THE EVOLUTION OF GREEN REVOLUTION IN ASIA AND ITS TRANSFERABILITY TO CONTEMPORARY SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Keijiro Otsuka Jonna P. Estudillo FASID
Essence of the Green Revolution in Asia • Development and diffusion of a series of fertilizer-responsive, high-yielding MVs in irrigated and favorable rainfed areas. • The Asian Green Revolution entailed a long-term process spanning more than the three decades since the mid-1960s.
Changes in Rice and Non-Rice Crop Yields in Tropical Asia and SSA Data source: FAOStat, online.
Major findings from yield trends in Asia and SSA • Yields of both rice and non-rice crops were not so different between Asia and SSA before the late 1960s. This observation suggests that the difference in agro-climate is unlikely to be a major reason for the difference in yield between the two continents. • Rice Green Revolution began earlier than non-rice Green Revolution in Asia.
Hypotheses • Asian Green Revolution was technology-led. -- Wide adoption of early generation MVs increased yield without accompanying major institutional changes. • Asia Green Revolution was supported by subsequent changes in policies and institutions. -- Increased investments in irrigation and research and subsidy programs for purchased inputs were induced to take place later.
Markets (fertilizer, seeds and credit) R & D/ Extension Green Revolution Irrigation The Interrelationships between Technology, Extension, Input Markets, and Irrigation Investments
MV Adoption and IrrigationRatio in the Philippines Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
MV Adoption and Irrigation Ratio in India Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
MV Adoption and Irrigation Ratio in Bangladesh Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
Number of scientists and released improved rice varieties in selected Asian countries Data source: M.Hossain et al. in Evenson and Golin, eds. (2003), Table 5.1, p.76 for data on rice scientists and Table 5.3, p.79 for data on improved rice varieties.
Common Findings from Asian Experience (I) • The rate of MV adoption far exceeded the irrigation ratio in the early period of Green Revolution, implying that rice MVs were widely adopted, not only in irrigated areas, but also in rainfed areas. • Irrigation ratio and the number of researchers and research publications increased in the 1980s, which may suggest that MV adoption stimulated investments in irrigation and national research programs by increasing the rate of return to such investments.
Fertilizer Use and Yieldin the Philippines Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
Fertilizer Use and Yieldin India Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
Fertilizer Use and Yieldin Bangladesh Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
Fertilizer Price-Rice Price Ratio Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
Common Findings from Asian Experience (II) • Rice yield and fertilizer use increased simultaneously over time, suggesting the critical importance of fertilizer in yield growth. • Such continuous increase in fertilizer use cannot be explained by changes in real fertilizer price alone. -- We suspect that fertilizer subsidy program helped but further development of fertilizer-responsive varieties was the key in boosting fertilizer use.
Adoption of MVs, fertilizer use, and rice yield in Central Luzon, the Philippines, 1966-2004 Data source: Central Luzon Loop Surveys, IRRI.
Findings from Central Luzon, the Philippines • Farmers were quick in adopting newer and better MVs. • Fertilizer application rose over time more remarkably from the mid-1980s with the advent of MV3. • Consequently, rice yield nearly doubled from the level of about 2 tons to 4 tons per hectare per season.
How can we realize a GR in SSA? • Develop improved technology or transfer appropriate technology from Asia. • Strengthen capacity of extension, together with applied research at the national programs. • Support dissemination of new technology by investing in low-cost irrigation and marketing infrastructure. • Recognize the inducement effects of new promising technology on investments in extension, irrigation, and marketing.
Plans for Future • Explore further the evolutionary processes of Green Revolution in Asia. • Cover not only rice but also other crops, particularly maize. • Review the literature on agriculture in SSA to assess the transferability of technologies from Asia. • Review the literature on success stories in SSA to identify whether market and other institutions respond to profitable opportunities opened up by the adoption of new technology.