example> A forced rate of change in the ecosystem. Eutrophication would be seen as part of this. INSERT PICTURE

11. Impact <insert example> SPICOSA takes `Impact' as the end-result in a cause-&-effect chain, with direct consequences for ecosystem users, such as those involving harm to a fishery from deep-water anoxia. INSERT PICTURE

12. Policy change <insert example> SPICOSA does not pre-suppose what type of Policy decision should be made. It provides scenarios to show policy makers what will occur, given certain management choices. INSERT PICTURE

13. The SPICOSA loop

14. Course structure • Coastal zones and the system approach • An overview of SPICOSA • Working with stakeholders • Identifying problems and solutions • Causal chains, the SPICOSA loop • Models, conceptual and functional • Selecting and using scenarios • Reporting findings

15. Models • A tool to represent the real world in a way that can be used to understand how the system works and make forecasts. • Can be used to give an idea of the effect of different management options. • Models may be conceptual, mathematical or numerical.

16. Types of models • Conceptual Model- a pictorial or verbal description of selected features of a system, usually made inductively and capable of qualitative predictions by deduction • Mathematical Model- a formal mathematical representation of selected features of a system • Numerical Model- a tool based on a mathematical model; a transformation machine that takes data from an input and converts it to a prognostic or diagnostic output; often implemented as, or using, a computer program.

17. Data requirements • What metric will you use for each variable? • Clear link with your issue of interest. • Time series • Common collection method throughout • Apples with apples • Same time steps • Modelled data FAO North Sea fertilizer use data http://faostat.fao.org

18. Sewage discharge X 1.1 X 2 ? X 2 X 1.6 X 7 Sensitivity Calibration Verification   Nitrate fertiliser use Nitrate concentration Do input parameters balance correctly? Make the model realistic Is the response logical?

19. Build ESEcomponent models A set of simple ESE models Associated with fishereies

20. Linking variables A variable which can be linked to components of components to allow them to interact

21. Modelling – ESE componentsA simple example building a linked ESE model

22. Conceptual models Rain and riverine inputs Evaporation Water level Industry Pollution level Tourism € Weir Hydroelectricity Irrigation Water treatment

23. Water levels in the Bay • Influence: • Rainfall • Evaporation - 0.003 m-3/day. • Water loss from the weirs in the barrage which takes 100000m3 water/day when the bay level is greater than 500 000 000 m3.

25. Pollution inputs • Industry – 200 businesses in the area abstract water from the bay as coolant; these return with heavy metals at a rate of 0.0001 Kg/day. • Pollution amount is reduced by outflow from the weir into the Bristol Channel at concentration level. • Amount not reduced by evaporation.

27. Economics • The port authority is paid £0.15per factory/dayabstracting coolant from the bay. • Tourists visit the Bay and spend an average of £20 a day. • Tourists will only come if the concentration of heavy metals is below 3 x 10-7 kgm-3 where signs will be posted on the beaches warning of pollution. • Money is available to develop a treatment plant to remove heavy metals at a cost of £0.01per m3 of water.

29. Model created for <case study name> Rain and riverine inputs Evaporation Water level INSERT MODEL DIAGRAM Industry Pollution level Tourism € Weir Hydroelectricity Irrigation Water treatment

30. Exercise 3 Conceptual model

31. Tomorrow: Scenarios and reporting to stakeholders