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Simulation

Simulation. Technique for conducting experiments with a computer on a model of a management system Frequently used DSS tool. Major Characteristics of Simulation. Imitates reality and capture its richness Technique for conducting experiments Descriptive, not normative tool

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Simulation

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  1. Simulation • Technique for conducting experiments with a computer on a model of a management system • Frequently used DSS tool

  2. Major Characteristics of Simulation • Imitates reality and capture its richness • Technique for conducting experiments • Descriptive, not normative tool • Often to solve very complex, risky problems

  3. Advantages of Simulation 1. Theory is straightforward 2. Time compression 3. Descriptive, not normative 4. MSS builder interfaces with manager to gain intimate knowledge of the problem 5. Model is built from the manager's perspective 6. Manager needs no generalized understanding. Each component represents a real problem component (More)

  4. 7. Wide variation in problem types 8. Can experiment with different variables 9. Allows for real-life problem complexities 10. Easy to obtain many performance measures directly 11. Frequently the only DSS modeling tool for nonstructured problems 12. Monte Carlo add-in spreadsheet packages (@Risk)

  5. Limitations of Simulation 1. Cannot guarantee an optimal solution 2. Slow and costly construction process 3. Cannot transfer solutions and inferences to solve other problems 4. So easy to sell to managers, may miss analytical solutions 5. Software is not so user friendly

  6. Simulation Methodology Model real system and conduct repetitive experiments 1. Define problem 2. Construct simulation model 3. Test and validate model 4. Design experiments 5. Conduct experiments 6. Evaluate results 7. Implement solution

  7. Simulation Types • Probabilistic Simulation • Discrete distributions • Continuous distributions • Probabilistic simulation via Monte Carlo technique • Time dependent versus time independent simulation • Simulation software • Visual simulation • Object-oriented simulation

  8. Visual Spreadsheets • User can visualize models and formulas with influence diagrams • Not cells--symbolic elements

  9. Visual Interactive Modeling (VIS) and Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) • Visual interactive modeling (VIM) Also called • Visual interactive problem solving • Visual interactive modeling • Visual interactive simulation • Use computer graphics to present the impact of different management decisions. • Can integrate with GIS • Users perform sensitivity analysis • Static or a dynamic (animation) systems

  10. Generated Image of Traffic at an Intersection from the Orca Visual Simulation Environment (Courtesy Orca Computer, Inc.)

  11. Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) • Decision makers interact with the simulated model and watch the results over time • Visual interactive models and DSS • Queueing

  12. SUMMARY • Models play a major role in DSS • Models can be static or dynamic • Analysis is under assumed certainty, risk, or uncertainty • Influence diagrams • Spreadsheets • Decision tables and decision trees • Spreadsheet models and results in influence diagrams • Optimization: mathematical programming (More)

  13. Linear programming: economic-based • Heuristic programming • Simulation - more complex situations • Expert Choice • Multidimensional models - OLAP • Quantitative software packages-OLAP (statistical, etc.) • Visual interactive modeling (VIM) • Visual interactive simulation (VIS)

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