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Understanding and Managing Incidence in Marketing Research

Learn how to calculate and manage incidence in marketing research to effectively reach qualified respondents. This seminar will cover the frequency of occurrence, study vs. net effective incidence, and factors impacting overall incidence.

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Understanding and Managing Incidence in Marketing Research

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  1. Southern California MRA Education Seminar Marketing Systems Group Incidence: Calculating, Understanding, Managing Presentation September 17, 2005

  2. Incidence Incidence: The frequency of something occurring in the population. It usually refers to persons and is stated as a percentage (i.e. the percentage of people in the US who eat cereal for breakfast). In marketing and opinion research, incidence is a measure of the level of effort needed to reach qualified or eligible respondents. • Source: MRA Web Site

  3. Calculating Incidence • Based on screened households; completes, qualified terminates, not qualified terminates and over quotas • Qualified Respondents / Qualified + not qualified respondents • Qualified Respondents = Completes and mid interview break-offs (qualified terminates) • Not Qualified Respondents = terminates from screening and over quotas

  4. Calculating Incidence • Standard equation for calculating incidence (Completes + Qualified Terminates) -------------------------------------------- (Completes + Qualified Terminates + Not Qualified + Over Quota) Source: MRA web site and Researchinfo.com

  5. Calculating Incidence

  6. Calculating Incidence Completes / Completes + Terminates 400 Completes / 400 Completes + 319 Terminates 55.63% Incidence

  7. Study Incidence vs. Net Effective Incidence • According to the MRA • The Study Incidence is the percent of the population that qualifies for the study • The Net Effective Incidence “measures the amount of work it takes to achieve a particular study goal”

  8. Study Incidence vs. Net Effective Incidence • ComponentsCM = Completes OQ = Over Quota BO = Breakoffs (Qualified) TQ = Terminates • Difference in how “Over Quotas” are treated

  9. Study Incidence • Study Incidence calculation includes Over Quota in the top number among qualified respondents. CM + OQ + BO ------------------- CM + OQ + BO + TQ

  10. Net Effective Incidence • Net Effective Incidence calculation does not include Over Quota in the top number among qualified respondents, only in the denominator CM + BO ------------------- CM + OQ + BO + TQ

  11. Study Incidence vs. Net Effective Incidence Study Incidence = 71.42% 100 + 10 + 15 ------------ 100 + 10 + 50 + 15

  12. Study Incidence vs. Net Effective Incidence Net Effective Incidence = 62.86% 100 + 10 ------------ 100 + 10 + 50 + 15

  13. Net Incidence • Net Incidence • Estimated net incidence after factoring in all incidence figures • Targeting Males 18 to 34, Own a Product, have a cell phone • Males 18-34 = 24%, • Product ownership = 65%, • Cell phone ownership = 65% • Net Incidence = 24% * 65% * 65% = 10.14%

  14. Calculating Overall Incidence • Over Quotas and Hard to Reach Groups • Los Angeles County – 400 completes – 100 completes per ethnic group • Census Estimates for an RDD sample • White = 29.8%, Black = 8.9%, • Hispanic = 46.8%, Asians = 12.4% • Completes will fall in as you screen for the hard to reach group

  15. Calculating Overall Incidence • Calculate number of screens needed for the hardest to reach group • 100 / 8.9% = 1124 contacts • Estimated qualified completes for other Groups • White 1124 * 29.8% = 326 • Hispanic 1124 * 46.8% = 526 • Asians 1124 * 12.4% = 139

  16. Calculating Overall Incidence • Anything over the 100 quota is an over quota • Overall Incidence calculated on total screens • 400 / 1124 = 35.58% • Other factors may decrease expected incidence • Incidence can be managed with the sample design

  17. Managing Incidence • Census Incidence

  18. Managing Incidence

  19. Managing Incidence • Incidence = 7.89% • 6 Completes / 76 Completes + Terminates • Refusal Rate = 24.752% • Refusals / Completes + Terms + Refusals

  20. Managing Incidence

  21. Managing Incidence • Incidence = 8.35% • 29 Completes / 347 Completes + Terminates • Refusal Rate = 14.742% • Refusals / Completes + Terms + Refusals

  22. Influences on Incidence • Order of Screening Questions • Asking sensitive questions up front • Screening for age in the intro • Wording of screening questions • Refusal Rate • Soft Refusals • Contact Rate • Manage incidence with the sample design

  23. Meg Ryan Marketing Systems Group / Genesys Mryan@m-s-g.com 800.336.7674

  24. Reference • www.mra-net.org • www.researchinfo.com

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