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Current Economic Tsunami and Its Impact on Singapore in 2009

Current Economic Tsunami and Its Impact on Singapore in 2009

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Current Economic Tsunami and Its Impact on Singapore in 2009

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  1. Current Economic Tsunami and Its Impact on Singapore in 2009 by Hoon Hian Teck Singapore Management University

  2. Outline • Causes • Remedies • Impact on Singapore • Policy measures adopted in Singapore • The Future

  3. Some useful concepts • Bank balance sheet • Liquidity • Insolvency • Bank recapitalization • Output gap • Fiscal policy and monetary policy • Jobs credit

  4. Disproportionate Impact Source: Blanchard (2008)

  5. Complexity Source: Blanchard (2008)

  6. Interconnectedness Source: Blanchard (2008)

  7. Increase in counterparty risk Source: Blanchard (2008)

  8. Tighter bank lending standards Source: Blanchard (2008)

  9. Emerging markets not spared Source: Blanchard (2008)

  10. Confidence plunged Source: Blanchard (2008)

  11. IMF growth forecasts for 2009 Source: Blanchard (2008)

  12. MTI’s growth estimates Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore

  13. Singapore’s forecasts • Growth forecast for 2009 from -1 to +2 percent to -2 to +1 percent to -5 to -2 percent on 21 January 2009 • Inflation forecast for 2009: -1 to 0 percent • Resident unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) for December 2008: 3.7 percent compared to 2.9 percent in March 2008

  14. Singapore’s catch-up growth FIGURE 1.8. The evolution of income per capita in the United States, United Kingdom, Spain, Singapore, Brazil, Guatemala, South Korea, Botswana, Nigeria and India, 1960-2000 Source: Acemoglu (2009)

  15. Singapore’s unemployment story

  16. Full References of Sources for Figures Used in Presentation: • Blanchard, Olivier, 2008, “The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms, and Appropriate Policies,” MIT Department of Economics Working Paper Series, Number 09-01, December. • Acemoglu, Daron, 2009, Introduction to Modern Economic Growth, Princeton and Oxford, Princeton University Press.

  17. Thank You