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Implications of American Community Survey for Rural Alaska: Challenges and Consequences

This presentation discusses the implementation of the American Community Survey (ACS) and its implications for rural Alaska. It delves into the collection of ACS data, challenges faced in rural areas, consequences of reduced response rates, comparability with the 2000 Census, and the impact on community development and planning processes. The speaker provides insights on sampling methodologies, survey data quality, and the importance of critically evaluating the results for informed decision-making in rural communities.

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Implications of American Community Survey for Rural Alaska: Challenges and Consequences

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  1. U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey: Implications for Rural Alaska Nicole Grewe, Ph.D. Division of Community & Regional Affairs Alaska Municipal League Annual Conference November 10 – 14, 2008 Angoon Kotzebue

  2. Reengineering the Decennial Census: • Decennial Census Short Form - Continued • Counts population • Decennial Census Long Form - Discontinued • Describes population • American Community Survey (ACS) - Implemented • Describes population

  3. Select ACS Characteristics Demographics: • Sex • Age • Race • Relationship • Household type Angoon

  4. Select ACS Characteristics Social: • School enrollment • Education • Marital Status • Veteran status • Place of birth • Citizenship • Language • Ancestry Gambell

  5. Select ACS Characteristics Economic: • Employment • Commute • Occupation • Industry • Class of worker • Income • Benefits • Poverty status Elfin Cove

  6. Select ACS Characteristics Housing: • Occupancy • Units in structure • Number of rooms • Housing tenure • Vehicles • House heating fuel • Value • Mortgage • Rent Hoonah

  7. ACS Sample The Sample: • ACS survey data is collected from every census area and borough in Alaska from independent monthly samples of randomly selected addresses. A Statistics Moment - Sampling Good Survey Data: • Sound sampling • Quality addresses for full sample distribution • High response rate

  8. 2000 Census vs. ACS Sample 2000 Census Sample: • 17% US households sampled • 50% rural AK households sampled ACS Sample: • 19% - 50% rural AK households sampled • Smaller sample size requires rolling averages 2000 Census vs. ACS Sample: • Moving or “rolling averages” • Different reporting periods • Different size samples • Smaller sample size increases sampling error

  9. ACS Challenges Response Rate: • Goal: mirror 2000 Census • Places > 65,000 population = 1 year tabulations • Places < 65,000 population = 3 or 5 year tabulations • Statewide data requires good response rates from both rural and urban places. Survey Instrument: • Mail-out/mail-back survey • Street address challenges • 2005 = “unmailable” + “undeliverable” surveys • Representation

  10. Rural Alaska Sample • Rural Alaska Challenges: • Reduced sample size • Significant quantity “unmailable” • Significant quantity “undeliverable”

  11. ACS Rural Data Consequences • Rural characteristics underrepresented. • Survey removals = smaller sample size and reduced confidence. • Marginal sample size may be so severely impacted the data is not released. Kasaan

  12. Remote Alaska Exception

  13. Comparability: ACS and 2000 Census • Target Population: • ACS = household • 2000 Census = population • Time Period • ACS = continuous rolling nature • 2000 Census = point in time estimate • Reference Time Periods: • ACS = 12 months prior, shifting months • 2000 Census = April 1, current decennial year

  14. ACS and Rural Alaska 5-Year Rolling Average: designed for ≤ 20,000 population. 27 Alaska Census Areas/Boroughs: • 81% < 20,000 • 67% < 10,000 • 30% < 5,000 148 Alaska Cities: • 98% < 20,000 • 83% < 1,000 • 26% < 200 Unincorporated Alaska Places: • 97% < 1,000 Ninilchik

  15. Research Consequences • More frequent data, but perhaps unreliable data. • Characteristic Comparability Challenges - describing the population differently. • Longitudinal Challenges – 2000 Census and ACS data often not comparable. • Potentially higher margins of errors. • Limited Test Data - 2010 ACS is test for rural AK.

  16. Community Development and Consequences • Potentially unreliable community demographics. • Challenges in tracking demographic community change over time. • Consequences for planning process. • Consequences for programmatic funding. • Be an informed user - critically evaluate.

  17. Questions or Comments? Nicole Grewe, Ph.D. Direct: (907) 465-8249 nicole.grewe@alaska.gov Craig

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