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Cambridgeshire’s population

Cambridgeshire’s population. Vicky Head (Research Manager - Demography) Julia Gumy (Senior Research Officer - Population). December 2008. Outline. How do populations change? Historical change (1851-2001) Recent change: 2001-2007 Future change: 2007- 2021

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Cambridgeshire’s population

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  1. Cambridgeshire’s population Vicky Head (Research Manager - Demography) Julia Gumy (Senior Research Officer - Population) December 2008

  2. Outline • How do populations change? • Historical change (1851-2001) • Recent change: 2001-2007 • Future change: 2007- 2021 • Sources and use of population data

  3. POPULATION CHANGE = CHANGES INSTITUTIONAL POP NATURAL CHANGE + NET MIGRATION + How do populations change? Births – Deaths = natural change In-migration – Out-migration = net migration 2007 2001

  4. Period of rapid growth Migration Stabilisation Period of growth Natural change & migration Natural change Historical change: 1801-2001 Source: Census

  5. Structure of the population 1851 Slope = Rate people die or leave the area Age Groups The width of the pyramid base = number of births in the previous five years Source: Vision of Britain

  6. 1931 WWI effect Fewer children Male students and armed forces Source: Vision of Britain

  7. 1951 WWII effect Post war baby boom Source: Vision of Britain

  8. 1971 Post war baby boom Students Source: Vision of Britain

  9. 2001 Baby boomers Source: Vision of Britain

  10. Recent change: 2001-2007 6.3% (34,800) increase from 2001 to 2007

  11. Components of change 73% of the population increase is due to net migration

  12. Net migration

  13. Why migration increases? • Housing growth: dwelling stock increased by 8.2% since 2001

  14. Why migration increases? • Prosperous economy • Employment rates above UK average • Salary levels in Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire are above UK average • Diverse labour market ….among others

  15. Why migration increases? • International migration

  16. Why migration increases? The CCCRG report showed that: • 38,000 overseas people have registered to work in Cambridgeshire since 2001 • 57% are considered to have already emigrated • Around 16,400 might have become resident in Cambridgeshire’s population since 2001 • In 2007 there could be 64,800 non-UK born citizens resident in Cambridgeshire’s population • 11% of Cambridgeshire’s population in 2007 • ONS estimates 71,000 (CI +/- 15,000) non-UK born citizens resident in Cambridgeshire’s population

  17. Why migration increases? • Effects of policy changes • The Workers Registration Scheme fostered international migration from Eastern Europe • The points-based system will reduce international migration flows into the UK

  18. Natural change

  19. Total period fertility rates In 2007: Source: ONS

  20. Life expectancy - Males In 2005 – 2007: Source: ONS

  21. Life expectancy - Females In 2005 – 2007: Source: ONS Women in Cambridgeshire can expect to live 3.9 years longer than men but…. …..men’s life expectancy has improved faster than women’s since 1991

  22. Baby Boomers Students Age structure in 2007 Baby Boomers Students %

  23. 2001 2007 Changes in age structure %

  24. District population change

  25. Future population (2007-2021) 6.3% increase from 2001 to 2007 13.2% (78,000) increase from 2007 to 2021

  26. Components of change

  27. 2001 2007 2021 Changes in age structure %

  28. District population change

  29. Note: • Map shows wards not parishes; • Decline in many rural wards; • Growth in rural wards in Fens and East Cambs; • Growth concentrated in & around Cambridge, in new settlements and in market towns.

  30. Change in Child population: • Declining numbers or very little growth in most areas (national trend) • But increase in towns and major new developments

  31. Change in 65+ population: • Increase everywhere

  32. Implications of a changing age structure • Major new developments will have young age-structures, will be dominated by young couples and families – priority need to provide for children, young people and families • Numbers of children will decline in rural areas and smaller towns – effects of declining school rolls? • Numbers and proportions of older people will increase in most places – but particularly so in rural areas – how do we provide for needs of an ageing population?

  33. Assuming different scenarios • Dwelling led • Structure Plan and Regional Spatial Strategy targets. • Population size and structure needed to create those households and the level of net migration needed to achieve that size of population. • Short-term trend • Average net migration levels 2001-2007 • Illustrative of continuing effects of recent migration and house-building • Zero-net migration • Population change that would occur if total migration into and out of a local authority area was in balance. • No housing growth • Population change that would occur if no new houses were built between 2007 and 2021

  34. Assuming different scenarios 13.2% increase 12.9% increase 4.5% increase 7.5% decrease

  35. Summary • The population has grown steadily since the beginning of the 20th century and is forecast to continue growing • Migration is the main driver of population growth • Population growth has occurred together with housing and economic growth • Cambridgeshire has an ageing population: • The proportion of children and young people is shrinking • The proportion of adults and older people is increasing • A decline in migration or house building would lead to slower population growth than seen in recent years

  36. Sources of population data (1) • The Census • Survey of all persons and households in the country • Takes place every 10 years • Provides extremely detailed information at various geographical levels, from country to output area • Demographic breakdowns (e.g. age, sex), cross-tabulated against socio-economic variables • The Census gives us a robust population estimate – but only every 10 years. • Gives us a baseline for estimating the population in other years…

  37. Sources of population data (2) • CCC Research Group • Monitor population change each year based on local administrative sources • Publish our own ‘mid-year estimates’ of the population, for parishes, wards, districts, county, by age. • Population forecasts • Dwelling led – consistent with planned levels of house building as set out on regional policy • Assume migration is related to availability of dwellings. Assume that provision is made for demand for new houses from existing population. Any excess of housing is available for in-migrants • Forecasts down to ward level, with an age breakdown • Useful for planning purposes

  38. Sources of population data (3) • Office for National Statistics (ONS) • Centrally produced population estimates for all local authorities in the UK; consistent methodology. • ONS’ assessment of population change does not always accord with what we are able to detect ‘on the ground’. • Population projections • Trend-based: assume previous trends continue into future. • Data not available below district level • Useful for official purposes (e.g. finance, bid proposals) or to compare different areas of the country • Use when you need to but use with caution!

  39. For more information: The Research Group RES1203 Shire Hall Castle Hill CB3 0AP Tel: 01223 715300 Email: research.group@cambridgeshire.gov.uk Website: http://www.cambridgeshire.gov.uk/community/population/

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