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2008 Washington State Hay Situation and Outlook. J. Shannon Neibergs 1 , William T. W. Woodward 2 and Phil J. Peterson 3. 1,3 WSU Extension and 2 Columbia Basin College. ...Challenges. Facing Agricultural Producers. “Fight for Food or Fuel” Structural Change in Supply Response

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2008 washington state hay situation and outlook

2008 Washington State Hay Situation and Outlook

J. Shannon Neibergs1, William T. W. Woodward2

and Phil J. Peterson3

1,3 WSU Extension and 2Columbia Basin College

slide2

...Challenges...

Facing Agricultural Producers

  • “Fight for Food or Fuel”
  • Structural Change in Supply Response
  • Globalization
  • Marketing
monthly buy sell and reinvest hypothetical 100 000 investment light crude vs wa alfalfa hay
Monthly Buy – Sell and ReinvestHypothetical $100,000 Investment Light Crude vs WA Alfalfa Hay
monthly buy sell and reinvest hypothetical 100 000 investment light crude vs wa alfalfa hay1
Monthly Buy – Sell and ReinvestHypothetical $100,000 Investment Light Crude vs WA Alfalfa Hay
wa acres harvested
WA Acres Harvested

All Hay Acres up

20,000 acres

+2.6%

Alfalfa Acres down

10,000 acres

-2.3%

wa hay production and yield
WA Hay Production and Yield

All Hay up

173,000 tons

+5.6%

Alfalfa up

80,000 tons

+3.7%

usda annual average price cash versus deflated prices
USDA Annual Average Price Cash versus Deflated Prices

$138

$67

Price deflation index, 1982 = 100

2007 milk price record high
2007 Milk Price – Record High

http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairy/mncs/graphs/DY20070105aClassIII.pdf

the feed pyramid for dairy cows
The Feed Pyramid for Dairy Cows

http://www.extension.umn.edu/dairy/dairystar/05-12-07-Paulson.htm

california is clearly a hay deficit state
California is clearly a hay deficit state

Idaho’s index has increased from 46 in 2000 to 66 in 2007.

other domestic demand factors
Other Domestic Demand Factors

Steady beef cattle and

Calves January 1 inventory

Horse Numbers -

Unknown

but Willing to Pay

for Quality Hay

year to date pacific rim hay imports from all countries
Year to date Pacific Rim Hay ImportsFrom ALL countries
  • 2007 YTD total Pacific Rim imports are 99% of 2006
  • Japan small decrease offset by Korea increase
  • USA captures 91% of Korean increase
  • Not shown by graph, but in the data USA exports increase 83,427 metric tons from ’06 to ’07 – a 4% increase
exchange rate trends
Exchange Rate Trends

Note “strengthening” of the Loonie and relative “weakening” of the Yen

2008 hay outlook
2008 Hay Outlook

Current Production 7,195 Mil. Gal. Expansion Capacity 6,960 Mil. Gal.

http://www.card.iastate.edu/research/bio/tools/ethanol.aspx

all hay stocks and production
All Hay Stocks and Production

Washington end of year stocks are tight – PNW stocks are very tight

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Washington/Publications/Agri-facts/agri2may.pdf

monthly price trends for wa alfalfa hay
Monthly Price Trends for WA Alfalfa Hay
  • Consistent June price spike
  • Continually increasing price trend since 2006
  • $15 per ton increase in 2006 and $25 per ton in 2007

2007

2006

Average

slide28

California is the Price Leader in the Hay Market

http://alfalfa.ucdavis.edu/#acreages