1 / 21

Planning for persistence in marine reserves - a question of catastrophic importance Eddie Game The Ecology Centre, Unive

Planning for persistence in marine reserves - a question of catastrophic importance Eddie Game The Ecology Centre, University of Queensland. Which areas are the most important to protect in order to conserve biodiversity?. pervasive assumptions of marine reserves. the reality…?.

anneke
Download Presentation

Planning for persistence in marine reserves - a question of catastrophic importance Eddie Game The Ecology Centre, Unive

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Planning for persistence in marine reserves - a question of catastrophic importance Eddie Game The Ecology Centre, University of Queensland

  2. Which areas are the most important to protect in order to conserve biodiversity?

  3. pervasive assumptions of marine reserves

  4. the reality…?

  5. Eliminated by reservation Minimisedby reservation

  6. “catastrophes may be more important in determining persistence time than any other factor usually considered” - Mangel and Tier (Ecology 1994) In 1998 and 2002 roughly 30% of GBR reefs suffered lethal bleaching Catastrophes must be considered…. …BUT AT WHAT COST?

  7. biodiversity + cost catastrophe risk

  8. Approaches to stochastic threats in conservation planning • The world in a model approach

  9. Approaches to stochastic threats in conservation planning 2. The sum of the parts approach

  10. Approaches to stochastic threats in conservation planning 3. The insurance approach

  11. biodiversity + cost catastrophe risk Key Point: Risk must be incorporated into the problem in a way that allows the correct trade-offs to be made!

  12. …..enter MarProb(yes – creative names are our real strength) The Problem: minimise the extent to which our conservation objectives are compromised due to uncontrollable catastrophes The Constraints: protect enough biodiversity and don’t spend too much money

  13. 30 reef bioregions Target = 20% of each

  14. The Problem: minimise the extent to which our conservation objectives are compromised due to uncontrollable catastrophes The Constraints: protect enough biodiversity and don’t spend too much money

  15. First calculate how much of each bioregion is represented in the reserve network Consider the probability that the reefs currently in the reserve system will be lost due to catastrophic coral bleaching Calculate the probability that each bioregion will fail to be adequately represented in the reserve network as a result Minimize this!

  16. Can be used for any problem where we have data on relative risk of threats or future changes • Changes in Pantanal flood regime with climate change (Brazil) • Patchy pelagic resources (Namibia + Australia) • Risk of land degradation through salinity and invasive weeds (Australia)

  17. good solutions are not necessarily expensive

  18. low risk sites are not necessarily the best

  19. Figure 1. Hughes et al. 2007 Should we protect those areas at low risk? Or Should we instead give the benefit of protection to those areas most at risk?

More Related