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Planning for persistence in marine reserves - a question of catastrophic importance Eddie Game The Ecology Centre, Unive

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Planning for persistence in marine reserves - a question of catastrophic importance Eddie Game The Ecology Centre, University of Queensland. Which areas are the most important to protect in order to conserve biodiversity?. pervasive assumptions of marine reserves. the reality…?.

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slide1

Planning for persistence in marine reserves

- a question of catastrophic importance

Eddie Game

The Ecology Centre,

University of Queensland

slide5

Eliminated by reservation

Minimisedby reservation

slide6

“catastrophes may be more important in determining persistence time than any other factor usually considered” - Mangel and Tier (Ecology 1994)

In 1998 and 2002 roughly 30% of GBR reefs suffered lethal bleaching

Catastrophes must be considered….

…BUT AT WHAT COST?

slide7

biodiversity

+

cost

catastrophe

risk

slide11

biodiversity

+

cost

catastrophe

risk

Key Point: Risk must be incorporated into the problem in a way that allows the correct trade-offs to be made!

slide12

…..enter MarProb(yes – creative names are our real strength)

The Problem: minimise the extent to which our conservation objectives are compromised due to uncontrollable catastrophes

The Constraints: protect enough biodiversity and don’t spend too much money

slide13

30 reef bioregions

Target = 20% of each

slide14

The Problem: minimise the extent to which our conservation objectives are compromised due to uncontrollable catastrophes

The Constraints: protect enough biodiversity and don’t spend too much money

slide16

First calculate how much of each bioregion is represented in the reserve network

Consider the probability that the reefs currently in the reserve system will be lost due to catastrophic coral bleaching

Calculate the probability that each bioregion will fail to be adequately represented in the reserve network as a result

Minimize this!

slide18

Can be used for any problem where we have data on relative risk of threats or future changes

    • Changes in Pantanal flood regime with climate change (Brazil)
    • Patchy pelagic resources (Namibia + Australia)
    • Risk of land degradation through salinity and invasive weeds (Australia)
slide21

Figure 1. Hughes et al. 2007

Should we protect those areas at low risk?

Or

Should we instead give the benefit of protection to those areas most at risk?