1 / 10

Hurricane Frequency and Sea Surface Temperature

Hurricane Frequency and Sea Surface Temperature . EAS 4803 Sheliza Bhanjee. Background. Hurricane formation is dependent on Sea surface temperature Vertical wind shear Sea level pressure Latent heat flux Hurricanes can form when sea surface temperatures reach 26.5°C.

augustus
Download Presentation

Hurricane Frequency and Sea Surface Temperature

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Hurricane Frequency and Sea Surface Temperature EAS 4803 ShelizaBhanjee

  2. Background • Hurricane formation is dependent on • Sea surface temperature • Vertical wind shear • Sea level pressure • Latent heat flux • Hurricanes can form when sea surface temperatures reach 26.5°C

  3. Over the past 100 years, increase in SST (~0.3°C) • Also increase in hurricane frequency and intensity • Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the past 35 years have doubled • However, technology has also improved • Better data collection methods Curry et al., 2005

  4. Data • Monthly average Tropical N Atlantic SST data • Number of hurricanes per month (frequency) • 1948-2004 • Obtained from NOAA • Climate Indices: Monthly Atmospheric and Ocean Time Series • Regression and time series analysis

  5. Data

  6. Correlation and Regression Analysis Low correlation, noisy data

  7. Periodograms • Seasonal variation with hurricane frequency • Highly variable temperature across years, but steady increase (1970s)

  8. Cross Spectral Analysis • As years increase, relationship strengthens • Large dip in correlation around 1953

  9. Coherence • Low correlation • Variable at first, then stabilizes

  10. Conclusions • No strong, direct relationship shown across all statistical techniques • Although sea surface temperatures may not directly affect hurricane frequency, might have indirect effect • Short data time period- maybe long term SST /frequency relationship is better • Measuring techniques not uniform until recently

More Related