Agriculture and rural indicators in China Xu Zhiquan Rural Survey Organization, National Bureau Statistics of China
Agriculture and rural indicators in China • Part1. Review on the indicators • Part2. Underlying principle of the indicators designed • Part3. The impact evaluation of the indicators • Part4. Further issues • Part5. Conclusive comments
Part1Review on the indicators 1.1 The indicators of the Census • The agricultural indicators: on crops and livestock, use of machinery and irrigation • The rural development indicators • A. Environment for living and production. • B. Geographic environment of residents. • C. Infrastructure. • D.Information related to the TVEs • E. Indicators reflected to the small towns • F. Information related to the labors
1.2 The indicators of Current surveys • a. Agricultural indicators: input-output information on farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery. • b. Rural indicators: household survey; General economic; rural investments; education, technology, culture and public health; Development of TVEs. TV information.
1.3 The indicators of specific surveys • The indicators related to agriculture/rural area/farmers
1.4Questions • Why the agricultural indicators was expanded to agriculture and rural indicators? What is underlying principle of the indicators designed?
Part2 Underlying principle of the indicators designed2.1 Theory of 3 dimensional rural issues:Basic principle for the indicators designed Theory of ‘three dimensional rural issues’ referring to issues concerning agriculture, rural area, and farmers. The main contents of the theory are as follows:
2.11 Agricultural issue: strenuous man-land relationship Population: 1.276 billion Cultivated land 1.95 billion mu (15mu=1ha) ---Per capita Cultivated land 1.2 mu. ---The population is increasing year by year and the cultivated land is decreasing year by year. ---Agricultural products supply always is one of the top concerns for the governments
2.12 Rural area issue: poor and poverty Due to the typical rural-urban dual structure in China. In comparison, rural area is poorer and much more under-civilized. ---Per capita per-day income of rural households is 6.5yuan=0.79$ . Under the UN standard. ---Poverty population is 30 million ( per-day under 2 yuan ). ---Increasing of per capita income is slow down. ---Infrastructure insufficient.
2.13 Farmers issue: employment Total labors is 500 million estimated. ---Agricultural operation need 150 million, ---TVEs 120 million, ---Floating between rural and urban 80 million, ---Remain labors 150 million.
2.14 Disparities between rural and urban • Like many other developing countries, there are large disparities between rural and urban in many aspects, such as economic status and living standards. In 2001, the per capita income: ---For urban residents reached 6860 yuan (2001). ---For rural households was 2366 yuan (2001).
2.15 Three dimensions of an integrated rural system • Dependent on each other • Influence each other • Promote each other for ward • The government always follows this principle to launch development strategies and policies. • It’s required that the indicators cover not only agriculture, but also rural area and farmers.
2.2 Three dimensional indicators system Feature of agriculture and rural indicators: ---Agriculture-related indicator system. The core indicator is grain yield. ---Rural development indicator system. The core indicators is the TVEs and investment and employment . ---Rural household level indicator system. The guiding indicator is income.
Part3 The impact evaluation of agriculture and rural indicators • 3.1 If the indicators can well demonstrate the inherent linkage, joint development, and tendency of three-dimensional rural issues. • 3.2 If the indicators can truly reflect the performance in the sectors. • 3.3 If the indicators can meet the demands of all sorts of users, particularly policy makers.
3.1 The indicators can well reflect the inherent linkage, joint development, and tendency of three-dimensional rural issues • 3.11 Agricultural indicator system • 3.12 Rural development indicator system • 3.13 Rural household related indicators system • 3.14 The relationships among three dimensional rural issues
3.11 Agricultural indicator system • As the most important, grain yield increased 48.5% during 1978 and 2001. The main contributors are the changes of input, farming systems and supply-demand status. • ---In 1980s, HCRS contributed 46.9%. • ---Input of fertilizer 32.2%, • ---Price increase contributed 15.9%. • ---In 1990s main contributors are the changes of policies; market demand
3.12 indicators related to rural development Output value of TVEs is a of leading indicators among rural development. ---It close to the small towns ---It depends on and then promotes the improvement of rural infrastructure, culture and education. ---It close to the growth of rural investment ---It close to the employment
3.13 Rural household related indicators system • Income plays a very important role in rural household related indicators. The correlation coefficient between income and other indicators such as: • ---Household size (-0.5251), • ---Percentage of labors attained senior middle school or higher education (0.7189), • ---Wage income from working outside (0.9416), • ---Expenditure (0.9652). • ---Besides, operation type, living environment, are also dimensions along which income varies.
3.14 The relationships among three dimensional rural issues • The correlation analysis by using 1978-2001 time series of grain yield, output value of TVEs, and per capita income of rural household. measured by correlation coefficient • ---Between grain yield and income (0.856) • ---Grain yield and output value of TVEs (0.772) • ---Income and output value of TVEs (0.98). • ---The correlation coefficient is even larger for central and western China.
3.2 The indicators can truly reflect the performance in the sectors • 3.21Agricultural indicators has been perfected progressively after years of adjustment. The data can be used to seasonally or annually trace, describe or estimate: • --- The way of crop growing, • ----Supply of agriculture, • --- Transition of agricultural structure, • --- Change of production capacity, • ---Tendency of agricultural development.
3.22 Rural development indicators has function in monitoring urbanization and industrialization of countryside, construction of rural infrastructure and changing of living environment. The census has played an important role in • (a) verifying the data about TVEs, • (b) collecting information related to small towns, • (c) fully investigating rural infrastructure and production/living standard, and • (d) monitoring the changing tendency of rural development.
3.23 Household survey indicators can be used to monitor: --- Income and expenditure growth, --- Change of production and living standard, --- Change of employment and ---Poverty status and poverty-reduction progression of rural households. ---Data from the census help to identify who is the poor and how to locate poor households in small area.
3.3 The indicators can well meet the demands of all sorts of users particularly policy makers • 3.31 The data from the census and current survey place an essential foundation for all levels of governments • ---To stipulate strategic programs and • ---To stipulate five-year plans, • ---To make policies, and • ---To carry out macro regulations and controls.
3.32 The indicators benefits farmers and other sorts of users ---We gradual adjusted the indicator system to meet the requirements of all users. ---In practice, production data affect the purchase-and-sale behavior of related industrial enterprises in a very profound way. ---The price data of livestock directly determine farmer’s animal raising composition. ---The data from census benefits the enterprises of agriculture concerned in small areas.
3.33 The indicators helps the international society to better understand China Agriculture and rural indicators is also an ideal instrument for carrying out monitoring survey on foreign assisted projects
Part 4 Further issues • 4.1 Indicators related to Sustainability • 4.2 Indicators related to rural household’s production and living • 4.3 Indicators closely related to market 4.4 Coverage of agriculture and rural area. • 4.5 To improve the share of statistical information
4.1. Indicators close to sustainability ---The per capita area of cultivated land in China is equivalent to 41% of the global level. ---China only takes one fourth of the world water resource, and the water shortage in some cities ---More emergency is for China to bring more improvement to environment relatedindicators.
4.2 Indicators related to rural household’s production and living ---Transportation ---Power providing ---Safe drinking water ---Dwelling status ---Education ---Culture ---Health services
4.3 Indicators close to market The indicators should meet the requirement of market as the follows: ---Micro data of on supply and demand of grain, ---Intermediate cost of planting crops ---Intermediate cost Raising animals ---Cost-benefit management ---The market price of agricultural products. ---Agricultural accounting system
4.4. Coverage of agriculture and rural area ---The combination of agricultural and rural to an integrated indicators system resulted in a new problem of inconsistency of the coverage. ---Special attention should be given to this issue whether by current survey or by the new census. Agricultural indicators should cover rural area and cities with agricultural activities, while rural indicators exclude urban area.
4.5 To improve the share of census and survey results (a)The unification of rural indicators (b)The consistency and comparability of definition, classification, and coverage of the indicators. (c)Openness, transparency of data dissemination, (d) The improvement of data availability and usability. All those pose some new requirement on agriculture and rural indicators.
Part 5 Conclusive comments 5.1 Indicators: from agriculture to rural The expansion from agriculture to rural indicators is not the change of agricultural conception, but to better adaptation to the typical feature of rural-urban dual structure, and to better reflect linkage between agriculture, rural area and farmers.
5.2 Efficiency of the indicators • In this article, we managed to confirm the efficiency of agriculture and rural indicators through examination the inter-relationship among the indicators, function in sector performance monitoring, and the satisfaction of users. From this evaluation approach, the indicators is efficient.
5.3 Indicators of the census and current surveys ---How can the indicators better adapt to the new features of the 3 dimensional rural issues after the middle of 1990s? ---To deeply study the relationship among indicators and to simplify the indicators to lighten the workload of fieldwork, especially for those underdeveloped areas. ---To further clarify the linkage, especially for indicators classification and data link up, between census and current surveys.
5.4 Indicators of sustainability • ---To clarify the relationship between short-term development and sustainable development when setting up indicators. • ---To focus on the establishment of following indictor groups: the exploitation/ protection/ economization of water resource, grain for green and vegetation restoration, and soil erosion controlling. • ---To carefully classify which indicators will be introduced into the new census, and which are suitable for sample surveys.