COLORADO WATER for the21ST CENTURY ACT PROGRESS UPDATE From THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN ROUNDTABLE March 25, 2010 Sterling, CO
Colorado's Water Supply Future South Platte Basin Roundtable Nonconsumptive Needs Assessment Bob Streeter
Why are we developing an NCNA? • Yes, it’s required by statute, but more importantly… • The NCNA will provide an objective, science-based set of tools for BRTs and other stakeholders. • Priority Streams • Flow Quantification • To be used to make informed decisions about future water supply management. For example: • What are the most important streams and rivers for our environment and recreation? • How much water would we need to sustain those values? • What tools and strategies can we use? • How can we develop new water supplies that avoid impacts or provide multi-purpose benefits to priority streams and wetlands?
Statewide Nonconsumptive Needs Assessment Methodology Build Upon Attributes Establish Priorities PRIORITIES I M P L E M E N T A T I O N Areas Where BRTs Choose to Conduct Quantification Site-Specific Quantification QUANTIFICATION Pilot Watershed Flow Evaluation Tool(s)
Products • GIS coverages representing Colorado’s important environmental and recreational attributes • Map of Basin Roundtable prioritized areas and reaches • Results of flow evaluation tools and site-specific instream flow pilot studies • Identification of flow and non-flow related resource management options
CWCB Instream Flow Rights CWCB Natural Lake Levels CWCB water rights where water availability had a role in appropriation Audubon important bird areas CDPHE WQCD 303(d) listed segments Rare Riparian Wetland Vascular Plants Significant Riparian/Wetland Communities Boreal Toad Critical Habitat Ducks Unlimited Projects Greenback Cutthroat Trout Waterfowl Hunting/Habitat Parcels Ducks Unlimited Focus Areas White Water Parks Wild and Scenic Reaches Gold Medal Trout Streams Gold Medal Trout Lakes Recreational In-Channel Diversions Rafting and Kayak reaches (flatwater and whitewater) High Recreation Corridors Nationwide Rivers Inventory Additional Wilderness Area Waters Plains and Northern Leopard Frog Preble’s Jumping Mouse River Otter Yellow Mud Turtle Common Garter Snake Other Threatened and Endangered Fish Species Initial Attributes Considered
South Platte Basin Attribute Categorization Environmental Recreational State Endangered, Threatened and Species of Concern Special Value Waters Whitewater and Flatwater Boating Important Fishing High Recreation Corridors Rare Plants and Significant Plant Communities Waterfowl Habitat and Recreation
Why are we here? • PLAN Upfront • Plan for multi-objective projects upfront when an area includes nonconsumptive needs • Avoid long National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and litigation processes (be a useful guide for water supply planning up front), • Avoiding Endangered Species Act “train wrecks” (help plan to prevent species of special concern from becoming federally listed), • Point to win/win opportunities for future multi-objective projects, and • Help identify where future conflicts may occur • Cultural, Ethical, and Aesthetic Values • Economics
Next Steps • Quantification of water needs • Implementation of projects to sustain and improve recreational and environmental attributes
Colorado's Water Supply Future South Platte Basin Roundtable Consumptive Needs Assessment Joe Frank
Colorado Water for the 21st Century ActConsumptive Needs Assessment • Basin Roundtables • “Develop a basin-wide consumptive and non-consumptive water supply needs assessment.” • Consumptive Needs: Municipal, industrial and agricultural • Non-consumptive Needs: Environmental and recreational
South Platte Basin Roundtable • Three-Part Approach to Consumptive Needs Assessment: 1. 2004 Statewide Water Supply Initiative (SWSI), Phase 1. • Adopted as an interim needs assessment 2. Detailed analysis of five key areas 3. Assessments based on 2050 demands
Part 1: Statewide Water Supply Initiative, Phase 1 • Findings based on 2030 demands: • Municipal and Industrial (M&I) demands projected to increase statewide by 630,000 acre-feet (AF). • M&I demands in the South Platte Basin Roundtable area were projected to increase by 200,000 AF. • Optimistic projections by local M&I providers indicate the ability to meet 80% of the increased demand.
Part 1: Statewide Water Supply Initiative, Phase 1 • Findings, cont’d • The gap or shortage indentified for 2030: • Statewide: 118,000 AF • South Platte Basin Roundtable: 28,000 AF • Overall South Platte: 90,600 AF • Note: One acre-foot is a volume of water one foot deep over one acre of area. One acre-foot is also 325,851 gallons.
Part 1: Statewide Water Supply Initiative, Phase 1 • 2030 Agricultural Demands for the South Platte Basin: - 2000 Irrigated Land 1,027,000 acres Water Deficit 257,000 ac-ft* - 2030 Irrigated Land 850,000 acres Water Deficit 210,000 ac-ft* Note that the total irrigated acres are projected to decrease by 2030. * Consumptive use numbers.
Part 2: Five Key Areas • The consumptive needs assessment involves the detailed analysis of Five Key Areas: 1.Competition for the same water supply 2. Identification of any unappropriated water 3. Current and historical river administration 4. Increasing use of wholly consumable effluent 5. Water conservation plans by providers
Part 2: Five Key AreasConclusions 1. There is significant competition for the same water supplies including competition from the Denver Metro Area 2. There is very little un-appropriated water available 3. There will be increased frequency and duration of senior calls on the river 4. Increase reuse of consumable effluent will result in less water in the South Platte River 5. Water conservation will help reduce future water demands but will not alone be sufficient to meet future demands
Part 3: Consumptive Needs Assessment • Approach to the Needs Assessment: • Projection of 2050 Agricultural Demands • 2050 Municipal and Industrial Demands Projected Statewide • Available Water Supply • Calculation of the 2050 Projected Gap or Shortage
Part 3: Consumptive Needs Assessment • 2030 Projected Agricultural Demands: • 2005 irrigated acres were used as a base line for projecting future Agricultural water needs. • Due to the high decree of uncertainty in estimating the 2050 irrigated acreage the decision was made by the Roundtable to use updated 2030 acreage estimates from SWSI Phase 1.
2030 Projected Agricultural Demands, cont’d • 2005:Irrigated Land 840,000 acres Water Deficit 210,000 AF* • 2030: Irrigated Land 684,000 -- 797,000 acres Water Deficit 171,000 -- 198,000 AF* • The current and projected Agricultural water shortage in the overall basin: • 200,000 acre-feet of consumptive use* • 364,000 acre-feet of actual diversion • Note: That the irrigated acres have decreased 70,000 acres from 2001 to 2005.
Part 3: Consumptive Needs AssessmentMunicipal and Industrial Projections2050 Population Estimates
2050 Population Estimates, cont’d Data Source: Colorado Water Conservation Board “State of Colorado 2050 Municipal and Industrial Water Use Projections.”
Part 3: Consumptive Needs Assessment2050 M&I Water Demand Note: For the Medium 2050 Demand the State will need another 1,100,000 AF of water.
2050 M&I Water Demand, cont’d *The 2008 demand reflects a 13% decrease from the 2000 demand. This reduction is due to current conservations efforts.
2050 M&I Water Demand, cont’d • 2050 Medium Demand for the South Platte Basin Roundtable area will need another 247,000 AF of water for M&I • 2050 Medium Demand for Denver Metro area will need another 305,000 AF for M&I • Compare this to the following: • C-BT Project Annual Yield: 213,000 AF • Poudre River Annual Yield: 298,000 AF • We will need another C-BT Project and another Poudre River.
SWSI: South Platte Basin and Metro 2050 new demand • South Metro • Denver Metro • Northern • Upper Mountain • Lower Platte • South Metro Counties Rueter-Hess • ECCV Northern • Non-trib GW • Denver Metro Counties • Aurora Prairie Waters • Thornton Poudre Pipeline • Ag Transfers • Gravel Lakes • Northern Counties CBT acquisitions, ag transfers and local storage 552,000 AF new demand in 2050 (mid range) • Moffat Firming • Windy Gap Firming • NISP • Halligan-Seaman
South Platte Basin RoundtableMajor Identified Projects & Processes • Identified Projects and Processes (IP&Ps) • Northern Area 146,500 AF • Upper Mountain 16,500 AF • Lower River 8,900 AF • High Plains 800 AF • TOTAL 172,700 AF
South Platte Basin RoundtableMajor Identified Projects & Processes • Northern Area: Annual Yield Windy Gap Firming 30,000 AF Northern Integrated Supply Plan 40,000 AF Halligan-Seaman Reservoir Projects 20,000 AF TOTAL 90,000 AF These projects are currently in the permitting process and do not have the necessary permits to move forward.
Meeting the 2050 M&I Basin Demand • South Platte (excludes Denver Metro Area) Gap Calculation (all values in 1000 ac-ft)
Meeting the 2050 M&I Basin Demand • South Platte and Denver Metro Area Combined Gap Calculation (all values in 1000 ac-ft)
Meeting the 2050 M&I Basin Demand • The amount of additional future water supply depends on the rate of success of the IP&P’s and which population scenario happens. • The Roundtable looked at supply numbers based on 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% success rate of the IP&P’s.
Mid-Range Hypothetical Example • Assume the IP&P’s are 50% successful and assume 2050 medium-range population. • Gap (i.e.: the shortage) to meet in the South Platte Basin Roundtable is 160,000 AF • Gap to meet in Denver Metro area is 233,000 AF (393,000 AF total for South Platte) • The statewide gap at 50/50 is approximately 800,000 AF.
2050 Water Needs High 2050 Water Needs Medium 2050 Water Needs Low IPPs if 50% Successful Existing Supplies
South Platte Basin RoundtableCombined M&I and Agricultural Demand • If 50% of IP&P’s are successful, the mid-range gap in 2050 due to M&I and agricultural shortages in the South Platte Basin Roundtable area is estimated to be 360,000 AF* (593,000 AF* for overall Basin) *Consumptive use
Conclusions of the Roundtable • The 2050 water supply gap in the Basin is large and likely growing. • The future water supply gap in the Basin is an urgent problem that must be addressed with all due speed. • Efficient use of all existing water supplies within the Basin is already happening and will increase in the future • Large scale dry-up of irrigated agriculture will cause significant economic damage to the Basin and the State. • The Basin and the State must proceed with a sense of urgency to evaluate and develop all potential water supply options.
Colorado's Water Supply Future State Wide Perspective – Path Forward Eric Hecox
Objectives 1) Current Planning Activities 2) On-Going Technical Support of Needs Assessment
Draft Reports • State of Colorado 2050 Municipal and Industrial Water Use Projections • Nonconsumptive Needs Assessment Priorities Mapping • Watershed Flow Evaluation Tool Pilot Study for Roaring Fork and Fountain Creek Watersheds and Site-Specific Quantification Pilot Study for Roaring Fork Watershed • Evaluation of Water Supply Strategies To access the reports visit: http://cwcb.state.co.us/IWMD/COsWaterSupplyFuture/
Key Findings • Colorado’s population will nearly double by 2050 requiring between 830,000 and1.7 million acre-feet of additional water to meet M&I needs • Environmental and recreational water needs have been identified statewide. Identifying projects and methods to meet those needs will continue to be a priority • In order to meet these consumptive and nonconsumptive needs, Colorado will rely on a mix of conservation, agricultural transfers, and new water supply development • Meeting Colorado’s consumptive and nonconsumptive needs will require substantial investment. For example, a new water supply project yielding 250,000 acre-feet will cost between $7.5 to $10 billion. This exceeds previous cost projections.
2050 Water Needs High 2050 Water Needs Medium 2050 Water Needs Low IPPs if 100% Successful Existing Supplies
2050 Water Needs High 2050 Water Needs Medium 2050 Water Needs Low IPPs if 50% Successful Existing Supplies
2050 Water Needs High 2050 Water Needs Medium 2050 Water Needs Low IPPs if 50% Successful Reduction in Existing Supplies Due to Climate Change Existing Supplies Reduction in Existing Supplies Due to Loss of Groundwater