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Impact of Sea Surface Temperature on Hurricane Frequency

This study explores the correlation between sea surface temperature and hurricane frequency over the past 100 years, highlighting increases in SST and hurricane intensity. Analyzing data from NOAA, the research examines seasonal variations and the evolving relationship using statistical techniques. While direct links are inconclusive, indirect effects suggest a potential influence of SST on hurricane activity.

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Impact of Sea Surface Temperature on Hurricane Frequency

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  1. Hurricane Frequency and Sea Surface Temperature EAS 4803 ShelizaBhanjee

  2. Background • Hurricane formation is dependent on • Sea surface temperature • Vertical wind shear • Sea level pressure • Latent heat flux • Hurricanes can form when sea surface temperatures reach 26.5°C

  3. Over the past 100 years, increase in SST (~0.3°C) • Also increase in hurricane frequency and intensity • Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the past 35 years have doubled • However, technology has also improved • Better data collection methods Curry et al., 2005

  4. Data • Monthly average Tropical N Atlantic SST data • Number of hurricanes per month (frequency) • 1948-2004 • Obtained from NOAA • Climate Indices: Monthly Atmospheric and Ocean Time Series • Regression and time series analysis

  5. Data

  6. Correlation and Regression Analysis Low correlation, noisy data

  7. Periodograms • Seasonal variation with hurricane frequency • Highly variable temperature across years, but steady increase (1970s)

  8. Cross Spectral Analysis • As years increase, relationship strengthens • Large dip in correlation around 1953

  9. Coherence • Low correlation • Variable at first, then stabilizes

  10. Conclusions • No strong, direct relationship shown across all statistical techniques • Although sea surface temperatures may not directly affect hurricane frequency, might have indirect effect • Short data time period- maybe long term SST /frequency relationship is better • Measuring techniques not uniform until recently

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