Scope of Presentation

1. An International Assessment of the Role of Agricultural Science and Technology for Developmenton behalf of Hans, Judi and Boband the SecretariatBangkokMay, 2006

2. Scope of Presentation • Peer-review process: Roles and Responsibilities of authors and review editors • What is an Assessment and the features of a good Executive Summary • Elements of the IAASTD • Next Steps

3. Peer-Review Process: Roles and Responsibilities of Authors and Review Editors

4. Peer-Review Process • Final draft chapters to Secretariat by July 25 • Executive Summary • Agreed format • High quality tables and graphics • Well referenced • Secretariat needs at least 3 weeks • Sent to experts and governments for review on August 11 • Comments back to Secretariat by September 22 • Collated and un-collated comments on web by October 7 • Third authors meeting: November 6-10 • Suggest half day with CLAs • Five days for all authors

5. Review Editors • Nomination deadline for review editors is May 22 (with vitae) or May 12 (without vitae) – please send names and vitae or at least names and contact information – 2-3 page vitae • Names will be sent to Bureau for approval by June 7 • Work with the chapter authors to assess how to take into account the peer-review comments • Especially for controversial and contentious issues • Final decision regarding the text is with the authors • If there is a difference of opinion between the authors and review editors, the authors and editors opinions are referred to the co-chairs and director to mediate • Review editors will attend the 3rd and 4th global authors meetings

6. What is an Assessment and the Characteristics of an Executive Summary

7. IAASTD Characteristics Agreed features: • Present local, regional and global perspective • Conducted according to an open, transparent, representative and legitimate process • Evidence-based, not based on value systems • Policy relevant, not policy prescriptive, presenting options not recommendations • Present different views • Quantify uncertainties

8. What is an Assessment? • An assessment is a critical evaluation of information, for purposes of guiding decisions on a complex, public issue • Assessments should reduce complexity but add value by summarisation, synthesis and sorting what is known and widely accepted from what is not known (or not agreed) • Assessments relate to the situation at a particular time and in a given geographical domain

9. Assessment vs Review

10. Features of a good executive summary • Highlights key findings (decision maker relevant) supported by arguments/evidence • Should follow the chapter outline but don’t have to have to have key findings for all the sections • Be brief but not cryptic - avoid ambiguity and generalities • Tone has to be consistent with the chapter • State degree of confidence wherever possible - robust findings and key uncertainties • No literature references • Should identify gaps - what do we know and what we don’t know • Has to be transferable into the Summary for Decision makers • Text should be user friendly - not too technical

11. Example of bullets from exec summaries • The risk of extinction will increase for many species that are already vulnerable. Species with limited climatic ranges and/or restricted habitat requirements and/or small populations are typically the most vulnerable to extinction, such as endemic mountain species and biota restricted to islands (e.g., birds), peninsulas (e.g., Cape Floral Kingdom), or coastal areas (e.g., mangroves, coastal wetlands, and coral reefs). In contrast, species with extensive, non-patchy ranges, long-range dispersal mechanisms, and large populations are at less risk of extinction. While there is little evidence to suggest that climate change will slow species losses, there is evidence it may increase species losses. In some regions there may be an increase in local biodiversity—usually as a result of species introductions, the long-term consequences of which are hard to foresee.

12. Example of bullets from exec summaries • Recent regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature, have already affected hydrological systems and terrestrial and marine ecosystems in many parts of the world.The observed changes in these systems are coherent across diverse localities and/or regions and are consistent in direction with the expected effects of regional changes in temperature. The probability that the observed changes in the expected direction (with no reference to magnitude) could occur by chance alone is negligible.

13. Example of bullets from exec summaries • Models of cereal crops indicate that in some temperate areas potential yields increase with small increases in temperature but decrease with larger temperature changes (medium to low confidence), where-as in most tropical and subtropical regions, potential yields are projected to decrease for most projected increases in temperature (medium confidence). Where there is also a large decrease in rainfall in subtropical and tropical dryland/rainfed systems, crop yields would be even more adversely affected. These estimates include some adaptive responses by farmers and the beneficial effects of CO2 fertilization, but not the impact of projected increases in pest infestations and changes in climate extremes. The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the physiological stresses associated with climate change is poorly known. Warming of a few ºC or more is projected to increase food prices globally, and may increase the risk of hunger in vulnerable populations.

14. Example of bullets from exec summaries • Climate change will exacerbate water shortages in many water-scarce areas of the world.Demand for water is generally increasing due to population growth and economic development, but is falling in some countries because of increased efficiency of use. Climate change is projected to substantially reduce available water (as reflected by projected runoff) in many of the water-scarce areas of the world, but to increase it in some other areas (medium confidence). Freshwater quality generally would be degraded by higher water temperatures (high confidence), but this may be offset in some regions by increased flows.

15. Elements of the IAASTD

16. Elements of the IAASTD • Global Assessment • 10 chapters (about 50 pages each, excluding references), each with a 2-3 page executive summary • 5-15 page Summary for Decision Makers • Five Sub-global Assessments • 5 chapters (about 50 pages each, excluding references), , each with a 2-3 page executive summary • 5-10 page Summary for Decision Makers • Synthesis Report • 50 pages • Summary for Decision Makers of 5-10 pages

17. Summary for Decision Makers The most critical element of the assessment • written for policymakers in less technical language • summarizes the most policy-relevant conclusions • ensures government/stakeholder ownership of the conclusions • written by the experts - normally the Co-chairs, Director and Chapter CLAs, with critical input by the lead authors • peer-reviewed by all lead authors, experts and governments • 5-15 pages, including figures • approved by governments/stakeholders in plenary line-by-line, but with experts in attendance ensuring total consistency with the underlying reports

18. Synthesis Report • Synthesizes the key findings from the global and sub-global assessments • Summarizes conclusions that are globally relevant, while highlighting regional/sub-regional differences • Will focus on the development goals and the cross-cutting issues • NRM (availability, access) emphasis on water • Markets • Public and private sector investments in AKST and possibly other specific public policy issues, e.g., • Human health, including animal-human health interactions • Aquaculture, biofuels, transgenics • A 25-50 page report and a 5-10 page summary for decision Makers • Simultaneous expert and government review • SPM approved line by line, longer report adopted paragraph by paragraph

19. Next Steps

20. Next Steps • Finalize chapters, including executive summaries, figures, tables and references • LAs need to support their CLAs • Please submit promised text on time • Secretariat can facilitate teleconferences among and between author teams if needed • Please put your Chapters on the web so that we can ensure consistency across chapters • Do not avoid potentially controversial issues • Use terms consistent with the glossary • Biotechnology, institutions, poverty, …………

21. Next Steps • The co-Chairs, in collaboration with the Secretariat, and in consultation with IWMI, decide on whether to hold the third global lead authors meeting in Sri Lanka or move it – likely to South Africa • your input to our decision is vital – you must feel safe • We will make a decision and inform you within one month

22. Final Words Thank you for all your hard work – we recognize you all have very busy lives and this is a major sacrifice of your time and takes you away from your families, friends and organizations The spirit at this meeting has been outstanding and bodes well for the future Once again, thank you