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Nancy Beller-Simms March 10, 2004

Climate Forecasts in Decision Making: Perspectives from NOAA’s Human Dimensions of Global Change Research Program. Nancy Beller-Simms March 10, 2004. Today’s Presentation. Goals for Talk Background of the Program Discussion of Specific Projects Future work. Goals for Presentation.

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Nancy Beller-Simms March 10, 2004

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  1. Climate Forecasts in Decision Making: Perspectives from NOAA’s Human Dimensions of Global Change Research Program Nancy Beller-Simms March 10, 2004

  2. Today’s Presentation Goals for Talk Background of the Program Discussion of Specific Projects Future work

  3. Goals for Presentation Introduction to Program Highlight Social Science Aspect of Program Foster Future Working Opportunities

  4. NOAA/Human Dimensions of Global Change Research • Goal: to advance our understanding of human response to and planning for climate variability in the context of improved scientific information • The program supports investigations of: • how decision makers process new information about climate; • how they decide to change their practices in the context of improved scientific information; and • whom these changed decisions affect.

  5. HDGCR Program Structure • Grants Program (i.e., NSF-style) • Call for Proposals • Competitive, Peer-reviewed • External Mail Review • Panel Review • External Programmatic Review • e.g., C&GC Panel, periodic PI Meetings • Science Planning • e.g., National Academy of Sciences, CCRI/ • USGCRP

  6. Sector Projects have mainly focused on • Agriculture • Water Management • Fisheries • Rangeland Management • Drought Policies • Disease Outbreaks • Forestry • Energy

  7. Geographic Region

  8. Scale of Project Focus Spatial Extent Temporal Global • Primarily short-term • climate variability. • Beginning long-term • climate change. State/Regional Intermediaries of Information Community Intracommunity Intrahousehold

  9. Ethnographic • Surveys • Focus groups • In-depth interviews Methodology • Human Ecology • Political • Economic • Ecological • Vulnerability mapping • Surveys • GIS mapping • Bio-economic modeling • Fisheries modeling • Crop-economic modeling • Trade simulation • Decision models/mapping • Interviews • Institutional analysis

  10. Research & Program Challenges • SCIENCE • Physical and social science integration • Temporal and spatial scales • Incorporating non-academic knowledge • Evaluation over long time horizons • INSTITUTIONAL • Performance Measures (short time frame vs. long term research investments)

  11. Examples of Specific Projects Water Management Drought Natural Hazard Fisheries Urban Preparations for Climate Change

  12. NOAA/HDGCR Water Management Projects Study Locations:Recently funded: Colorado, Arizona/Mexico border, Oklahoma, Washington, New Mexico, Utah, Native American tribal lands, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Brazil & Chile Type of Water Management Jurisdictions Studied: Small Community Water Systems (e.g. in Pennsylvania) to broader river basins (e.g., Arkansas and South Platte)

  13. Partners:International (e.g., UNESCO-HELP); National (e.g., NOAA/ GEWEX/GAPP & USDA); State (e.g., Colorado Water Conservation Board); Regional (e.g., Middle Rio Grande Water Conservancy District); Local (e.g., Pueblo of Zuni); and stakeholders (e.g., farmers) Methodologies:Combination of social and natural science methodologies (e.g., obtaining broader stakeholder input from bi-national workshops, climate hydrology water demand models, in-depth interviews) Emerging Needs:Synthesis of findings from studies followed by discussions of next directions

  14. An Exploratory Assessment of the Potential for Improved Water Resource Management by Increased Use of Climate Information in three Western States and Selected Tribes (FY’99); Climate Informed Water Bank (FY ’03) Lead PIs:Charles Howe and John Wiener (University of Colorado) Methodology:Climate-hydrology-water demand model of the South Platte to experiment w/ alternative forms of water bank & adaptive strategies; Interviews with water managers at all levels from ditch managers to the Bureau of Reclamation, Corps of Engineers and State Engineer offices.

  15. Partners/Clients: • FEDERAL: Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, USDA Extension Service. STATE: Colorado Water Conservation Board, State & Division Engineer Offices. REGIONAL: Native Am. Govts. & water/agric departments, Southeastern Colorado, Middle Rio Grande, & Lower Arkansas Water Conservancy Districts, Upper Colorado River Commission, Natural Resources Conservation Service. • LOCAL: Individual ditch companies. • Contributions: • Detailed decision calendar. • Recommendations and results in reformatted info and clearer explanation of existing website info, also links to other sources of requested climate info. Added explanatory materials to climate data sets; • Provided info to water bank administrator on low level of transactions and other results; • Extensive consultation with State Engineer Office on technical matters of the water bank that led to more efficient bank practices such as the more geographically more extensive “dry year lease-out” type of contract.

  16. Provide for late Summer/early Fall irrigation while maintaining target flows Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water until February snowpack data Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall release decisions Winter releases based on Jan/Feb snowpack data Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release decisions Peak Flow Augmentation fill curve Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation planning Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation Peak Flow Augmentation releases Plan releases for Summer irrigation & hydropower Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation & hydropower release decisions Provide for Summer irrigation & hydropower needs while maintaining target flows Reservoir Management Decision Calendar Water Year Planning Next Water Year Planning Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Planning Processes Operational Issues Climate and Weather Forecasts Andrea J. Ray, Robert S. Webb, John D. Wiener, 2001 Photos: US Bureau of Reclamation, NOAA-CIRES Western Water Assessment

  17. Use and Usefulness: A Comparative Study of Seasonal Climate Forecasting - Systems in Drought-affected Regions of Latin America PIs: T Finan, MC Lemos, R Fox, A Leon and D Nelson proasne.net/ drought_1998.JPG

  18. Reducing the Negative Consequences of Climate Variability through the use of Forecasts and Vulnerability Analysis in Cities: The Case of Tijuana, Mexico PI: Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez, University of California, Santa Cruz Co-PIs: Lina Ojeda and Nora Bringas, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Cecilia Conde, UNAM

  19. Climatic Variations and the International Management of the North American Pacific Salmon Fishery: A Game Theoretic Perspective K. Miller and R. McKelvey ESIG/NCAR

  20. Mathematical game model developed to simulate negotiation patterns, changes in fish stock, and the effects of scientific information Results provided to policy makers & stakeholders in region Used by UN Food & Agriculture Organization at international meeting on management of shared fish stocks Results used as state-of-the-art advice for future talks on shared fishery regimes Material to be used in further development of Law of the Sea regarding fisheries • Sampling of Factors • Included in Model • Fish characteristics (spawning stock, size of offspring, location of fishing grounds, etc.) • Environmental factors (including climatic regime shifts) • Cooperative and competitive payoffs to players • Quality and accessibility of information Salmon spawned in one area, harvested in another Motivation for study: Aggressive harvesting led to breakdown of cooperation between US and Canada “The report . . . helps to provide a context for the work products that [NMFS] provides [to] the [Pacific Salmon] Commission. Insight gained from this analysis should help to facilitate [future] negotiations [between the U.S. and Canada].” -Robert Kope (team leader of the Salmon Harvest Group, Northwest Fisheries Science Center)

  21. Climate Change Information for Urban Policy and Decision Making PI: Roberta Balstad Miller (CIESIN, Columbia University) Co PIs:W. Christopher Lenhardt, CIESIN/Columbia University, Robert Downs, CIESIN/Columbia University, William Solecki, Montclair State University, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA

  22. Future Adaptation/coping strategies Integration of program with other programs (RISA, USDA?, GAPP, CLIVAR) Determining gaps and next steps

  23. For further information contact: Nancy Beller-Simms Program Manager 301-427-2089 x180 Photo by Corinne Valdivia nancy.beller-simms@noaa.gov http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/csi/econhd/index.htm

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