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Spatial Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation: Operational Applications in South Carolina PowerPoint Presentation
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Spatial Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation: Operational Applications in South Carolina. Jason Caldwell South Carolina State Climatology Office PAMS Mini-Technical Conference March 11, 2005. Geographical Influences on Tropical Precipitation. Appalachian Mountains.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Spatial DistributionofTropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation:

Operational Applications in South Carolina

Jason CaldwellSouth Carolina State Climatology OfficePAMS Mini-Technical ConferenceMarch 11, 2005

slide2

Geographical Influences on Tropical Precipitation

Appalachian Mountains

UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT

Atlantic Ocean

MOISTURE SOURCE

Gulf of Mexico

MOISTURE SOURCE

slide3

TROPICAL STORM STEERING MECHANISMS

SURFACE:

Central Atlantic Sub-Tropical HighExtends E-W with weakness SE US

500 MB:

Westerly Flow East Coast

Mid-Level Ridge over Central Atlantic

250 MB:

Trough over Midwest and Great Lakes

slide4

SOUTH CAROLINA TROPICAL STORMS

CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD (1871-2004)

TOTAL STORMS: 145

PERIOD CONSIDERED: 1950-2003

TOTAL 1950-2003: 70 STORMS

SELECTED TOTAL: 54 STORMS

slide5

Division 1Division 2Division 3Division 4Division 5Division 6Division 7Division 8

SELECTED TROPICAL STORM TRACKS AFFECTING SOUTH CAROLINA1950-2003

slide6

SITE SELECTION

  • 20 DAILY SITES
  • SPACING: 50-75 km
slide7

DIVISION 1Offshore Track

Helene 1958 Ginny 1963 Amy 1975 Arthur 1996

4 STORMS

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DIVISION 2East Florida LandfallSouth Carolina Track

Cleo 1964 Dora 1964 Dawn 1972 ST 3 1976 David 1979 Isidore 1984 Chris 1988 Jerry 1995 Kyle 2002

9 STORMS

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DIVISION 3West Florida LandfallOffshore Track

Donna 1960 Gladys 1968 Dennis 1981 Ana 1991 Irene 1999

5 STORMS

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DIVISION 4Panhandle Florida LandfallInland/Coastal Track

TS 7 1953 Florence 1953 Flossy 1956 TS 1 1957 Brenda 1960 Alma 1966 Alma 1970 Agnes 1972 Kate 1985 Allison 1995 Josephine 1996 Earl 1998 Gordon 2000

13 STORMS

slide11

DIVISION 5Gulf Coast/Panhandle LandfallTrack East of Appalachians

Hilda 1964 TS 1 1965 Babe 1977 Marco 1990 Helene 2000

5 STORMS

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DIVISION 6Gulf Coast/Panhandle LandfallTrack West of Appalachians

Danny 1985 Andrew 1992 Alberto 1994 Beryl 1994

4 STORMS

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DIVISION 7Direct Landfall South Carolina

Able 1952 TS 3 1953 Hazel 1954 Cindy 1959 Gracie 1959 Hugo 1989

6 STORMS

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DIVISION 8Direct Landfall North Carolina

Connie 1955 Diane 1955 Ione 1955 TS 6 1961 Diana 1984 Bertha 1996 Bonnie 1998 Floyd 1999

8 STORMS

slide15

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE

* Used Panhandle/Inland-Coast Track (Division 4)

Observed Precipitation

Division 4 Mean

slide16

HURRICANE CHARLEY

* Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7)

Observed Precipitation

Division 7 Mean

slide17

HURRICANE FRANCES

* Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6)

Observed Precipitation

Division 6 Mean

slide18

HURRICANE GASTON

* Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7)

Observed Precipitation

Division 7 Mean

slide19

HURRICANE IVAN

* Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6)

Observed Precipitation

Division 6 Mean

slide20

HURRICANE JEANNE

* E Florida/SC Track (Division 2)

Observed Precipitation

Division 2 Mean

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ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATOLOGY

Observed – Climatology = ERRORS

RANGE-4.60 (over-predicted) to +7.10 (under-predicted)

AVERAGE ERROR 2004-2.11 (Camden) to +0.56 (Calhoun Falls)

BONNIE

CHARLEY

FRANCES

GASTON

IVAN

JEANNE

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CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK------------------------------------------

  • UNDER-PREDICTS PRECIPITATION IN UPSTATE FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS & ALONG TRACK; OVER PREDICTION MORE SPORADIC
  • ADDITIONAL STATIONS ADDED TO ACQUIRE MORE COMPLETE DISTRIBUTION (REMOVE WALTERBORO, CAMDEN)
  • COMPARISON OF CLIMATOLOGY TO HPC FORECASTS
  • PREPARATION OF MAX/MIN DISTRIBUTIONS FOR FLOOD FORECAST ENHANCEMENT
  • POTENTIAL WORK WITH SERFC
  • STATISTICS, STATISTICS, STATISTICS ……
  • 15th CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (SAVANNAH, GA – JUNE 2005)