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Extreme Contingency Analysis 2006 & 2016 4 th BTA Presentation. Bob Smith Manager Transmission Planning June 6, 2006. Study Assumptions. Utilize the 2006 heavy summer power flow case and re-run worst outage for 2016 Severity of outage determined by the ability to serve Phoenix load

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extreme contingency analysis 2006 2016 4 th bta presentation

Extreme Contingency Analysis2006 & 20164th BTA Presentation

Bob Smith

Manager Transmission Planning

June 6, 2006

study assumptions
Study Assumptions
  • Utilize the 2006 heavy summer power flow case and re-run worst outage for 2016
    • Severity of outage determined by the ability to serve Phoenix load
  • Corridors were chosen based upon exposure to forest fires
    • Cholla-Saguaro and Coronado-Silverking 500kV lines
    • Navajo South 500kV lines
    • Four Corners-Cholla-Pinnacle Peak 345kV lines
    • Glen Canyon-Flagstaff-Pinnacle Peak 345kV lines
    • PV East corridor not studied because there is no forestation

4th BTA

study assumptions3
Study Assumptions
  • Transformer banks studied
    • Kyrene 500/230kV
    • Browning 500/230kV
  • Transformer banks not studied
    • Westwing 500/230kV transformers have additional spacing, fire walls, fire suppression, and oil retention pits
    • Rudd 500/230kV transformer outage is equivalent to outage of Palo Verde-Rudd 500kV line
    • Pinnacle Peak 345/230kV transformer outage is equivalent to outages of the 345kV lines into Pinnacle Peak.

4th BTA

slide4

ARIZONA STATE EHV MAP

GLEN CANYON

TO

NAVAJO

CRYSTAL

FOUR

CORNERS

MOENKOPI

TO CALIF.

TO MEAD /

MARKETPLACE

SELIGMAN

COCONINO

ROUND

YAVAPAI

VERDE

FLAGSTAFF

VALLEY

CHOLLA

CORONADO

PREACHER

GAVILAN

CANYON

PEAK

WEST

WING

PINNACLE PEAK

PALO VERDE-

LIBERTY

KYRENE

HASSAYAMPA

RUDD

SILVERKING

JOJOBA

BROWNING

KNOX

DESERT

REDHAWK

BASIN

CASA

GILA RIVER

TO CALIF.

GRANDE

N.GILA

SANTA

500KV

ROSA

GILA BEND

TAT MOMOLI

SAGUARO

YUCCA

LEGEND

TUCSON

EXISTING 500 KV LINES

EXISTING 345 KV LINES

EXISTING 230 KV LINES

POWER PLANT

EXISTING 115 KV LINES

NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

115KV & ABOVE SUBSTATION (EXISTING)

5/23/06

NORTH

Substation locations and line routings depict an electrical connection only and

Transmission Planning

4th BTA

do

not

reflect any assumed physical locations or routing.

slide5

ARIZONA STATE EHV MAP

GLEN CANYON

TO

NAVAJO

CRYSTAL

FOUR

CORNERS

MOENKOPI

TO CALIF.

TO MEAD /

MARKETPLACE

SELIGMAN

COCONINO

ROUND

YAVAPAI

VERDE

FLAGSTAFF

VALLEY

CHOLLA

CORONADO

PREACHER

GAVILAN

CANYON

PEAK

WEST

WING

PINNACLE PEAK

PALO VERDE-

LIBERTY

KYRENE

HASSAYAMPA

RUDD

SILVERKING

JOJOBA

BROWNING

KNOX

DESERT

REDHAWK

BASIN

CASA

GILA RIVER

TO CALIF.

GRANDE

N.GILA

SANTA

500KV

ROSA

GILA BEND

TAT MOMOLI

SAGUARO

YUCCA

LEGEND

TUCSON

EXISTING 500 KV LINES

EXISTING 345 KV LINES

EXISTING 230 KV LINES

POWER PLANT

EXISTING 115 KV LINES

NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

115KV & ABOVE SUBSTATION (EXISTING)

5/23/06

NORTH

Substation locations and line routings depict an electrical connection only and

Transmission Planning

4th BTA

do

not

reflect any assumed physical locations or routing.

summary of results 2006
SUMMARY OF RESULTS (2006)
  • For all outages studied all load can be served & local Phoenix reserve requirements met
    • Some outages from remote generation would require redispatching from other available sources
      • Maximum redispatch requirement is ~800MW @ Navajo
      • Generation made up from available AZ and CA units
    • Some outages would require some system reconfiguration to alleviate overloads
    • Without system reconfiguration load reduction of up to 200MW is required for outages of corridors into Pinnacle Peak

4th BTA

summary of results 2016
SUMMARY OF RESULTS (2016)
  • Outages of the lines coming into Pinnacle Peak were re-examined
    • For Glen Canyon to Pinnacle Peak outages, Glen Canyon remote generation needs to be redispatched; independent of Phoenix load
    • No system reconfiguration required
    • Phoenix local reserve requirement met
    • TS9 to Raceway 500kV line mitigates those outages

4th BTA

slide8

RACEWAY

ARIZONA STATE EHV MAP

GLEN CANYON

TO

NAVAJO

CRYSTAL

FOUR

CORNERS

MOENKOPI

TO CALIF.

TO MEAD /

MARKETPLACE

SELIGMAN

COCONINO

ROUND

YAVAPAI

VERDE

FLAGSTAFF

VALLEY

CHOLLA

CORONADO

PREACHER

GAVILAN

CANYON

PEAK

WEST

WING

PINNACLE PEAK

PALO VERDE-

LIBERTY

KYRENE

HASSAYAMPA

RUDD

SILVERKING

JOJOBA

BROWNING

KNOX

DESERT

REDHAWK

BASIN

CASA

GILA RIVER

TO CALIF.

GRANDE

N.GILA

SANTA

500KV

ROSA

GILA BEND

TAT MOMOLI

SAGUARO

YUCCA

LEGEND

TUCSON

EXISTING 500 KV LINES

EXISTING 345 KV LINES

EXISTING 230 KV LINES

POWER PLANT

EXISTING 115 KV LINES

NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

115KV & ABOVE SUBSTATION (EXISTING)

5/23/06

NORTH

Substation locations and line routings depict an electrical connection only and

Transmission Planning

4th BTA

do

not

reflect any assumed physical locations or routing.

slide11

PHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2006)

Comparison

13000

12000

PEAK = 11,434 MW

11000

10000

Import = 9,250 MW

1,009 GWH

1,140 MW

9000

Import = 8110 MW

8000

7000

LOAD (MW)

6000

5000

4000

640 HOURS

VALLEY LOAD

3000

2000

Total Valley Energy = 50,873 GWH

1000

0

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

HOURS

4th BTA